For years, the U.S. has provided the Middle East with security through military installations, the buying and selling of weapons, and diplomatic power. Yet, with the quick advancement of China's economy and the mingling of diplomatic ties, Washington's global dominance becomes overshadowed. China's strategy, often called "hedging," is dealing with all parties in the game, but never forming a loyalty with the single. Regardless, China's spending in the Middle East on infrastructure, energy, and weapons is more countering Washington's interests and the peace-and-security architecture in the region.
China is surpassing all its competitors in the Middle East primarily because of its domination in trade and investment. the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has sponsored the construction of trade docks, multi-sector industrial parks, and energy infrastructures in the Gulf as well as , importation of oil, becomes China's largest single flowing industry. China earns over 40 percent of its energy from the Gulf countries. With investments and the lack of interference with domestic matters, China becomes more appealing than the U.S. as an ally to many in the region.
About diplomatic relations, China has intertwined its economic endeavors with arms dealings and conflict resolution. China has organized the China–Arab States Cooperation Forum and has mediated significant conflicts like the Iran and Saudi Arabia rapprochement in 2023. Iran sees China’s diplomacy as a counter to U.S. pressure, while the Gulf monarchs value Beijing's neutrality. Even though China has a low-key military footprint, its arms export including ballistic missiles and drones, are noteworthy, and provide a substitute to U.S. competitors with tight control on such sales.
Yet, China is still displaying behavior beyond just simple hedging. International relations scholars highlight a particular form of a ‘semi-hierarchical’ regional order, where some of the Gulf states possess a security reliance on one dominant power, while others seek self-sufficiency. This, in turn, pushes China to strategically ‘outbid’ the U.S. by presenting the Gulf states with a more lucrative economic, technological, and military portfolio. Without military confrontation and by investing in BRI, advanced military drones, and 5G networks, China is trying to U.S. protect its position at the top of the global order. it is still U.S. aligned states Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s dependency on U.S. security which is further complicating the China problem. While Iran is deepening its associations with China, it still retains its autonomous position, careful not to fall into the snare of over-dependence on Beijing. There is also the practice of hedging by regional states. Gulf monarchies and Iran continue to maintain security relationships with Washington while also fostering economic and technological relationships with China. A Saudi Arabia case in point, is that it hosts American military personnel but also diversifies its military suppliers by acquiring missiles and drones from China. Iran, under U.S. sanctions, has entered into a 25-year agreement with China, despite its long-standing, self-imposed framework of national independence. Washington's Reaction to China's Grow Power has been minimal. Although the U.S. has a strong military presence, the U.S. reliance on sanctions and military power has upset some regional partners, giving China a growing presence in the region. U.S. concern that China’s 5G networks could be used to spy on the U.S. is also a concern. Unlike Washington, China’s economic imposition is centered around infrastructure. Brookings’ globalization and American primacy report argues that China will supersede, and the U.S. needs to apply innovation to establish in political, economic and technological relations as China are changing the regional politics of the Gulf States. The Gulf states are also playing the U.S. and China against each other to win better arms and energy deals from Washington. China is also challenging the U.S. in high tech, 5G, cyber security and in controlling the narrative around drone proliferation. Activator: Give the following a try: Reverberations of the Shadow of the U.S. China’s Response to Washington, in the Gulf and Africa.
One of the major challenges facing the United States in this region of the world is the diminishing of the U.S. security aegis. For over 30 years, the American military has been the linchpin in securing the region and, because of defense agreements, the U.S. has been able to access military bases located in multiple countries in the Gulf and has about 100,000 troops stationed there. However, following the September 2025 attack on the Qatar U.S. military base, the U.S. security aegis has been questioned. The attack was the first of its kind to directly target a U.S. ally in the region and exposed critical vulnerabilities in the American centric security system. The incident has generated doubts on the U.S’s protective capabilities among its allies, and thus, they have become more receptive to the less robust security partnerships with China. China’s partnerships offer far less stability than the security deals Washington typically provided. Although the U.S. has additional options in this region of the world, the military will always be one of the strongest assets. The approach the U.S. has taken in this region of the world will have to be modified, especially with the military being one of the strongest assets. It will have to be altered by adding more of a focus to economics. The U.S. can stay economically relevant by offering to finance infrastructure, as well as adopting a more pragmatic, and thus, balanced approach to diplomacy.
The Gulf states, though, will have to ensure they do not become over-dependent on just one major world power when they focus on their developing economic ties to China. The Middle East is the newest great power rivalry between China and the U.S. both are in a competition for economic, and geopolitical dominance. They are both trying to win allies in the middle east The U.S. must balance economic and military relations with the Arabian states, to establish a strategy. The results of the economic, and geopolitical competition will shape the future of the middle east and the world.
Muhammad Yousaf Ilyas a visually impaired scholar of International Relations at National Defence University Islamabad.
