India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) scrapped Article 370 and 35A on the promise that the decision would be pivotal in the prosperity of Indian-administered Kashmir. However, the promises went wrong, and the facts and graphs tell a different story. A story where there is a sharp decrease in development, and none of the promises have been fulfilled since 2019.

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India asserts that the revocation of Article 370 has controlled terrorism and cross-border infiltration, presenting a story of development in the region. Official statistics indicate a significant drop in terrorism activities from 143 in 2018 to 28 in 2021, representing a total 90% decrease. Ground realities are the opposite. Unemployment has surpassed 25% and the private sector is stagnant. Tourism, a crucial economic pillar, has seen only 84,000 tourists since August 2019, compared to over a million per year during 2011to 2014.

India Spend documents an 86% drop in tourism, and average monthly earnings dropped from Rs 22,000 to Rs 6,000. However, the roads, tunnels, flyovers, and other related infrastructure have been improved in the past two years, and it is expected that this will bring the required results to the valley.

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Since the August 2019 revocation of Article 370, the Indian-held Kashmir region has seen a profound economic downturn, hidden behind official reports of forward progress. The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry puts job losses in the tourism and handicraft sectors, which had been critical to the local economy, at over 144,500. Total commercial losses have been in excess of ?15,000 crore, leading to the loss of nearly half a million jobs. Families are now living on credit, and several students are being pushed out of school as school fees remain unpaid. Despite assertions of ?56,000 crore of central aid, Kashmiri politicians such as former Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti have rejected such figures as false, pointing to government figures of economic backsliding rather than development.

The Kashmiri government has introduced property taxes of 5% for residential and 6% for non-residential real estate, causing problems for the populace. Kashmiri Pandits have been protesting over unpaid wages since mid-2022, while land policies alarm settler colonialism. Apple farmers have lost billions due to poor infrastructure and failed logistics. Residents of Ladakh, Leh, and Kargil demand statehood, citing broken promises and unemployment. The economic collapse has increased mental health concerns, with PTSD and depression cases, highlighting the burden of political decisions on Kashmiris.

In the late colonial era, Jamaat-e-Islami was a socio-political reform movement that aimed to educate and empower South Asian Muslims. Its Kashmiri wing, separate from its Indian and Pakistani ones, was an inspiration to young, educated Kashmiris looking for direction and identity. Taking a principled stance on the resolution of the Kashmir problem in the framework of United Nations resolutions and the aspirations of the people, Jamaat shifted its emphasis progressively from political struggle to educational empowerment. It did so through its Falah-i-Aam Trust (FAT) schools.

As of 2016, FAT operated 215 schools, providing education to more than 80,000 disadvantaged and orphaned children.However, this lifeline of education was cut off. In March 2019, a few months before the abrogation, the Jamaat was banned under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) and many of its members were arrested. And by June 2022, the Indian government directed the FAT schools to be shut down, leaving 10,000 children in the lurch. The crackdown did not start and end in the classroom: members were arrested, lost their means of livelihood, and their voices were silenced. Ghulam Mohammad Bhat's custodial death was a stark symbol of this crackdown.

Education in Kashmir under Indian occupation is threatened by internet shutdowns, curfews, and campus bans, resulting in only 8.4% of men and 2.8% of women graduating annually. Kashmiri students, many scholarship holders, face harassment and exclusion. The Jammu & Kashmir Students Association (JKSA) has called for an official investigation into attacks against Kashmiri students, highlighting the ongoing struggle for education and the impact it has on Kashmiri youth.

Kashmir's Manufactured Normalcy: A Narrative in Collapse

Intensified cordon-and-search operations have challenged the Indian state's narrative of "normalcy" in Kashmir, alleged target killings of Hindu settlers, and resuming propaganda operations. Such actions undermine prior military claims that infiltration had ended and the militancy count had fallen below 140. The sudden militarization, deployment of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), and drone surveillance reveal a hidden political agenda, contradicting previous military reports.

The Indian government's increasing militarization of Kashmir, despite the Delimitation Commission report's perceived electoral manipulation, is a result of a policy that values control over peace. With nearly a million troops deployed, Kashmir is the most militarized place on earth, ruled by repressive laws that encourage impunity and silence dissent. Human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances, continue unchecked.

The Modi regime's ultimate goal seems to be consolidating a puppet government to legitimize demographic transformation and illegal annexation. However, Kashmiris continue to resist occupation and erasure, demonstrating that resistance based on truth cannot be suppressed by force.

Abdul Mussawer Safi has pursued his bachelor’s in international relations from the National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad. He has explored traditional and non-traditional security dimensions of South Asia and has worked in think tanks such as the Institute of Policy Studies IPS), Islamabad.