As 2025 has begun, most will likely think longingly about the coming year. While such a sentiment may be widespread with regards to New Year’s Resolutions, it isn’t one widely shared when it comes to geopolitics. Indeed, going into 2025 there is a looming fear that hostilities carried over from 2024 will spark another wider, potentially global, conflict as tensions continue to rise. Visit any social media site and you will find fearmongers, trolls, or bots pushing a narrative akin to this. Believers of this narrative aren’t without reason with the alarmingly high amount of conflicts around the globe. All signs point to the inevitability of a wider conflict; however, this is a dangerous precedent to set. Conflict isn’t inevitable. In fact, history has shown us that it is anything but inevitable. It can be avoided, but it requires genuine work from everyone involved.

A Dangerous Precedent

The year 2024 saw an alarmingly large amount of conflicts around the globe. The expansion of previous conflicts like the War in Ukraine, which saw not only Ukrainian offenses into Russian territory but also the direct involvement of North Korean troops; to the Israel-Palestine Conflict which saw hostilities spread into Lebanon and the escalation of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza; or even to Sudan, a seemingly forgotten conflict, which saw RSF and SAF troops commit human rights abuses around the country much like Darfur in the early 2000’s. The above examples are but a few of the numerous other conflicts around the globe - many of which see minimal attention. Taken in all, looking hesitantly at 2025 isn’t all that unreasonable.

While it is true that 2024 saw the highest amount of global conflict in the 21st century, the assumption that a wider, potentially global, conflict will inevitably spread from these events is short-sighted. Rather than viewing this trend from a pessimistic angle, one must view the high amounts of conflict as an opportunity to effectively use the already established international organizations to create order and maintain peace. Admittedly, this is easier said than done, but it certainly isn’t impossible. There are a plethora of institutions, organizations, and foundations whose primary goal is to avoid global conflict - we are better prepared than any pre-conflict era thus far.

The Glorious Technological Revolution

What makes the conflicts of 2024 more alarming to the average person as compared to conflicts of the past is the emergence of technology as a driving-force in outcome effectiveness. Long are the days of open-field battles; battles of the current era are won by those who have the most advanced tech. This transition from traditional warfare to tech-heavy tactics has left not only soldiers vulnerable, but increasingly civilians too.

Looking back on 2024, there is a very important, yet often overlooked factor resulting from this new reality. With an increase in technology, not only are battle-field tactics changing, but traditional protections of civilians have been eroded. One example (of many) of this is the use of cyber attacks to take down critical infrastructure. Targeting things like a power grid, for example, is by no means a new tactic - it is a logical strategy to take. In this new age of cyber warfare, militaries have been able to strike deep into enemy territory, in areas that might have been unaffected otherwise. This means that the security that regions away from the front-line might have provided refugees have become increasingly vulnerable.

While these new realities may affect people in conflict-areas, the use of technology has another unforeseen consequence. The increased feeling of connectivity created by the internet means that no longer are conflicts in far away places simply a matter of geographical proximity. With the internet, people directly affected by these conflicts can share their experiences with the rest of the globe. The ability to provide first-hand accounts of events in real-time with the use of the internet is an essential tool in raising awareness about a given conflict. The problem lies in a decreased sense of locality. To internet users, pictures and videos from areas in conflict have made war not just something that is affecting them but something that is affecting us. It makes war seem commonplace, when the reality is far different.

Pointing to the Parallels

Another factor contributing to the notion of the inevitability of a wider war is the media. One of the driving factors to these pessimistic narratives is how “experts” cite similarities between 2024 and the early 1900’s/1930’s (periods before the two world wars), as proof that we are living in a pre-conflict era. While these comparisons make for entertaining reads, they are the least bit helpful in making rational predictions for the future.

Making comparisons to past events can be valuable, it helps us progress from past mistakes. While  there were large amounts of conflicts in 2024, much like these pre-war eras, the fact of the matter is that present-day realities are far different than those of the past. What these so-called analyses often forget to mention is that we are far more cooperative, connected, and better prepared than ever before. The pre global-war eras of the past didn’t have the global institutions that are in place today (pre-WWII had the League of Nations but it was hamstrung from the outset). Even if some states are becoming more inclined towards conflict, it doesn’t mean that the future will repeat the past.

Moving in to 2025

War isn’t inevitable. Regardless of what some “analysts” may say or what history might point to, the truth of the matter is that war is only as likely as we make it. Mark Twain once said that, “history doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme,” and this is an indispensable view to have moving into 2025.

Agreement among scholars and military strategists that war isn't an inevitability isn’t enough. Real change needs to be made. A great place to start would be with reforms of the leading security/global agencies. While this is easier said than done, it is becoming increasingly a necessity. Security Council reformation in the UN has been a hot-topic discussion point, and while it may currently exist only as an interesting academic exercise, change may become a necessity for the organization to fulfil its intended purpose. On the flip side of this scenario, isolationism and pacifism must be avoided if real efficiency in this pursuit is reached. We must pick and choose our battles, not avoid them outright.

Even if the reformation of these global organizations take place, it isn’t certain whether real peace can be had, or even if long-term stability could be reached. The bottom line is that cooperation must continue. Isolating allies and transactional diplomacy weakens global stability. Peace is reliant on unity, not division. Looking into 2025, we must remember that we are better prepared than ever before and that war is only as inevitable as we make it.

Zac Knapp is a student at the University of Idaho majoring in International Relations and Political Science. His is also a Division 1 cross country and track athlete.