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From the MENA, Yet Another Dilemma

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The MENA theatre is situated in one of the most fascinating locations of the world. It actually represents (along with the Balkans-Caucasus) the only existing land corridor that connects 3 continents. It also holds over a half of the world’s proven oil-gas reserves (56% – oil, 48% – gas). Further on, the Gulf OPEC states and Libya have –by far– the lowest costs of oil extraction thanks to the high crude ‘purity’ (measured by overall properties such as a state of aggregation, excavation gravity, viscosity, weight, degree of sulfuric and other contaminants) which is simplifying and cheapening the refinement process. These petrol-exporters also enjoy the close proximity to open warm seas for the low-cost, fast and convenient overseas shipments. (Hence, the costs per barrel of crude for Libya and the Persian Gulf states are under 5USD, for other OPEC members below 10UDS. This is in a sharp contrast to countries such as the US, Russia, Norway, Canada and many others that bear production costs of several tens of USD per barrel – according to the International Energy Agency /IEA/).

Therefore, it is an absolute imperative for the external/peripheral powers to dominate such a pivotal geo-economic and geopolitical theater by simply keeping its center soft (e.g. preventing any emancipation that might come through the indigenous socio-political modernization). This is the very same imperative that was a dominant rational of inner European and Asian machtpolitik for centuries.

No wonder that the competition in the MENA theatre, which has a lasting history of external domination or interference (and largely the Versailles, Anglo-French drawn borders), is severe, multiple, unpredictable. The region is predominantly populated by the Sunni (Arab) Muslims. With its high population density, and demographic growth stronger than economic one, this very young median population (on average 23–27 years old) is dominated by juvenile, mainly unemployed or underemployed, but socially mobilized and often angry males. Political radicalization (besides exploitation of the Shia–Sunni and of Muslim–Jewish antagonism) is surely one of the most convenient instruments of tacit control aimed at to preserve governing authorities weak, if not incapacitated.

It is of no surprise that in each and every of the predominantly Sunni-Muslim Balkans-MENA country of the secular republican type, where the external powers have brokered the political settlement, is enveloped in perpetuated instabilities, and thus paralyzed. So far, no single monarchy has been (significantly) affected. From Bosnia (nearly 20 years ago), then Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya (as well as in the post-‘Spring’ Egypt, Tunis, Yemen, all the way to ‘ungoverned’ Mali, South Sudan and Algeria’s south), there is a purposely dysfunctional and indecisive central government put in place.

Conclusively, the most observers would agree that, while the so-called Arab Spring was of cross-Arab outreach, it was far from being pan-Arabic; more of a spontaneous social revolt (Al-Jazeera-connecting-pots) series of events, than any directional process. To channel something unexpectedly inflammatory and cross-Arab, but avoiding pan-Arabism as well as any sincere structural socio-economic reform and political emancipation can be achieved only by lightening the torch of Islamism. For one thing, as it now seems, the euphorically tam-tamed ‘Facebook revolutions’ across MENA were rather a strategic distraction ‘innocently’ dressed up in diverting banalities of social media networks. The very same role those networks well played elsewhere too.

Currently, the announced reductions of the American physical presence in Afghanistan, its limits in (nearly failed, nuclear, state of) Pakistan, massive overextensions suffered on the southwestern flank of the Euro-Asian continent as well as the recent US Army pullout from Iraq, is felt within the GCC (in France, Israel and Turkey too) as dangerous exposure to neighboring (increasingly anticipated as assertive) Iran, as well as Russia and China behind it. Right now, Syria pays a (proxy war) price for it: This multi-religious country may end up entirely combusted, creating a dangerous security vacuum in the heart of MENA. Or to use the words of frustration of the senior French diplomat who recently told me in Brussels: “we have to quickly delegitimize the legitimate Syrian government and topple al-Assad in order to convince Israel not to bomb Iran…”

As recently, the ‘Group of Friends of Syria’- induced recognition of the so-called Syrian opposition means also that Turkey is now practically at war with Syria. At this point, let me be both instructive and predictive: Fall of al-Assad would most certainly trigger dissolution of Syria. It would also lead to a formalized federalization of Iraq in a desperate move to prevent its total decomposition as well as to a serious crisis of Lebanese and Jordanian statehood, probably beyond reparation. The (short-run) winner should than seem to be Israel along with the GCC monarchies. However, in a long run (even the northern portions of Syria being occupied by the Turkish army for quite some time), it would be Kurds and Shias. Consequently, any proclamation of Kurdish state the Erdogan government (as well as Iraq) would not survive – as it already created enough enemies at home and in its near abroad. Ergo, besides the dispersed, rarified and terrified MENA Christians, the (modernized) Sunnis are definitely the long-term losers.

Anis H. Bajrektarevic, Geopolitics of Energy Editorial Member
Chairperson for Intl. Law & Global Pol. Studies
Vienna, 22 JAN 2013
contact: anis@bajrektarevic.eu



This article is an excerpt from the key-note address: ‘Future of the EURO-MED and OSCE’ to be presented at the Crans Montana Forum, in March 2013 in Paris, France


Comments in Chronological order (2 total comments)

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Thu, December 26, 2013 05:47 AM (about 14691 hours ago)
Les deux sont entièrement consacrés, soutenu et promu par les médias sociaux. Très polarisant, les deux sont fracturation à un consensus. Que Lady Gag
 
Thu, December 26, 2013 05:55 AM (about 14690 hours ago)
Set forth with the military deployments in Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya to the post-conflict ‘resolution’ momentum in these states – it
 
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