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The Bahrain Arab Summit and Public Expectations of Outcome: A Brief
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The Arab leaders are gathering on May 16, 2024, in Bahrain for a summit dominated by the Israel-Hamas war which has been raging in the Gaza Strip without a ceasefire in sight.

It is the first time the bloc has come together since an extraordinary summit in Riyadh, the capital of neighboring Saudi Arabia, in November that also involved leaders from the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation, based in the Saudi city of Jeddah.

At that meeting, leaders condemned Israeli forces' "barbaric" actions in Gaza but declined to approve punitive economic and political steps against the country, despite growing anger in the region and widespread support for the Palestinian cause.[1]

That could change this time around as backing builds globally for a two-state solution long advocated by Arab countries. Meanwhile, Israel was adamant about achieving a victory, as only he saw it, in Gaza.

On May 15, 2024, Netanyahu rejected the U.S. demands, arguing that it would be “just chatter” while Hamas remains intact. “There is no alternative to military victory,” Netanyahu said “The attempt to bypass it with this or that claim is simply detached from reality.”[2] Even as it began attacks this weekend on what it calls Hamas’s last organized battalions in and around Rafah, Israel sent troops and tanks back into Jabalia in northern Gaza, an area that saw heavy fighting early in the war and was described as cleared of Hamas in December. “Israel’s on the trajectory potentially to inherit an insurgency with many armed Hamas left or, if it leaves, a vacuum filled by chaos, filled by anarchy, and probably refilled by Hamas,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said May 12, 2024.”[3]

On May 13, 2024, Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, said Israel’s military pressure on Hamas needed to be paired with a political plan to replace the group.

“How do we get to the common goal, the enduring defeat of Hamas? And that is going to require military pressure, yes. But more than just military pressure—a political plan to get there,” Sullivan said to reporters at the White House.

Netanyahu opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state as well as Palestinian Authority control of Gaza, arguing it is “too weak to survive and too antagonistic toward Israel.” Most Israelis support his positions.[4]

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, a member of the three-person war cabinet, criticized Netanyahu for failing to plan for the postwar status of Gaza, which he said had left Israel with a choice between an unwanted military occupation or a return to rule by Hamas.

Netanyahu should “make a decision and declare that Israel will not establish civilian control over the Gaza Strip, that Israel will not establish military governance in the Gaza Strip, and that a governing alternative to Hamas in the Gaza Strip will be raised immediately,” Gallant said on May 15, 2024.[5]

His comments were one of the harshest public displays of internal criticism directed at Netanyahu since the start of the war. It was echoed Wednesday by Benny Gantz, also a member of the war cabinet, who said Gallant was “speaking the truth.”[6]

On May 15, 2024, Netanyahu said: “An attempt a few months ago to set up alternative governance for the distribution of food in Gaza with locals unaffiliated with Hamas failed because the militant group threatened and attacked some of them, deterring others from joining the initiative”.[7]

Dov Lieber, Michael R. Gordon, in his excellent article “Netanyahu Rejects U.S. Calls for Postwar Plan in Gaza,” The Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2024, maintains that: [8]

For days, senior Biden administration officials have pressured Israel to plan for postwar Gaza as the long-anticipated Rafah offensive gets underway. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally delivered his response: Not so fast…. He appeared to be rejecting assertions by top U.S. officials—and by his defense minister—that Israel can’t win with force alone. A plan for postwar Gaza has been one of the sharpest points of friction between the U.S. and Israel as the war grinds on and roils American politics ahead of the U.S. election. In making their case, U.S. officials have pointed to continuing resistance by Hamas in areas of Gaza where Israel said it had all but eliminated the group’s presence.…. With talks on a cease-fire stalled, the Biden administration has stepped up pressure on Israel to accept a political blueprint for ending the over seven-month-old war in Gaza, concerned that Israel’s military-focused approach will fail to deliver a knockout against Hamas. Without moving ahead on a postwar plan, Israel might find itself bogged down in an open-ended insurgency, deepening its international isolation and worsening the already calamitous toll on civilians, U.S. officials warn…The intensified administration pressure came days after the White House withheld a shipment of bombs over its concerns about Israel’s military plans for Rafah and warnings by Biden that he would consider additional steps if the offensive involved a major assault on heavily populated urban areas in the city. Israel’s cabinet and the National Security Council have been discussing postwar governance of Gaza, though no final decision has yet been made. Israeli officials have been privately floating the idea of a multiyear Arab-led civil administration of Gaza, reserving the option to conduct military actions against remaining pockets of Hamas, according to Arab officials briefed on the matter. Arab governments have rejected the ideas, insisting they will never accept what amounts to de facto Israeli occupation. Plus, many believe Hamas should have a continuing role after the war, the officials said…In February, Netanyahu called for local Palestinians unaffiliated with Hamas to assume civilian control of the enclave while Israel retains security control. But he has said little publicly since then about postwar planning—a subject fraught with political complications for him. The Palestinian Authority, which governs most Palestinians in the West Bank, is the preferred replacement to Hamas in Gaza for Israel’s regional allies and the U.S. But Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners say bringing in the Palestinian Authority would topple the Israeli government.

The Israel-Hamas war crosses the seven-month mark, and renewed negotiations are underway to secure the release of hostages taken by the terrorist organization, as Israeli forces continue to prepare for an apparent invasion of the southern Gazan town of Rafah.

 On May 15, the U.S. assessed that Israel has amassed enough troops on the edge of Rafah to move forward with a full-scale incursion into the city, but the U.S. is not sure if Israel has made a final decision to do so. The U.S. does not have a timeline or estimate on when Israel could potentially move forward with operations.[9]

On May 15, 2024, Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant publicly called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make the "tough" decision to declare what a non-Hamas government over the Gaza Strip would look like. He said that:[10]

I must reiterate, that I will not agree to the establishment of Israeli military rule in Gaza. Israel must not establish civilian rule in Gaza. Failure to do that would undermine the IDF's achievements in the war. Since October, I have been raising this issue consistently in the Cabinet and have received no response. The end of the military campaign must come together with political action. The 'day after Hamas,' will only be achieved with Palestinian entities taking control of Gaza, accompanied by international actors, establishing a governing alternative to Hamas’ rule.

Thus, Netanyahu was facing considerable opposition not only from external leaders but from internal ones also.

The U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was asked how long the U.S. would stand by while Israel continues to seal off the Rafah gate, cutting off Gaza from the world. Blinken told reporters it is an "urgent problem" that aid isn't getting into Rafah or Kerem Shalom. He also said the humanitarian situation is at risk of backsliding. However, there’s no plan for the future, Blinken said.

Israel "cannot and says it does not want responsibility for Gaza. We cannot have Hamas controlling Gaza. We cannot have chaos and anarchy in Gaza. So there needs to be a clear, concrete plan. And we look to Israel to come forward with its ideas," Blinken said.[11]

As expected, the Biden administration notified Congress on May 14, 2024, that it is moving forward with more than $1 billion in new weapons deals for Israel. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters Monday that the United States is continuing to send military assistance to Israel. The only shipment paused involves the 2,000-pound bombs, for fear they'd be used in a major invasion in Rafah, according to a U.S. official.[12]

Meanwhile, about 450,000 Palestinians have been displaced from Rafah, fleeing to safety, according to the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. “Inland in Rafah is now a ghost town. It’s hard to believe over one million people were sheltering here just a week ago,” UNRWA spokesperson Louise Wateridge said. "People face constant exhaustion, hunger, and fear. Nowhere is safe. An immediate ceasefire is the only hope.[13]

The International Court of Justice said it will hold hearings over Israel's attacks on Rafah during the war in Gaza after South Africa sought new emergency measures as part of its ongoing case accusing Israel of violating the Genocide Convention in its offensive on Gaza. Hearings will be held on May 16, and May 17, 2024, in the Hague.

Earlier, South Africa first brought the case before the ICJ in December alleging Israel violated its obligations in its offensive on Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.[14]

 Meanwhile, during the past 24 hours, the Israeli army killed 60 Palestinians and wounded 80 others, bringing the total death toll to 35,233 and injuries to 79,141 since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out last October. Some victims remained under the rubble amid heavy bombardment and a lack of civil defense and ambulance crews. Israel launched a large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip to retaliate against a Hamas rampage through the southern Israeli border on Oct. 7, 2023, during which about 1,200 people were killed and around 250 were taken hostage.[15]

A new study from a network of human rights researchers concluded that Israel’s actions in Gaza amount to genocide under international law and called on the international community to take action as the United Nations’ top court digs into the conflict.

The University Network for Human Rights study, published jointly on Wednesday by researchers at Boston University, Cornell Law School, the University of Pretoria, and Yale Law School, reviewed the reports of journalists, independent human rights monitors, and UN agencies as the researchers sought to determine whether Israel was in violation the laws stemming from the Genocide Convention of 1948.[16]

In December, the Consulate General of Israel to New England said in a statement that the accusation of genocide is “not only wholly unfounded as a matter of fact and law, but it is also morally repugnant.” The consulate said Israel has been acting lawfully in its actions against Hamas militants and is trying to minimize civilian casualties.

The study’s authors claim that “Israel has worked to eliminate the Palestinian people through violence directed at Gaza’s population, medical facilities, and aid efforts, and that Israeli officials have demonstrated through their words an intent to do so.”

“From the publicly available evidence, we have concluded that genocide is taking place,” said Boston University International Human Rights Clinic director Susan M. Akram, who contributed to the report.[17]

She said researchers “aimed to draw direct connections between what they characterized as dehumanizing rhetoric used by Israeli officials and the actions of Israel’s military in Gaza.” She noted that classifying a genocide, which is among the greatest of international crimes,” often “hinges on being able to prove intent.”

The report quotes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the country’s Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant, the latter of whom said Israeli forces “are fighting human animals and we are acting accordingly,” the Times of Israel reported.

Days later, Israeli President Isaac Herzog stated there was “an entire nation out there that is responsible” for the attack, and he “dismissed arguments that Gazan civilians were unaware of the plan.” However, the report details so many statements by Israeli leaders that “show the plan to decimate the Palestinian population.”[18]

International law defines genocide as committing specific acts of violence with the intent “to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such.”

“Specifically, Israel has committed genocidal acts of killing, causing serious harm to, and inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about the physical destruction of Palestinians in Gaza, a protected group that forms a substantial part of the Palestinian people,” the authors wrote in the study’s executive summary. The current conflict in Gaza is the latest chapter in hostilities dating back decades.[19]

Prosecutors from the UN’s International Criminal Court at The Hague are facing increasing pressure to act. In March, a UN-appointed special researcher found there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that Israel was committing genocide against Palestinians.

Earlier this month, the Biden administration said that “Israel likely had violated international humanitarian law while using US-provided weapons, but wartime conditions prevented US officials from determining that for certain in specific airstrikes”.[20]

This latest report highlighted that Israeli bombing has destroyed up to 70 percent of homes in Gaza, as well as the majority of its civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and schools. Israel’s actions, according to the report, have also led to famine in northern Gaza and a lack of access to water and medical services throughout much of the area.[21]

The researchers “condemn all violations of international law committed by all parties, including violations committed by Hamas against Israeli civilians on or since October 7, 2023.” However, researchers wrote, “violations of international law by any party do not justify the commission of other violations of international law, including and especially the paramount crime of genocide.”[22]

Elyse Semerdjian, a professor at Clark University’s Strassler Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies who was not involved with the report, said the study “helps push back against the narrative that “everything starts on Oct. 7, and instead highlights historical patterns of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians”.[23]

She said that “the study’s findings are likely to make it into the International Court of Justice’s case against Israel, but she added that arguments over whether Israel’s campaign in Gaza constitutes genocide are not likely to come to any conclusion soon.”[24]

The report concluded with a statement that “these violations give rise to obligations by all other States: to refrain from recognizing Israel’s breaches as legal or taking any actions that may amount to complicity in these breaches; and to take positive steps to suppress, prevent, and punish the commission by Israel of further genocidal acts against the Palestinian people in Gaza.”[25]

Akram said proof of genocide obligates other countries, including the US, “to stop providing Israel with weapons and technology and to not defend the nation’s actions as lawful self-defense.” [26]

Meanwhile, public opinion has shifted across the world. Today, Western public opinion has become "more inclined to support the Palestinians and lift the injustice inflicted on them".[27]

Meanwhile, Israel has failed to achieve its war objectives including destroying Hamas, and is now mired in fighting that has dragged on for more than seven months, he said.

Mohammad Alrumaihi in his excellent article “Historic Arab Summit in Bahrain tackles old and new challenges” published in Gulf News, on May 16, 2024, argues that:[28]

The primary focus of the Manama summit is the enduring Palestinian cause, a perennial concern topping the agendas of all Arab summits. Additionally, the summit will address numerous issues stemming from the failures of Arab states, exacerbated by civil wars and unrest in Sudan and Yemen, with Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Libya facing similar challenges…. Therefore, the summit scheduled for today in Manama faces significant challenges. The civilian casualties in Gaza have reached a level surpassing even genocide, with Palestinian groups in Gaza fleeing from one unsafe location to another, mercilessly pursued by Israeli bombing….Today, the Arab summit faces a multitude of challenges, among which the reconciliation between the Palestinians themselves stands as one of the most enduring….Against the backdrop of the harrowing suffering and massive death toll endured by the people of Gaza, the persecution of thousands of prisoners, including women and children in Israel’s prisons, and the daily hardships faced by the inhabitants of the West Bank is in sharp focus. Any rational observer of the numerous Arab summits, each grappling with myriad challenges and resolving many, but consistently faltering on one — the Palestinian issue — must inevitably question the effectiveness of the strategies employed. The core of the Palestinian issue is not solely rooted in external factors but is significantly hindered by internal divisions, which serve as the primary obstacle to resolution. It is imperative for the Arab nations to unite and address these challenges in a cohesive and unified manner.

Samar Al-Gamal, in his article “Arab Summit draft statement calls for UN peacekeepers in occupied Palestinian territories pending two-state solution,” published in Ahram Online, on May 16, 2024, states that:

According to the statement, the Manama Summit emphasizes the UN Security Council's (UNSC) responsibility to take clear actions to implement the two-state solution. It also calls to “set a timeline” for the political process and negotiations and to take clear steps to implement this solution. Such a step will be followed by a resolution from the UNSC under Chapter VII, which will then establish a viable and contiguous Palestinian state on the pre-June 4, 1967, borders with its capital in East Jerusalem, and end any occupation of its land. The Arab leaders are also expected to call for “urgent measures to halt the immediate and permanent ceasefire, end aggression in the Gaza Strip, provide protection for civilians, and release captives and detainees. “The text of the final draft statement further calls for the "withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from all areas of the Gaza Strip," the lifting of the blockade imposed on it, and the reopening of all crossings to allow for the entry of humanitarian aid. The Arab leaders also hold Israel responsible for the destruction of cities and civilian infrastructure in the strip, according to the statement. Moreover, they stress in their statement their “categorical rejection of any attempts to forcibly displace Palestinians from their land in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.” In another part of the final statement, the Arab leaders reiterate a “full and strong rejection of any support for armed groups or militias operating outside the sovereignty of states and pursuing or executing external agendas conflicting with the higher interests of Arab states.” In the statement, they also emphasize the solidarity of all Arab states in defending their sovereignty, and territorial integrity and protecting their national institutions against any external attempts of aggression, imposition of influence, undermining sovereignty, or compromising Arab interests. Additionally, they unequivocally reject terrorism "motives and justifications" and emphasize the need to "cut off its sources of funding,” while supporting international endeavors to combat terrorist organizations, halt their funding, and address the detrimental impact of terrorism on the region, highlighting its threat to international peace and security.

Meanwhile, some Arab leaders have vehemently criticized Israel for its disastrous war in Gaza. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia are now in agreement with the condemnation of Israel for its conduct in the Gaza war. Very recently, Israel had ordered 100,000 people to evacuate to supposed “safe areas” of the Palestinian enclave. On Tuesday, Israeli tanks took over the Rafah border crossing, the only one that Israel did not fully control. “An assault on Rafah would be a strategic mistake, a political calamity & a humanitarian nightmare,” said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.[29]

U.S. President Joe Biden reiterated his “clear position” on the offensive in Rafah in a call with Netanyahu. Washington does not oppose the invasion itself, but on the condition that Israel present a “credible” plan to protect civilians. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, urged the EU to act to stop the invasion, which he has called “unacceptable,” while U.N. spokesman Stéphane Dujarric read a statement in which he reiterated what had been previously announced by the United Nations agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA): the organization will not participate in any massive and “involuntary” displacement of the population. Saudi Arabia also condemned the invasion in a harsh statement that called the Israeli offensive “genocide” for the first time since the start of the war. Earlier, Israel had hoped to form diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia before the war.[30]

 Very recently, the UAE strongly condemned the Israeli forces’ storming and control of the Rafah border crossing in the southern Gaza Strip, warning of the consequences of the military escalation that threatens to cause more innocent victims and exacerbate the humanitarian tragedy taking place in Gaza.

The UAE has voiced “strong condemnation of any forced deportation of the brotherly Palestinian people, and any practices that violate the resolutions of international legitimacy and international and humanitarian law.” It also called on the international community to” make all efforts without delay to reach an immediate ceasefire to avoid inflaming the situation in the occupied Palestinian territory and to prevent the region from being dragged into new levels of violence, tension, and instability.”[31]

UAE “ praised the mediation efforts undertaken by the sisterly State of Qatar and the sisterly Arab Republic of Egypt to establish a ceasefire, expressing its hope that it would result in a truce that would lead to an end to the war, sparing the brotherly Palestinian people further suffering, and thus contributing to consolidating the foundations of stability and achieving sustainable security in the region”. The UAE  reiterated its position “calling for a return to negotiations to achieve a two-state solution and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, stressing the urgent importance of pushing towards creating a serious political horizon for re-negotiating to achieve comprehensive peace, ending tension, and violence, protecting the lives of civilians, and making all efforts to facilitate the flow of urgent humanitarian aid to civilians in the Gaza Strip through safe and unhindered corridors”.[32]

Very recently, UAE hit out at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after the Israeli leader said the Gulf state could be involved in aiding a future government in Gaza after the war.

The prominent and influential Gulf state is one of few Arab states with official diplomatic ties to Israel, which it has maintained through Israel’s more than six-month war in Gaza, although relations appear to have become frayed.[33]

Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan rebuked Netanyahu saying Abu Dhabi denounced the Israeli leader’s comments.

“The UAE stresses that the Israeli prime minister does not have any legal capacity to take this step, and the UAE refuses to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip,” he said in an Arabic post.

Sheikh Abdullah said the UAE would be prepared to support a Palestinian government that met the hopes and aspirations of the Palestinian people, which he said included independence. In an interview, Netanyahu said the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and other countries could assist a civilian government with Gazans in the enclave after the war. Abu Dhabi’s relationship with Netanyahu has fractured over the military campaign, with Emirati officials now rarely speaking with him.[34]

The summit faced extraordinary challenges, and the world was watching how the Arab leaders met them, or otherwise.

It was expected to live up to public expectations and produce an action plan to first end the Gaza war, and then establish an interim setup to rule the enclave, as per the aspirations of the Palestinian populace. Nothing else will be sufficient to meet the rising expectations of the world public. It is global public opinion that has galvanized in an unprecedented manner against the atrocities and callousness of Israel in Gaza. For the first time in history, student demonstrations have simultaneously shaken up the ruling elites of so many countries to do something for the Palestinians in their hour of intense suffering and need. It is hoped that the Bahrain summit will be effective this time and will be unlike previous summits that just made pious declarations on the Palestinian issue, which meant nothing in all reality. The time has come for an action plan to establish a two-state solution in Israel. Only an independent and sovereign Palestine can bring the volatile region to peace and security. Nothing else can work. Much depends on the outcome of the Bahrain Summit.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is an Independent Political Analyst based in Chapel Hill NC

 


[1] Arab leaders head to Bahrain for Gaza-focused summit, Gulf Today, May 16, 2024, https://www.gulftoday.ae/news/2024/05/16/arab-leaders-head-to-bahrain-for-gaza-focused-summit

[2] Dov Lieber, Michael R. Gordon, “Netanyahu Rejects U.S. Calls for Postwar Plan in Gaza”, The Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2024, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/netanyahu-rejects-us-calls-for-postwar-plan-in-gaza/ar-BB1mtbfT?ocid=BingNewsSearch

[3] Ibid

[4] Ibid

[5] Ibid

[6] Ibid

[7] Ibid

[8] Dov Lieber, Michael R. Gordon, “Netanyahu Rejects U.S. Calls for Postwar Plan in Gaza”, The Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2024, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/netanyahu-rejects-us-calls-for-postwar-plan-in-gaza/ar-BB1mtbfT?ocid=BingNewsSearch

[9] Luis Martinez and Selina Wang, “Israel has amassed enough troops for the full-scale incursion of Rafah: US officials”, ABC News, May 15, 2024, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-gaza-live-updates-israel-has-amassed-troops-for-rafah-incursion-us-officials/ar-BB1mhrTt?ocid=bingnewssearch&cvid=16b0b35d25e748a998e606a7c9390564&ei=16

[10]  Will Gretsky, ABC News, Israel Gaza Live updates, May 16, 2024, https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-gaza-live-updates-israel-has-amassed-troops-for-rafah-incursion-us-officials/ar-BB1mhrTt?ocid=bingnewssearch&cvid=16b0b35d25e748a998e606a7c9390564&ei=16linken calls continued closure of Rafah gate 'urgent problem.'

[11]  Anne Flaherty, ABC News, May 14, 7:02 PM https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-gaza-live-updates-israel-has-amassed-troops-for-rafah-incursion-us-officials/ar-BB1mhrTt?ocid=bingnewssearch&cvid=16b0b35d25e748a998e606a7c9390564&ei=16

[12] -ABC News' Selina Wang and Allison Pecorin, US moving forward with $1B in new weapons deals for Israel: Sources 

May 14, 12:52 PM https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-gaza-live-updates-israel-has-amassed-troops-for-rafah-incursion-us-officials/ar-BB1mhrTt?ocid=bingnewssearch&cvid=16b0b35d25e748a998e606a7c9390564&ei=16

[13] 450,000 Palestinians have fled Rafah, UN says-ABC News' Will Gretsky

May 14, 12:13 PM https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-gaza-live-updates-israel-has-amassed-troops-for-rafah-incursion-us-officials/ar-BB1mhrTt?ocid=bing

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