"In the cool mist of Kashmir's hills, an act of gun violence has ignited a diplomatic crisis, threatening not just peace—but water, the lifeblood of South Asia."

What should have been a peaceful getaway in the valleys of Pahalgam became a horror story for 26 tourists. The ripple effects of this tragedy are now threatening to unravel a 64-year-old water-sharing pact, one that endured the turbulence of war but now teeters on the edge of collapse.

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960. The pact was signed between India and Pakistan, with the World Bank brokering the agreement. That treaty withstood three wars between India and Pakistan – in 1965, 1971, and 1999 – but is now suspended indefinitely. It aimed to resolve water-sharing disputes between India and Pakistan. It allocated the six rivers of the Indus system: India got unrestricted use of the eastern rivers (Sutlej, Beas, Ravi), while Pakistan largely got the water from the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).

The treaty set the stage for cooperation and infrastructure development for a good long time, but the recent suspension now casts doubt on the agreement that has been in existence for so long.

After the attack on Pahalgam, India suspended the treaty and cited Pakistan's support for terrorism, while Pakistan maintained it did not support terrorism and branded India's decision "water warfare", reminding India that any such treaty under the umbrella of the World Bank is multilateral in nature, making India wake up to why there is and has been a Harry crisis.

 The treaty suspension also resulted in a downgrade of diplomatic relations with Pakistan as well as travel bans. Statements from both parties during this event indicate increasing rhetoric between the two others, so the 'use and abuse' nature of relationships led to the use of metaphors, swapping back and forth. With India headed to general elections this year and Pakistan reeling from elections that resulted in economic impact and negotiations with the I.M.F., the different ways in which parties handle the fallout from this particular Kashmir attack are largely driven by internal political and economic pressures rather than inter-state confrontations.

Consider the economic implications of the treaty suspension. Pakistan is heavily dependent on the western rivers for agriculture as well as electrical generation; as water availability decreases, this may severely impact water shortages in Pakistan

Regional stability is at risk due to rising tensions. While the World Bank expects to initiate consultations, the future of the treaty is uncertain. Pressure is increasing internationally for dialogue, but the way ahead necessitates working through the underlying issues and rebuilding trust, which is no easy task in the current and continuing volatile environment.

Water shortage exacerbated by the escalating climate crisis has become a major global challenge. More than 2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water across the planet.

A rapidly accelerating the water crisis grips all major parts of the world, including South Asia, where glacier mass is shrinking, causing the declining flow of rivers.

Both India and Pakistan are facing a huge challenge of water shortages to drink as well as food production, which is at risk of failure within the next few decades. The water system in these countries is already under unprecedented stress due to climate change.

Thus, the conservation of water resources through efficient irrigation and water governance and saving the ecosystem as a part of the hydrological cycle is key to managing the after-crisis. A peaceful solution to water disputes between the two countries is vital for sustainable water management.

As glaciers melt and rivers dwindle, the cost of discord grows heavier. The Indus doesn’t recognise borders—perhaps it’s time both nations remembered that.

Khizra Mushtaq is a student of Government and Public Policy at National Defense University Islamabad, Pakistan. She has a keen interest in government and public policies, instance regulations, policy formulation and implementation with special context to Pakistan.