Finally, on March 18, 2025, U.S. President Trump called President Putin to endorse a full cease-fire he instead presented his demands to end the fighting. Putin only agreed to pause attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Putin’s reaction indicated that he was the main obstacle to any peace deal to end the Ukraine war and that the way ahead was a difficult one. Trump will now apply real pressure on Putin to make concessions remains to be seen. [1] Meanwhile, Russia will still basically stall on the ceasefire as it wants to achieve more territory in Ukraine. Putin is focused on Russian victory in its “most existential conflict” since the Second World War and not on improved relations with the US.[2] Putin has long claimed that Russia is threatened by NATO’s expansion in the erstwhile Soviet Union’s orbit in eastern Europe. Europe, Putin falsely calls this development “the root cause” of the Ukrainian conflicts.

Meanwhile, Trump is right to believe that Ukraine will be unable to liberate eastern regions captured by Russia and Crimea, annexed by Putin in 2014. Ukraine will have to cede some territory to Russia to end the war. Even European governments that have supported Ukraine agreed.

Given Russia’s national interests, any peace deal to end the war will be a complicated affair. President Trump will certainly have to apply a lot more pressure on Putin to achieve it. Most likely, President Trump will do so only because he wants to shift attention to the looming Chinese threat. Notwithstanding president Putin’s pretensions and ambitions, Russia is no longer a direct threat to the US, since it is a declining power. The real threat to the US is China, not Russia.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a policy analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[1] “European Gas Price Rises After Putin Fails to Endorse Full Cease-fire”, Wall Street Journal, March 19, 2025 , European Gas Price Rises After Putin Fails to Endorse Full Cease-fire - WSJ and Alexander Ward, Alan Cullison and Matthew Luxmore, “Trump’s Call With Putin Signals Long Road Ahead to Russia-Ukraine Deal”, Wall Street Journal , March 18, 2025

[2] Nick Paton Walsh, “Putin just called Trump’s bluff on Ukraine, with the Russian art of the ‘no’ deal, , CNN, March 19, 2025, Putin just called Trump’s bluff on Ukraine, with the Russian art of the ‘no’ deal | CNN