There has been an upsurge in attempts at cross-border infiltrations coming from Afghanistan since June 2025, but yet another source of rising security issues for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Islamabad accuses Afghan-based extremists of capitalizing on safe havens within the country, while Kabul accuses Pakistan of exaggerated representation of the threat and playing the scapegoat for domestic turmoil. The result has been escalated violence on both sides of the frontier, and heightened political tensions between the neighboring countries.

Pakistani security forces have seen a surge in attempts at penetration from across the border in Afghanistan, endangering increasingly sophisticated militant attacks along border districts.  During early August, the Pakistan Army announced that it had prevented an attempted large-scale infiltration in Zhob District, Balochistan, where at least 33 militants were killed. According to military officials, militants were associated with "Fitna al Khawarij" (FAK), a group known for launching cross-border attacks from Afghan ground.

Security forces have also intensified action in Balochistan province's Mastung, Khuzdar, and Kachhi districts. In September, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) confirmed that a minimum of four FAH militants — described as India-backed fighters by the Pakistani government — were slain during the Mastung and Khuzdar raids. Two FAH militants were killed by a raid in Kachhi District, state television PTV said.

Authorities say militant organizations continue to operate in many Afghan provinces along the Pakistan border and are looking to utilize those areas as forward bases for cross-border raids. They say the trend has been trending high in recent months, putting pressure on Pakistan's counter-terror and border security initiative.

The Interim Afghan Government (IAG) asserts that isolated attacks, along with Pakistani cross-border bombardment, sometimes inadvertently resulted in civilian casualties. Afghan officials and Afghan-friendly media outlets released photos purported to be of families and children murdered in Pakistan operations, portraying Islamabad as wasteful and irresponsible about collateral damage. They point out that militancy emanating from Pakistan doesn't solely stem from Afghan geography but also from Pakistan's governance issues, socio-economic issues, and pipeline of previous security policies.

Experts maintain there is some truth to both accounts. Independent experts recognize that groups such as the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Al-Qaeda-linked and ISKP-aligned groups, have networks along Afghanistan's border regions. Different United Nations reports have established the fact that Afghanistan was a center of transnational militancy, and threats to regional stability have emerged as a result of not pre-empting such sanctuaries. At the same time, sanctuaries of militants among indigenous Afghan communities are going to affect indigenous groups the most when militants become part of populations living in cities and use mosques, madrassas, and compounds of the family residence as cover. The strategy, from the Pakistani point of view, justifies both the challenge of exact targeting and excessive civilian casualties anarchically reported.

Political gestures only make things more complicated. It is the responsibility of the government of Pakistan to hold the IAG accountable for de facto approving or active promotion of the commanders through facilitating them to hold meetings, raise funds, and coordinate logistics from Afghan soil. They argue that Afghan authorities detain some of the commanders only during official high-level bi-lateral meetings or overseas visits and then secretly release them to pick up from where they had left off. Kabul has responded that it has done everything in its power to discourage infiltration in diverse manners and denounced the attack inside Pakistan, and of trying to blackmail the Afghan government internationally under the guise of the security incidents.

The propaganda campaign has been increasingly sharper over the past few months. With every militant strike in Afghanistan, Kabul's official reaction has a tendency to finger Pakistan for cross-border raids or interference in the domain of intelligence. Islamabad reads it as an attempt to deflect attention from Afghan terrorist sanctuaries. Both governments are in effect finger-pointing at each other for providing support to militants while in denial of their own involvement.

For Pakistan, the stakes are especially high. The country has lost thousands of civilians and security personnel to terrorism over the past two decades, and authorities insist they cannot tolerate another wave of instability. Officials warn that patience is running thin, and that if Afghanistan continues to serve as a sanctuary for groups like the TTP, Islamabad may be forced to escalate countermeasures. To an extent, Pakistan has been holding back, choosing to use diplomacy and cooperation instead of unilateral military action that would increase the destabilization of the region.

Human rights organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have urged both sides to stop targeting civilians and moderate hostilities. While there is risk of militancy in Afghanistan, its unstable security provides fertile ground for native and even global powers to operate.

There is only a cycle of violence and suspicion left. Terrorists have openings in porous borders and factionalism within the political elite to establish themselves. Pakistan retaliates with shootouts and demands world responsibility while Afghanistan fires back with accusations of civilian deaths and meddling. Each event erodes confidence and shatters hopes of meaningful cooperation.

It will require more than name-calling to shatter this self-perpetuating vicious cycle. Experts believe that in the absence of actual joint mechanisms, open intelligence sharing, and Kabul's determination to fight militants within its borders, Pakistan's frontier regions will be vulnerabilities. Likewise, Islamabad should not allow its own anti-terror campaign to kill innocent civilians, repeatedly inciting fury and complicating diplomacy.

The proclivity towards intrusion, propaganda, and recrimination is a sign of the frailty of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship. While two nations share a proclivity to fall into the same traps in the execution of regional peace, ground realities have been unfavorable for trust between them. In the short-term, militant factions appear to be the largest gainer from this divide, able to make incursions across borders while the two neighbors deflect responsibility. Other than stopgap measures to build a platform of cooperation and responsibility, KP and Balochistan's border regions are most likely to be trapped in the cauldron of violence that neither nation can afford.

Umair Khan is an Islamabad based commentator. He can be reached at @ umairkhanmail50@gmail.com