Two weeks after the Pulwama militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir (IAK), India and Pakistan are on the brink of wider conflict. In a surprise development, India attacked six Pakistani locations on May 7, killing twenty-six civilians. The strikes included targets in Punjab, its first attacks on the province since the last full-scale war between the old enemies more than half a century ago. Another three locations were in Pakistan-administered Kashmir (PAK). India said its strikes were "focused, measured and non-escalatory." Indian said the strikes were part of a "commitment" to hold those responsible for the Pulwama attack. "No Pakistani military facilities have been targeted. India has demonstrated considerable restraint in selection of targets and method of execution". New Delhi said its missiles precisely targeted "terrorist infrastructure" across the border while showing "considerable restraint". India also pointed out that Pakistani military facilities were deliberately not targeted. Meanwhile, Islamabad claimed that the country's air force had shot down five Indian military jets.[i]

The two neighbors also exchanged intense shelling and heavy gunfire across much of the Line of Control (LOC), the de facto border in Kashmir, which killed ten civilians in the Indian-administered Kashmir. At least six people were killed in the PAK. The Indian strike goes far beyond New Delhi's response to earlier attacks in Kashmir, blamed on Pakistan. A stronger Pakistani response is expected. [ii]

The Indian strikes have triggered fears of further hostilities in one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints. They put the region on alert, with commercial airlines keeping entirely clear of Pakistani airspace, flight-tracking website Flightradar24 showed. The airport in Srinagar, IAK's biggest city, has been closed to civilian traffic, and several airlines have suspended or diverted flights to Pakistan and northwest India. Earlier, India's leader Modi touted all was well in Kashmir. The Pulwama massacre shattered that claim, and Major airlines are avoiding Pakistan's airspace as tensions with India simmer following the Pahalgam massacre. [iii]

As expected, Pakistan's response was strong. Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif said on May 7, said India "had ignited an inferno in the region" and that it would respond "at a time, place and manner of its choosing to avenge the loss of innocent Pakistani lives and blatant violation of its sovereignty".[iv]

He said that the Indian strikes were "unprovoked" and that the "heinous act of aggression will not go unpunished". Pakistan "has every right" to respond, calling India's actions an "act of war." He called on the military to "avenge the loss of innocent Pakistani lives."[v]

Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said on May 7 that the strikes hit civilian areas, adding that India's claim of "targeting terrorist camps" is false.[vi]

The Director General of Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations (DG ISPR), Lieutenant General Chaudhry, said that the Indian aggression targeted the territorial integrity of Pakistan and endangered civilian lives…while Pakistani forces could strike more than ten planes, they chose to exercise restraint…. armed forces responded to Indian airstrikes in a "measured and defensive" manner, asserting that the response was conducted in self-defense and without violating Indian airspace. India also targeted the Naseri Dam, part of the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project. The military termed the move a "dangerous escalation" and warned him of its implications.[vii]  "This is an unacceptable act," he said. "Targeting water infrastructure raises serious questions about compliance with international humanitarian law and war conventions." He also said, "Pakistan has the right to respond to any act of aggression in a manner and time of its choosing. [viii]

He continued to say that India launched an unprovoked attack on the Naseri Dam near the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project, which caused severe damage to vital infrastructure and endangered thousands of civilians living nearby. He strongly condemned the strike, calling it a violation of international laws.[ix]

As expected, world leaders, including those from the European Union, the United Kingdom, the U.S., China, Japan, France, and Russia, have called for restraint, expressed deep concern, called for "maximum restraint," and urged "dialogue" and "de-escalation." [x]

The United Nations has also expressed concern over the strikes and has urged restraints from both countries.

US President Donald Trump said he hoped clashes between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan end "very quickly," and termed rising tension between India and Pakistan a "shame". [xi]

The US Department of State said it was "closely monitoring" the flare-up. The spokesperson said that: "We continue to urge Pakistan and India to work towards a responsible resolution that maintains long-term peace and regional stability in South Asia."[xii]

The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "very concerned" about Indian military strikes on Pakistan.[xiii]

Additionally, China called on both India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and put peace and stability first, its foreign ministry said in response to the military escalation between the South Asian countries. The Chinese ministry said in a statement that it regrets India's military action and is concerned about the current situation.[xiv]

Meanwhile, Russia's foreign ministry said on May 7 that it was deeply concerned about the deepening military confrontation between India and Pakistan, and that it called for both countries to show restraint.[xv]

Earlier, relations between India and Pakistan, the nuclear-armed neighbors, have nosedived since the terrorist attack killing twenty-six people on April 22 in Pahalgam, Indian Kashmir. India has accused Pakistan of involvement and found two of the three assailants in the attack as Pakistani. However, Islamabad denied any role in the attack. Pakistan said it has intelligence that India intends to launch military action against it soon.[xvi]

What Next?

There is increased tension on the LOC, Kashmir. Surprisingly, both India and Pakistan are claiming victory of sorts, and media disinformation and exaggerated claims are being made by both countries. India has signaled that it wants to avoid escalation, while Pakistan may seek revenge for the May 7 attacks. Given the nature of the historic Kashmir territorial dispute, both countries are stuck in their respective frameworks. The problem is still that a proper reaction by one can easily be construed as escalatory by the other, and the risk of miscalculation is still high, resultantly. Action and reaction developments may lead to escalation. Hence, the looming threat of a wider war. Given the heightened emotions and enmities in both rival India and Pakistan, the risk of a wider war cannot be ruled out. Although no one wants a war, it can happen nonetheless because of increased tensions and miscalculations due to misperceptions in both countries. Notwithstanding the blame game and intense nationalistic sentiment in both India and Pakistan, a full-fledged war is out of the question because both have formidable nuclear arsenals. Hence, the need to avoid any miscalculations that may inadvertently lead to an undesirable outcome. Only outside intervention can stop this from happening. The only country with the required prestige in both rival countries is the US. However, the Trump administration is not playing the desired role of a facilitator or mediator to resolve the Kashmir dispute finally times to come. There cannot be peace in South Asia without the dispute being resolved. Hence, the need for quick, desired intervention by the U.S.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[i] Sophia Saifi, Rhea Mogul and Jessie Yeung, "India and Pakistan are on the brink of wider conflict. Here's what we know", CNN, Wed May 7, 2025, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/07/asia/operation-sindoor-india-pakistan-attack-wwk-intl-hnk?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc, and Sophia Saifi, Vedika Sud, Jerome Taylor, Ross Adkin, Rhea Mogul and Helen Regan, "India strikes deep inside Pakistan, Pakistan claims 5 Indian jets shot down, in major escalation",  CNN, May 7, 2025, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl, and What we know about India's strike on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Flora Drury, May 7, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o and Indian attacks in Pakistan raise fears of wider conflict, Yashraj Sharma, Aljazeera, May 7, 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/5/6/india-pakistan-fighting-live-india-fires-missiles-into-pakistan and Kay Johnson, Rupam Jain, Farouq Suleiman, Kylie Maclellan, Christina Anagnostopoulos, and Alison Williams, "India-Pakistan Live: Islamabad vows retaliation after India's 'Operation Sindhoor' strikes kill 26", Reuters, May 7, 2025, India-Pakistan Live: Islamabad vows retaliation after India's 'Operation Sindoor' strikes kill 26 | Reuters and India's Defence minister claims attacks did not affect civilians. Aljazeera, May 7, 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/5/6/india-pakistan-fighting-live-india-fires-missiles-into-pakistan

[ii] Kay Johnson, Rupam Jain, Farouq Suleiman, Kylie Maclellan, Christina Anagnostopoulos, and Alison Williams, "India-Pakistan Live: Islamabad vows retaliation after India's 'Operation Sindhoor' strikes kill 26", Reuters, May 7, 2025, India-Pakistan Live: Islamabad vows retaliation after India's 'Operation Sindhoor' strikes kill 26 | Reuters

[iii] Rhea Mogul, CNN, May 6, 2025, Kashmir attack: Major airlines are avoiding Pakistan's airspace as tensions with India remain high | CNN.

[iv] Kay Johnson, Rupam Jain, Farouq Suleiman, Kylie Maclellan, Christina Anagnostopoulos, and Alison Williams, "India-Pakistan Live: Islamabad vows retaliation after India's 'Operation Sindhoor' strikes kill 26", Reuters, May 7, 2025, India-Pakistan Live: Islamabad vows retaliation after India's 'Operation Sindhoor' strikes kill 26 | Reuters

[v] Sophia Saifi, Rhea Mogul, and Jessie Yeung, "India and Pakistan are on the brink of wider conflict. Here's what we know," CNN, Wed May 7, 2025, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/07/asia/operation-sindoor-india-pakistan-attack-wwk-intl-hnk?iid=cnn_buildContentRecirc_end_recirc

[vi] Sophia Saifi, Vedika Sud, Jerome Taylor, Ross Adkin, Rhea Mogul, and Helen Regan, "India strikes deep inside Pakistan, Pakistan claims 5 Indian jets shot down, in major escalation", CNN, May 7, 2025, https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl,

[vii] Pakistan downs five Indian fighter jets in retaliation for India's missile attack, Express Tribune, May 7, 2025

[viii] Ibid

[ix] India attacks dam near Neelum Jhelum project, Pakistan responds with force, Daily Times, May 7, 2025. India attacks dam near Neelum Jhelum project, Pakistan responds with force.

[x] Kay Johnson, Rupam Jain, Farouq Suleiman, Kylie Maclellan, Christina Anagnostopoulos, and Alison Williams, "India-Pakistan Live: Islamabad vows retaliation after India's 'Operation Sindhoor' strikes kill 26", Reuters, May 7, 2025, India-Pakistan Live: Islamabad vows retaliation after India's 'Operation Sindhoor' strikes kill 26 | Reuters

[xi] World leaders urge restraint after growing Pakistan-India tensions, The News, May 07, 2025, https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1309156-world-leaders-officials-urge-restraint-after-growing-pakistan-india-tensions, and What we know about India's strike on Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Flora Drury, May 7, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o.

[xii] World leaders urge restraint after growing Pakistan-India tensions, The News, May 07, 2025, https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1309156-world-leaders-officials-urge-restraint-after-growing-pakistan-india-tensions

[xiii] World leaders urge restraint after growing Pakistan-India tensions, The News, May 07, 2025, https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1309156-world-leaders-officials-urge-restraint-after-growing-pakistan-india-tensions

[xiv] World leaders urge restraint after growing Pakistan-India tensions, The News, May 07, 2025, https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1309156-world-leaders-officials-urge-restraint-after-growing-pakistan-india-tensions

[xv] Ibid

[xvi] Sheikh Saadiq, "India and Pakistan face off over Kashmir attack. Here's where the rivals stand", Associated Press, May 6, 2025, India and Pakistan face off over Kashmir attack. Here's where the rivals stand,