In the wake of the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, tensions between rival India and Pakistan have risen to their highest point since 2019, when they came close to war after a suicide car bombing in Kashmir. [1] The attack was claimed by a previously unknown militant group calling itself the Kashmir Resistance. Kashmir is claimed in full by both India and Pakistan, with each controlling only part of its India blames Pakistan for the attack which claimed the lives of 26 people. The responsibility for the attack was claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), alleged by India that it is a proxy group of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), an UN-designated terrorist group based in Pakistan. However, Pakistan denies responsibility and is calling for a neutral probe.

India-Pakistan tensions have escalated since the incident. Very recently both countries announced tit-for-tat diplomatic measures against each other.

Most importantly, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan the Simla Agreement. Both Pakistan and India have also closed their airspace to one another. The Indian government has also blocked access to some Pakistani YouTube channels and Instagram accounts of several Pakistani celebrities.

Among the worsening tensions, continue to violate the ceasefire across the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto frontier that separates Kashmiri territory between the two rivals. [2] As expected India accuses Pakistan of the worsening situation.. [3] The current situation is alarming only because the Kashmir dispute has a long tragic history and Pakistan and India have fought wars over Kashmir. The two countries have unleashed an intense propaganda war against each other. There is an incessant and shrill drumbeat of war in the national media of both countries.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to punish those responsible. Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said in a statement following a conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on April 30 that the “perpetrators, backers and planners must be brought to justice. [4] Meanwhile, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh spoke to his US counterpart, Pete Hegseth, on May 1, 2025. [5]

The Indian reaction was extremely stringent and also expected. The drums of war have been sounded in India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has “given complete operational freedom to the armed forces to decide on the mode, targets and timing of India’s response to the Pahalgam massacre.”.[6]

India very conveniently describes all militancy in Indian-controlled Kashmir as Pakistan-backed terrorism. However, Pakistan denies this, and many Muslim Kashmiris consider the militants to be part of a homegrown freedom struggle. [7]

Given the nature of the historic Kashmir dispute, Pakistan’s response was rather expected. Very much like enemy India, the country’s national media went on a nationalistic saber-rattling spree. On April 30 a federal mister claimed that Pakistan had “credible intelligence” that India was planning to attack it within days, “on the pretext of baseless and concocted allegations of involvement.” [8]

Earlier, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told reporters “I have made it very clear, on behalf of the government and the nation, that Pakistan will not be the first one to resort to any escalatory move. However, in case of any escalatory move by the Indian side, we will respond very strongly.”

The army spokesman, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Sharif, added, “If they think that aggression is the path forward, our message is only this: We are ready, don’t test it.” Pakistan didn’t elaborate on the “credible intelligence” it cited. [9]

Meanwhile, the Pakistani military is continuing its build-up on the borders with India which has deployed troops. [10]  

On May 1, Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir gave an unequivocal warning to warmongers across the border: any aggression from India will receive a "swift, resolute, and notch-up response" from Pakistan's military.

The army chief's stern warning came days after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly told his country's armed forces that they had the "complete operational freedom to decide on the mode, targets and timing of our response" to the Pahalgam incident.

Gen Munir, however, reaffirmed the unyielding resolve of Pakistan's armed forces to defend the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity at all costs.

"Let there be no ambiguity: any military misadventure by India will be met with a swift, resolute, and notch-up response," he said. "While Pakistan remains committed to regional peace, our preparedness and resolve to safeguard national interests is absolute," the army chief said. [11]

Meanwhile, the military has consolidated its control of the Sharif Government and appointed Lt Gen Muhammad Asim Malik, the incumbent dire­ctor general of the powerful Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the country’s premier intelligence agency, as the new National Security Adviser (NSA).  His appointment marks the first time a serving ISI chief will concurrently serve as the NSA. The NSA position had remained vacant since April 2022, when the PTI government was ousted after former Prime Minister Imran Khan lost a vote of confidence. At the time, Moeed Yusuf was serving as the NSA. The NSA holds the status of a federal minister and serves as the principal adviser to the Prime Minister on matters of national security, foreign policy, and strategic affairs. The adviser also heads the National Security Division, based at the Prime Minister’s Secretariat in Islamabad. [12]

At the United Nations, Pakistan’s Ambassador Asim Iftikhar Ahmad met Secretary-General António Guterres on Thursday to discuss “the evolving security situation in South Asia.”

A press release from Pakistan’s mission to the UN said the ambassador reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to peace and regional stability.

UN spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric confirmed that Guterres had spoken with both Indian and Pakistani leaders following the attack and had offered his “good offices” to mediate, but travel to the region was unlikely unless both sides agreed to his involvement. [13]

In a surprise development, former Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari acknowledged Pakistan's past involvement in funding extremist groups, aligning with recent admissions from the defense minister. He highlighted the country's role in supporting the Mujahideen during the Afghan war, in collaboration with Western powers. Bhutto asserted that Pakistan has since reformed its policies and taken action against extremism, particularly after experiencing significant terrorist attacks. Pakistan’s former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari accepted the country’s troubled past in funding extremist groups, echoing recent admissions made by Defense Minister Khawaja Asif. In an interview with Sky News, Bhutto said, “I don’t think that it’s a secret that Pakistan has a past as far as extremist groups are concerned.”[14]

Bilawal also pointed to Pakistan’s active role in funding and supporting the Mujahideen during the first Afghan war. “We did that in coordination and collaboration with Western powers,” he said. “Pakistan went through wave after wave of extremism… we suffered.” However, Bhutto insisted that the situation has changed in recent years. “It is not something that we partake in today. It is indeed an unfortunate part of our history… but we also learned our lessons,” he said. [15]

He credited internal reforms and military operations, especially after the assassination of his mother Benazir Bhutto, with reversing the state’s policy on extremist elements. “We saw terrorist attacks every other day… Pakistan has taken serious action, successful action against these groups.”

Bilawal’s comments follow those of Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, who admitted during a televised interview that “we have been doing this dirty work for the United States for about 3 decades… and the West, including Britain.” Asif had called it “a mistake”, saying Pakistan paid a heavy price for aligning with the US during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the post-9/11 war on terror.

During his interview, Khwaja Asif acknowledged, "We have been doing this dirty work for the United States for about 3 decades... and the West, including Britain...That was a mistake, and we suffered for that, and that is why you are saying this to me. If we had not joined the war against the Soviet Union and later on the war after 9/11, Pakistan's track record was unimpeachable."[16]

Both political leaders have spoken the truth to calm down Indian nerves and the concerned global public opinion. Given the military control of Pakistan, citizens are afraid to admit the past of Pakistan’s tragic foreign policies. Admitting past mistakes is a clever move by them to help defuse simmering tensions with India. Only they could have done it. The military leadership cannot be expected to act as mature.

Given the seething tensions, the Sharif Government is reaching out to allies to help defuse the tense situation with India. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on May 2, urged Saudi Arabia and other friendly nations to encourage India to de-escalate tensions in South Asia following the recent Pahalgam attack. During a meeting in Islamabad with Saudi Ambassador Nawaf bin Saeed Al-Maliky, Sharif reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to peace and stability in the region and condemned terrorism in all its forms.

 He stated that Pakistan’s focus remains on sustaining the economic progress achieved over the past 15 months with the help of international partners, including Riyadh. “It is inconceivable for Pakistan to act irresponsibly or jeopardize the economic achievements made with great effort,” he said. [17]

Suffice it to state here that India also has a history of intervention in Pakistan’s internal affairs, deserving a separate treatment. But the Modi government plays innocent which is rather absurd, to say the least. Hence, the perpetual denial and blame games continue between both enemy countries. But that is politics as usual. Nothing new here. It has happened before as well.

Given the politics of the two rivals, the primary credit for calling the tense situation between India and Pakistan goes to the US. The US response was appropriate and as expected.

US Vice President JD Vance has urged both countries to exercise restraint. He said, “Our hope here is that India responds to this terrorist attack in a way that doesn’t lead to a broader regional conflict.”

Vance urged Pakistan to cooperate in locating the perpetrators: “To the extent that they’re responsible, [Pakistan] cooperates with India to make sure that the terrorists… are hunted down and dealt with.” He also said, “I’m worried about any time you see a hot spot breaking out, especially between two nuclear powers.”[18]

Vance’s comment comes a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke to India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh. Hegseth informed Singh that the US supports India’s right to defend itself. [19]

Vance's comments are the closest the U.S. government has come since the April 22 attack to potentially linking Pakistan to extremism in India.

Earlier, US State Secretary Marco Rubio spoke with India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, urging both countries to work towards a way that ensures peace and security is maintained in the region. He also called for de-escalation in the area. Jaishankar, however, informed Rubio that the attack's perpetrators must be brought to justice.

Rubico, in his conversation with Shehbaz Sharif, also urged the latter to cooperate with India in its investigation of the terrorist attack. [20]

Top U.S. leaders, including President Donald Trump, have condemned the attack, calling it "terror" and "unconscionable," while expressing support for India without directly blaming Pakistan. [21]

In recent days, the Trump administration  urged India and Pakistan to work with each other to de-escalate tensions and arrive at a "responsible solution." The U.S. State Department has said it was in touch with the nuclear-armed Asian neighbors at multiple levels and Secretary of State Marco Rubio held calls on Wednesday with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. [22]

 With the timely US intervention, a war has been avoided.

The US intervention was expected as it didn’t want to see the tensions escalate into an all-out war between the two enemy nuclear powers. Only the US, as the world’s preeminent superpower, has the clout to calm down the tensions in the wake of the recent terror attack. Therefore, the tension will deescalate very soon.

Notwithstanding Indian rhetoric, the chances of an all-out war are zero. However, further strained relations between India and Pakistan can be expected. The blame game shall continue unabatedly. Both leaderships of India and Pakistan play politics and their rhetoric is primarily aimed at swaying domestic public opinion in their favor. The Pakistan military has very conveniently gained further control over the civilian government which was also expected.

The most important question is how to bring permanent peace to South Asia. It bears repetition for the umpteenth time that peace in the region is only possible with the resolution of the historic Kashmir dispute. Given the nature of the dispute, no government in either India or Pakistan can give concessions that can end the dispute. Therefore, a foreign facilitator is needed without which the county’s incumbent leadership simply cannot resolve the dispute in question. Only the US can do it. No one else can. Whether the Trump administration has the vision to undertake this difficult task remains to be seen. It is hoped that the Trump administration will pressure both India and Pakistan to strike a deal among themselves to resolve the Kashmir dispute. Only then can there be peace in the region. Otherwise, not. Meanwhile, as a first step, the Track II diplomatic talks should be initiated again with the facilitation of the Trump administration. Other friendly countries of both India and Pakistan like the UAE, UK, Iran, and Saudi Arabia can also join the parleys and contribute. A peace mechanism should exist in the first place. Again, Pakistan and India cannot be expected to set up this mechanism on their own. Hence, foreign intervention is crucial.

Given Pakistan’s request to Saudi Arabia, the kingdom will play the role of facilitator of sorts now.  Hopefully, enough sense will prevail among the stakeholders to make it happen. It remains to be seen whether it actually happens or not. Meanwhile, the hapless people of both India and Pakistan can only yearn for peace.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a policy analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[1] Prabhjot Gill, Sheikh Saaliq and Munir Ahmed, “Pakistan says it has “credible intelligence” India will attack within days”, AP, April 30, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-kashmir-pahalgam-attari-wagah-a16c6fc5cf190f0ce0759ad4370a29cc

[2] Ibid

[3] https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/india-pakistan-ties-pahalgam-terror-attack-jd-vance-loc-ceasefire-violation-125050200491_1.html

[4] Asim Yasin & Muhammad Anis, “Army chief pledges swift response to Indian misadventure”,  The News, May 02, 2025, Army chief pledges swift response to Indian misadventure

[5] Ibid

[6] Prabhjot Gill, Sheikh Saaliq and Munir Ahmed, “Pakistan says it has “credible intelligence” India will attack within days”, AP, April 30, 2025, https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-kashmir-pahalgam-attari-wagah-a16c6fc5cf190f0ce0759ad4370a29cc

[7] Ibid

[8] Ibid

[9] Ibid

[10] Pakistan continues military buildup along the Indian border, Chinese howitzers being inducted in artillery regiments, ANI, May 2, 2025, https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/pakistan-continues-military-buildup-along-indian-border-chinese-howitzers-being-inducted-in-artillery-regiments/ar-AA1DZk1k?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=de361b299f4b4820a1cf1d452026154a&ei=23

[11] Asim Yasin and  Muhammad Anis, “COAS vows 'notch-up response' to any Indian aggression”, Express Tribune, May 2, 2025, COAS vows 'notch-up response' to any Indian aggression, Army chief pledges swift response to Indian misadventure, The News, May 02, 2025, Army chief pledges swift response to Indian misadventure

[12] In a first, ISI chief made national security adviser, Dawn, May 1, 2025, https://www.dawn.com/news/1907660/in-a-first-isi-chief-made-national-security-adviser

[13] US cautions India against escalation following Pahalgam attack, Express Tribune, May 2, 2025, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2543527/us-cautions-india-against-escalation-following-pahalgam-attack

[14] 'No secret that Pakistan has a past': Pakistan's Bilawal Bhutto admits to country’s role in backing terror, Times of India, May 2, 2025, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/pakistan/no-secret-that-pakistan-has-a-past-pakistans-bilawal-bhutto-admits-to-countrys-role-in-terror-backing/articleshow/120814196.cms

[15] Ibid

[16] Ibid

[17]PM urges Saudi Arabia to play role in defusing tensions with India, Express Tribune, May 2, 2025, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2543577/pm-urges-saudi-arabia-to-play-role-in-defusing-tensions-with-india

[18] Ibid

[19] India should avoid regional war in its response to Pahalgam attack: Vance, Swati Gandhi,  May 02, 2025, https://www.business-standard.com/external-affairs-defence-security/news/india-pakistan-ties-pahalgam-terror-attack-jd-vance-loc-ceasefire-violation-125050200491_1.html

[20] Ibid

[21] Kanishka Singh, “Vance says the US hopes Pakistan cooperates with India against Pakistan-based militants”, Reuters,  

May 2, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/us-vp-vance-says-indian-response-kashmir-attack-should-avoid-regional-war-2025-05-01/

[22] Ibid