Mon. May 30, 2016 Get Published  Get Alerts
HOME  |LOGIN
ABOUT | CONTACT US | SUPPORT US
Frictions in the South China Sea - Chinese strategic mistake

Comments(0)
(Why Indonesia and Japan are pivotal in Asia)


On the eastern, ascendant flank of Eurasian continent, the Chinese vertigo economy is overheated and too-well integrated in the petrodollar system. Beijing, presently, cannot contemplate or afford to allocate any resources in a search for an alternative. (The Sino economy is low-wage- and labor intensive- centered. Chinese revenues are heavily dependent on exports and Chinese reserves are predominantly a mix of the USD and US Treasury bonds.) To sustain itself as a single socio-political and formidably performing economic entity, the People’s Republic requires more energy and less external dependency. Domestically, the demographic-migratory pressures are huge, regional demands are high, and expectations are brewing. Considering its best external energy dependency equalizer (and inner cohesion solidifier), China seems to be turning to its military upgrade rather than towards the resolute alternative energy/Green Tech investments – as it has no time, plan and resources to do both at once. Inattentive of a broader picture, Beijing (probably falsely) believes that lasting containment, especially in the South China Sea, is unbearable, and that – at the same time – fossil-fuels are available (e.g., in Africa and the Gulf), and even cheaper with the help of warships. 1

In effect, the forthcoming Chinese military buildup will only strengthen the existing, and open-up new, bilateral security deals of neighboring countries, primarily with the US – as nowadays in Asia, none wants to be a passive downloader. Ultimately, it may create a politico-military isolation (and financial burden) for China that would just consequently justify and (politically and financially) cheapen the bolder American military presence in Asia-Pacific, especially in the South China Sea. It perfectly adds up to the intensified demonization of China in parts of influential Western media. Hence, the Chinese grab for fossil fuels or its military competition for naval control is not a challenge but rather a boost for the US Asia-Pacific – even an overall – posture. (Managing the contraction of its overseas projection and commitments – some would call it managing the decline of an empire – the US does not fail to note that nowadays half of the world’s merchant tonnage passes though the South China Sea. Therefore, the US will exploit any regional territorial dispute and other frictions to its own security benefit, including the costs sharing of its military presence by the local partners, as to maintain pivotal on the maritime edge of Asia that arches from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, Malacca and South China Sea up to the northwest–central Pacific.) A real challenge is always to optimize the (moral political and financial) costs in meeting the national strategic objectives. In this case, it would be a resolute turn of China towards green technology, coupled with the firm buildup of the Asian multilateralism. Without a grand rapprochement to the champions of multilateralism in Asia, which are Indonesia, India and Japan, there is no environment for China to seriously evolve and emerge as a formidable, lasting, and trusted global leader warships .

Opting for either strategic choice will reverberate in the dynamic Asia–Pacific theatre. However, the messages are diametrical: An assertive military – alienates, new technology – attracts neighbors. Finally, armies conquer (and spend) while technology builds (and accumulates)! At this point, any eventual accelerated armament in the Asia-Pacific theatre would only strengthen the hydrocarbon status quo. With its present configuration, it is hard to imagine that anybody can outplay the US in the petro-security, petro-financial and petro-military global playground in the following few decades. Given the planetary petro-financial-tech-military causal constellations, this type of confrontation is so well mastered by and would further only benefit the US and the closest of its allies.

Within the OECD/IEA grouping, or closely; the G-8 (the states with resources, infrastructure, tradition of and know-how to advance the fundamental technological breakthroughs), it is only Japan that may seriously consider a Green/Renewable-tech U-turn. Tokyo’s external energy dependencies are stark and long-lasting. After the recent nuclear trauma, Japan will need a few years to (psychologically and economically) absorb the shock – but it will learn a lesson. For such a huge formidable economy and considerable demography, situated on a small land-mass which is repeatedly brutalized by devastating natural catastrophes (and dependent on yet another disruptive external influence – Arab oil), it might be that a decisive shift towards green energy is the only way to survive, revive, and eventually to emancipate.

An important part of the US–Japan security treaty is the US energy supply lines security guaranty given to (the post-WWII demilitarized) Tokyo. After the recent earthquake-tsunami-radiation armageddon, as well as witnessing the current Chinese military/naval noise, Japan will inevitably rethink and revisit its energy policy, as well as the composition of its primary energy mix.

Tokyo is well aware that the Asian geostrategic myopias are strong and lasting, as many Asian states are either locked up in their narrow regionalisms or/and entrenched in their economic egoisms. Finally, Japan is the only Asian country that has clearly learned from its own modern history, all about the limits of hard power projection and the strong repulsive forces that come in aftermath from the neighbors. Their own pre-modern and modern history does not offer a similar experience to other two Asian heavyweights, China and India. That indicates the Far East as a probable zone of the Green-tech excellence and a place of attraction for many Asians in the decade to come.


1 More on the pan-Asian architectures in my 2011 work: “Preventive diplomacy: No Asian century…”



Anis H. Bajrektarevic, Geopolitics of Energy Editorial Member

Chairperson for Intl. Law & Global Pol. Studies

Vienna, 20 MAY 2012


contact: anis@bajrektarevic.eu

Comments in Chronological order (0 total comments)

Report Abuse
Quick Links Twitter Face Book Get Alerts Contact Us Enter Ia-Forum Student Award Competition
ANNOUNCEMENTS
THE WORLD'S DISCUSSING...
05/30/2016: Risky routes: Energy transit in the Middle East More
05/29/2016: Reflections on the World Humanitarian Summit with the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator More
05/27/2016: Banter #222: Tamra Ryan on the Women’s Bean Project More
05/27/2016: How to help close the tax gap More
05/27/2016: Child poverty in America is not a global embarrassment More
05/27/2016: Too Bad the Portman-Strickland Senate Race Has Turned into a China-Bashing Free-For-All More
05/27/2016: Africa in the news: Nigeria establishes flexible exchange rate, Kenya reaffirms plan to close Dabaab refugee camp, and AfDB meetings focus on energy needs More
05/27/2016: If US Won't Take More Syrian Refugees, Extend Trade Agreements to Those Who Do More
05/27/2016: Will ISIS and al-Qaida always be rivals? More
05/27/2016: Will ISIS and al-Qaida always be rivals? More
05/27/2016: Trade on Trial, Again More
05/27/2016: Overcoming barriers to a European digital single market More
05/26/2016: The incoherence of sustainability More
05/26/2016: Is there a shortcut to development for the Western Balkans? More
05/26/2016: Walk the line: The United States between Israel and the Palestinians More
05/26/2016: Long-range stand-off does not make sense, nor do its proposed numbers More
05/26/2016: Long-range stand-off does not make sense, nor do its proposed numbers More
05/26/2016: Long-range stand-off does not make sense, nor do its proposed numbers More
05/26/2016: Long-range stand-off does not make sense, nor do its proposed numbers More
05/26/2016: Hutchins Roundup: Labor market mobility, family disadvantage, and more More
05/26/2016: Hutchins Roundup: Labor market mobility, family disadvantage, and more More
05/26/2016: MSNBC's Morning Joe Whitewashes Bob Gates' Legacy More
05/26/2016: Voice, Exit, and Liberty: The Effect of Emigration on Origin Country Institutions More
05/26/2016: America's Doomed China Strategy More
05/26/2016: NATO Assesses Ukraine and Invites Montenegro: Who's Afraid of Vladimir Putin? More
05/26/2016: Blood and faith in Afghanistan: A June 2016 update More
05/26/2016: Blood and faith in Afghanistan: A June 2016 update More
05/26/2016: Blood and faith in Afghanistan: A June 2016 update More
05/25/2016: What might the drone strike against Mullah Mansour mean for the counterinsurgency endgame? More
05/25/2016: What might the drone strike against Mullah Mansour mean for the counterinsurgency endgame? More
05/25/2016: Monetary policy and financial stability More
05/25/2016: Monetary policy and financial stability More
05/25/2016: Behavioral interventions to increase tax-time saving: Evidence from a national randomized trial More
05/25/2016: Testimony before the European Parliament, Committee on International Trade More
05/25/2016: A Portrait in Courage More
05/25/2016: Don't Dilute Libertarianism Just to Beat Donald Trump More
05/25/2016: Is China Really That Dangerous? More
05/25/2016: For Southwest Corridor, Buses Would Be Better, Cheaper Than Light Rail More
05/24/2016: Affordable Care Encourages Healthy Living: Theory and Evidence from China's New Cooperative Medical Scheme More
05/24/2016: Dear Progressives: Using Uber Doesn't Make You a Monster More
05/24/2016: What Republicans for Trump Are Telling Me More
05/24/2016: A preview of the eighth U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue More
05/24/2016: How do we end energy poverty? More
05/24/2016: Show me the money: Fiscal and financial fundamentals of 21st century city governance More
05/24/2016: The U.S.-Saudi Arabia counterterrorism relationship More
05/24/2016: Not-so-great expectations: The G-7’s waning role in global economic governance More
05/24/2016: Implementing the European Union's Digital Single Market Strategy More
05/24/2016: Realism Restrained: the Washington Playbook Strikes Back More
05/24/2016: Hate Speech Laws: Ratifying the Assassin’s Veto More
05/24/2016: The European Union's Digital Single Market Strategy: A conflict between government's desire for certainty and rapid marketplace innovation More
More...
About | Contact Us | Support Us | Terms and Conditions

All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2002 - 2016