The US-Israel war of choice on Iran began on February 28 with massive U.S. and Israeli bombardments of Iran and quickly spread into a regional conflict with broad consequences for worldwide energy and stock markets. Fighting continues across the region, including new Iranian attacks on Gulf states. Despite the relentless US and Israeli bombardment, the Iranian regime is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon. Since the war began, -

On March 14, the US launched a major airstrike on Iranian military installations on Kharg Island, with President Trump claiming that American forces “totally obliterated” key targets during what he described as one of the most powerful bombing raids ever conducted in the Middle East.

The strike came amid escalating hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran following a series of military confrontations across the Middle East. President Trump reiterated Washington’s long-standing position that Iran must never obtain nuclear weapons.

“Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States, the Middle East, or the world,” he declared.

The attack on Kharg Island could intensify regional tensions and raise concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies and maritime security in the Gulf. Iran’s armed forces threatened on March 14 to destroy US-linked oil infrastructure after Trump's statements. The Kharg Island, found around 19 miles off the Iranian mainland, manages 90 percent of Iran’s crude exports. The war has now sparked chaos in global markets and sent oil prices soaring.[1]

On March 14, Trump threatened to strike the oil infrastructure of Iran's Kharg Island hub unless Tehran stopped attacking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a warning that could further roil markets coping with a historic supply disruption. The export terminal lies about 300 miles northwest of the strait.

President Trump said that:[2] Iran could not defend against U.S. attacks. "Iran’s Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what’s left of their country, which isn’t much! The Fake News Media hates to report how well the United States Military has done against Iran, which is totally defeated and wants a deal - But not a deal that I would accept.

Iran, however, showed no sign of capitulating or bowing to U.S.-Israeli military pressure.

Markets were watching for any sign that U.S. strikes had damaged the island's intricate network of pipelines, terminals, and storage tanks. Even minor disruptions could further tighten global supply, adding pressure to a volatile market. Oil prices have swung sharply on Trump's changing comments about the likely duration of the war.

The U.S. embassy in the Iraqi capital Baghdad was hit in a missile attack on March 14.

In other attacks across the region, Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said it had conducted more attacks on Israel with Lebanon's Hezbollah militia.[3]

On March 13, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is wounded and disfigured, said on Friday, questioning Khamenei's ability to govern after nearly two weeks of US and Israeli attacks on Iran.

No images have been released of Khamenei since an Israeli strike at the start of the war that killed much of his family, including his father and wife. His first comments came in a statement read by a television presenter on March 12. In the statement, he vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut and called on neighboring countries to close U.S. bases on their territory or risk Iran targeting them.[4]

As the war expanded, Iran has effectively stopped tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman,  the world's most important energy trade route, and conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil.[5] Oil prices soared back above $100 a barrel, having come down earlier when Trump said the war would be over soon.

Iran said it will not let oil through the Strait of Hormuz until US and Israeli attacks cease.[6]

The Strait of Hormuz is bounded to the north by Iran and to the south by Oman and the UAE. The corridor is about 33km wide at its narrowest point, which connects the Gulf with the Arabian Sea. In 2025, about 20 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz per day, which is $600bn worth of energy trade per year. The oil comes not only from Iran, but also from other Gulf states such as Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.[7] About 3,000 or so ships usually sail through the strait each month.

The Strait is de facto closed in that no one dares to go through it, fearing being attacked. If oil and gas coming from the Strait are cut off, that will have significant ramifications for the oil market. Energy prices have soared since the start of the war, with huge swings, coming close to $120 on March 9 before falling back. They stay well above levels before the conflict.

The cost of hiring a supertanker to ship oil from the Middle East to China has almost doubled from last week's price to a record high of more than $400,000.

The almost complete closure of the vital shipping lane has also hurt Gulf countries, like Saudi Arabia, whose economies rely heavily on energy exports. Iran, by comparison, exports about 1.7 million barrels per day, and it exported $67bn worth of oil in the fiscal year ending March 2025, which was the highest oil revenue in the past decade. A blockade of the strait will also hit Asia hard. In 2022, around 82% of crude oil and condensates leaving the Strait of Hormuz were bound for Asian countries. China alone is estimated to buy around 90% of the oil that Iran exports to the global market.

Because China uses that oil to make products, it then exports to other countries, and higher oil prices could also mean higher prices for consumers around the world.

Iran can close the Strait by laying mines using boats and submarines. The US military has said it has eliminated 16 Iranian mine-laying ships in the Strait.[8]

The persistent threat of Strait closure has prompted some Gulf countries to develop alternative export routes. Saudi Arabia runs a 1,200km-long pipeline capable of transporting up to 5 million barrels of crude oil per day. The UAE has connected its inland oilfields to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman via a pipeline with a daily capacity of at least 1.5 million barrels. However, that would lead to a drop in supply of between 8 and 10 million barrels per day.[9]

Saudi Arabia is now using the said pipeline, but the port of Fujairah has been hit by Iran.

Earlier, on March 12, 2026, two tankers were ablaze in an Iraqi port after being hit by suspected Iranian explosive-laden boats, a step-up in attacks that have cut off oil from the Middle East. The attacks were a clear sign of defiance of Trump, who said on March 11 that the US had already won the war. On March 12, three other ships were struck in the Gulf. IRGC claimed responsibility for at least one of those attacks, on a Thai bulk carrier that was set ablaze, which the IRGC said had disobeyed their orders. Another container vessel reported being struck near the UAE on March 12, 2026.[10]

On March 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered the largest disruption to global oil markets in history, with supply expected to fall by about eight million barrels per day in March, or around 8%. The agency's member countries responded by agreeing to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic stockpiles to stabilize oil prices and compensate for the loss of Middle East output. [11]

Earlier, undermining U.S. and Israeli claims to have knocked out much of Iran's stock of long-range weapons, more drones were reported on March 12 flying into Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, and Oman. Lebanon's Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired its biggest volley of rockets into Israel during the war, prompting fresh Israeli strikes on Beirut.

Earlier, Trump repeatedly tried to calm energy markets by saying the surge in oil prices would be short-lived.

Earlier, on March 12, Trump said the US profited from higher oil prices, but that his priority was stopping Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The US is a net oil exporter but is also the world's biggest oil consumer. Sustained soaring prices would cause broad inflation.[12]

The war is spreading to the seas, with oil tankers hit by Iranian attacks, an Omani port set ablaze, and multiple vessels hit by projectiles near the Strait of Hormuz. The growing conflict is deepening fears about the impact on the global economy.[13]

Meanwhile, several Asian countries are taking drastic action to reduce their oil consumption. Universities in Bangladesh have closed to save energy. Austerity measures in Pakistan have shuttered schools and shifted services online. Vietnam is calling on companies to encourage remote working, while Thailand has ordered government workers to work from home.[14]

Trump also said the US was going to be hitting Iran "very hard over the next week", shortly after issuing a partial 30-day waiver for purchases of sanctioned Russian oil, hoping to ease prices fueled by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Prices have been affected by Trump's changing comments on the likely duration of the war, which has prompted Iran to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has previously said the war is "complete" and also promised to guarantee the safety of vessels in the strait. On March 13, Trump said the US would escort shipping there "if we needed to”. Benchmark Brent crude eased about 0.6% to around $99.80, still up almost 40% since the start of the conflict. [15]

Meanwhile, Iran fired more missiles and drones at Israel, and Iranian drones were reported flying into Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, Bahrain, and Oman. The Israeli military launched strikes across Tehran. It said its air force had struck more than 200 targets in western and central Iran over the past day, including ballistic missile launchers, air defense systems, and weapons production sites.[16]

The US has conducted strikes against more than 6,000 targets in Iran. As many as 150 U.S. troops have been wounded in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. So far, the war has killed more than 2,000 people, including almost 700 in Lebanon.[17]

The US is deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East, a rapid response unit typically comprised of around 2,500 Marines and sailors.

Meanwhile, Trump said on March 13 that he will know when the war is over when he feels it “in my bones,” offering yet another personal measure for when the conflict might come to an end.[18]

Meanwhile, the war is getting exorbitantly expensive. In the first six days of the war, Iran had cost the United States at least $11.3 billion. It is expected that the White House will soon make a request to Congress for more funding for the war. Some officials have said the request could be for $50 billion. The Trump administration has not provided a public assessment of the cost of the conflict or a clear idea of its expected duration. Trump said on March 11 that "we won" the war but that the United States will stay in the fight to finish the job. The war has thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos.

Administration officials have also told lawmakers that $5.6 billion of munitions were used during the first two days of strikes. Members of the U.S. Congress have expressed concern that the conflict will deplete U.S. military stocks at a time when the defense industry is already struggling to keep up with demand. Trump met executives from seven defense contractors recently as the Pentagon worked to replenish supplies.

Democratic lawmakers have demanded public testimony under oath from administration officials about the Republican president's plans for the war, including how long it might last and what his plans are for Iran once the fighting has stopped.[19] And in a rare show of GOP criticism, Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski slammed Trump’s handling of the war, demanding public hearings and saying that mixed messaging from the administration is leading to confusion.

Meanwhile, Iranian President Pezeshkian and other Iranian officials said that the US must recognize Iran’s legitimate rights, pay reparations, and provide firm international guarantees against future aggression. The gist of the statements coming from Tehran is that, under the current circumstances, Iran will not negotiate, offer a ceasefire, or engage in diplomacy with the US while it continues to face air attacks from it and Israel.[20]

At the same time, Iran’s ambassador to the UN wrote to the secretary-general earlier this week calling on the international community, and the UN Security Council in particular, to urge the US and Israel to halt their attacks.

The war, which was launched by the United States and Israel and has so far killed around 2,000 people, has caused the biggest disruption to global energy supplies since the oil shocks of the 1970s.[21]

Oil prices that had come down earlier in the week after Trump said the war would soon be over blasted back above $100 a barrel.

Iran has said it would not allow oil through the world's most important energy trade route - the Strait of Hormuz that runs along its coast - until U.S. and Israeli attacks ceased, and it would not conduct any negotiations with Washington.[22]

On March 12, 2026, two tankers were ablaze in Iraqi waters on Thursday, a clear escalation in Iranian attacks that have cut off Middle East energy supplies, defying President Donald Trump's claim to have already won the war he launched two weeks ago.

Iraqi authorities said the vessels had been attacked overnight by Iranian boats laden with explosives. At least one crew member was killed.

Hours earlier, three other ships had been struck in the Gulf. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for at least one of those attacks, on a Thai bulk carrier that was set ablaze, which the Guards said had disobeyed their orders.

Another container vessel reported being struck by an unknown projectile near the United Arab Emirates on Thursday, a maritime security authority said.

The war, which was launched by the United States and Israel and has so far killed around 2,000 people, has caused the biggest disruption to global energy supplies since the oil shocks of the 1970s.[23]

Iran has said it would not allow oil through the Strait of Hormuz until U.S. and Israeli attacks ceased, and it would not conduct any negotiations with Washington.

Citibank announced on Thursday it would temporarily shut its branches in the UAE, a day after Iran said it considered banks to be legitimate targets and warned Middle East residents to stay 1,000 meters from them. HSBC has shut branches in Qatar.

Thursday's surge in oil prices came despite the announcement the previous day that developed countries would release 400 million barrels of oil from their strategic reserves, nearly half from the United States.

That is by far the biggest ever coordinated intervention in the oil markets. But it would take months to conduct and account for just three weeks of supply from the blockaded strait.

Trump has repeatedly tried to calm energy markets this week by saying the war will soon be over and the surge in oil prices will be short-lived.

But he has not fully explained how the war will end or presented a plan to reopen the blockaded strait. US and Israeli officials say the aim is to destroy Iran's missile and nuclear programs, but Trump has also demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender" and the power to decide its leaders.

Iran has made clear over the past two days that its strategy now is to impose a prolonged economic shock on the world to force Trump to back off.

The spokesperson for Iran's military command said on March 11 that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 a barrel because of instability caused by the US. That would be well above the highest oil price in the history of $147.27 in July 2008, weeks before the start of the global fiscal crisis.

Trump said on March 11 that the huge release of reserves would "substantially reduce oil prices as we end this threat to America and the world".

Iran also hit fuel tanks in Bahrain, and drones struck oil storage facilities at Oman's Salalah port on Wednesday. Saudi Arabia said it had also intercepted several drones heading towards its Shaybah oilfield on Thursday.[24]

Several ships are reported to have come under attack in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has said it would "set fire" to any ships trying to pass through the Strait, but an exceedingly small amount of traffic has continued.[25]

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end the biggest US military operation since 2003 “soon.” But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran's hardline leaders stay firmly entrenched.

The cohesion of Iran's clerical leadership is present despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28.

Since launching their war, the US and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the US operation, Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides have since denied that the aim was to oust Iran's leadership.[26]

In addition to Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the IRGC, an elite paramilitary force that controls large parts of the economy.[27]

Still, US intelligence reports show that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after Khamenei's death keep control of the country.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact. However, it is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would topple the government. It would require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending US troops into Iran. Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the U.S. about how and whether to attack Iran's security forces in the western part of the country.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to revolt against the government.

Abdullah Mohtadi, the head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on March 11 that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive US support.

Mohtasib said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of US and Israeli strikes. “We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.[28]

However,  recent US intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services. The intelligence reports show that the groups lack firepower and numbers. The Iranian Kurdish groups have recently asked the US to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles. However, Trump said on March 7 that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran.[29]

Earlier, member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) had agreed on March 11 to release 400 million barrels of oil into the global market, which will be the largest release of emergency oil stocks in history. Soon after, Trump authorized the US to release 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve beginning next week.[30]

Oman has evacuated all vessels from its key oil export terminal at Mina Al Fahal as a precautionary measure. Iran had earlier stepped-up attacks on merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising the number of ships struck in the region since fighting began to at least 16.[31]

Iran appeared to have set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, warning the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel in defiance of  Trump's claim that the US had already won the war.

The war has so far killed around 2,000 people, mostly Iranians, and thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos. The conflict has spread across the Middle East and prompted plans for a record release of strategic oil reserves to dampen one of the worst fuel shocks since the 1970s.

Earlier, Trump said the US had won the war but did not want to have to go back every two years.

"We don't want to leave early, do we?" he said on Wednesday. "We've got to finish the job."[32]

Earlier, on March 11, an Iranian military spokesperson said the Strait was "undoubtedly" under Iran's control, and the G7 group of nations (the US, Canada, Japan, Italy, Britain, Germany, and France) had agreed to examine the option of providing escort for ships so they can navigate freely in the Gulf.

Trump told US forces had knocked out 58 Iranian naval ships and that Iran was "pretty much at the end of the line."

He said the US would now "look very strongly" at the Strait of Hormuz, adding: "The straits are in great shape. We have knocked out all their boats. They have some missiles, but not very many."

Trump said earlier that ships "should" transit through the strait, but sources said Iran had deployed about a dozen mines in the channel, further complicating the blockade.

US and Israeli officials have said they aim to end Iran's ability to project force beyond its borders and destroy its nuclear program.

Trump and other officials have sent mixed messages about whether regime change was another goal after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the first strikes and replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

The US also warned that Iran and aligned militias may be planning to target US-owned oil and energy infrastructure in Iraq.

The US military told Iranians to stay clear of ports with Iranian navy facilities, drawing a warning from Iran's military that if the ports were threatened, economic and trade centers in the region would be "legitimate targets.”[33]

President Trump welcomed a coordinated release of oil reserves and said the U.S. is working to keep energy supplies flowing as military operations against Iran continue. 

Earlier, on March 11, 2026, in an overwhelming vote, the UN Security Council backed a resolution condemning Iran. A Russian proposal calling for an end to the war that did not assign blame or even name the parties was rejected. [34]

Escalating Iranian attacks and the U.S. government’s decision to hold off on military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world’s most important energy-transport route.

On March 11, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck three cargo ships attempting to transit the waterway, the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf. It warned that any other vessels trying to move through the strait also would be targeted.[35]

Global oil prices surged back above $100 a barrel on March 12, 2026, as the widening Middle East conflict stoked supply disruption fears, and despite Efforts by the U.S. and the International Energy Agency to unleash the largest distribution of oil reserves in history, it did not keep oil futures from increasing. Front-month Brent crude oil futures jumped 9% to $100.29 in Asian trading on March 12, 2026, Thursday, while front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 8.9% to $94.97 a barrel. Oil prices, which shot up earlier in the week to $120 a barrel before retreating, jumped almost 10% back above $100 a barrel in Asian trade on Thursday amid renewed fears about supply disruption. Wall Street's main share index fell, and stocks in Asia followed suit.

Iran has made clear it intends to impose a prolonged economic shock, with the spokesperson for Iran's military command saying in remarks directed at the US on Wednesday: "Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel, because the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilized."[36]

The International Energy Agency (IEA), made up of major oil-consuming nations, on Wednesday recommended releasing 400 million barrels from global strategic reserves to dampen one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s, the biggest such intervention in history.

Trump said the IEA decision "will substantially reduce oil prices as we end this threat to America and the world."

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Trump had authorized the release of 172 million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve from next week.

Houthis in Yemen and other Iran-backed groups could shut the Red Sea strait at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula. Container ships were struck off the coast of Dubai and Iraq, and Bahrain also announced a new strike targeting its oil facilities.

The U.S. military has turned down requests to escort tankers or other civilian ships through the strait, with defense officials saying it will not do so until the threat of Iranian fire has eased. The head of U.S. Central Command said its focus stays on destroying Iran’s missiles and drones.

Oil futures rallied as traders eyed continued trouble in and around the Strait of Hormuz, even as the U.S. Energy Department said it would release 172 million barrels of oil from the country’s emergency stockpiles, part of a broader global effort.

Iraqi officials called for more protection of maritime routes after reporting that two foreign tankers had been hit in Iraqi waters, catching fire and leaking oil. Bahrain said Iran had targeted fuel tanks at one of its facilities.

Israel carried out fresh airstrikes on Hezbollah targets after the Lebanese militia launched dozens of rockets at Israel.

Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and Kuwait said they were targeted by drone attacks.[37]

In Israel, explosions rang out before dawn from air defenses intercepting missiles. Sirens sent Israelis to shelters.

Israel also launched a barrage in Beirut aimed at rooting out the Iran-backed group Hezbollah, which has fired into Israel from Lebanon in solidarity with Tehran.

More than 1,300 Iranian civilians have been killed since the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, according to Iran's U.N. ambassador, Amir Saeid Iravani. Scores have also been killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Iranian strikes on Israel have killed at least 11 people, and two Israeli soldiers have died in Lebanon. Washington says seven U.S. soldiers have been killed and around 140 have been wounded.

The death toll continues to rise. The war has killed at least 1,230 people in Iran, at least 486 in Lebanon, and 11 in Israel, according to officials in those countries. Iran launched new attacks on Israel and Gulf countries on Tuesday, keeping up pressure on the Middle East. The United Arab Emirates’ Defense Ministry said nine drones hit the country and reported two more deaths. Authorities in Bahrain said an Iranian attack killed one person and wounded eight others. Saudi Arabia said it destroyed two drones over its oil-rich eastern region, and Kuwait’s National Guard said it shot down six drones.[38]

US Defense Secretary Hegseth said Tuesday morning that “today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran.” Speaking at the same Pentagon news briefing, the U.S. Joint Chiefs chairman said Iran’s missile attacks have fallen 90%.

U.S. President Donald Trump sent contradictory messages on Monday, telling Republican lawmakers the war was likely to be a “short excursion,” but threatening in a social media post hours later that the U.S. would dramatically increase attacks if Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been targeting energy infrastructure and traffic through the strait, which is a vital waterway for traded oil.

The U.S. stock market steadied early Tuesday after Trump’s comments fueled wild swings on hopes for a quick end to the war. Oil prices briefly shot to their highest level since 2022 after Iran selected Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his late father as Iran’s supreme leader.

Earlier, the US and Israel continued to strike Iran. On March 10, the US said it was striking Iranian ships capable of mining the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed by Iranian threats.

Meanwhile, Israel had also launched new waves of strikes both in Beirut and Tehran, where residents hunkered down after being smothered by black rain from Israeli bombing of fuel depots.

In response, Iran had continued to unleash strikes around the region, with the government saying on Wednesday that it conducted its own "most intense and heaviest" salvo. It has also definitely stated that it is not seeking a ceasefire.[39]

Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict rages on. The IRGC released a list on March 11 of offices and infrastructure run by top US companies with Israeli links whose technology has been used for military applications, describing them as “Iran’s new targets”.

These companies include Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle, and the listed offices and infrastructure for cloud-based services are in multiple Israeli cities, as well as in some Gulf countries.[40]

Meanwhile, Bahrain moved Gulf Air and cargo planes to alternative airports to keep safe and efficient operations. Iranian attacks on infrastructure across the Gulf continued to disrupt air traffic, hampering efforts to restore flights as the war on Iran entered its 12th day. The US-Israel war against Iran has led to tens of thousands of flight cancellations, rerouting, and schedule changes worldwide, shutting down much of the Middle East’s airspace due to missile and drone threats.

The war has plunged aviation into its worst crisis since the pandemic, as Dubai International Airport (DXB), the busiest hub for global passengers, and other regional airports are critical transit points for long-haul travel.

The conflict has also disrupted a key oil export corridor, leading to a spike in jet fuel prices, pushing fares higher on some routes and deepening concern about a broader hit to travel demand. Time-sensitive air cargo was also heavily affected.[41]

Meanwhile, President Trump had downplayed soaring oil prices, arguing that the US benefits from high energy costs. Trump’s energy secretary said the US Navy is not yet ready to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz as Iran attacks ships in the waterway. The national average for a gallon of fuel is currently $3.59 – up from $2.94 a month ago.[42]

Meanwhile, Israeli aggression in Lebanon continues. Israeli strikes and mass evacuation orders in Lebanon could push the number of displaced people to more than one million within two to three days, said Othman Belbeisi, Middle East and North Africa director of the International Organization of Migration (IOM).

Israel issued another evacuation order to residents in southern Lebanon on March 12, nearly doubling the area residents have been told to leave and recommending that they move north of the Zahrani River.

More than 800,000 people have already been displaced, the United Nations resident and humanitarian coordinator in Lebanon said on March 12, while 700 people have been killed by Israeli strikes, according to the Lebanese health ministry.[43]

Former US Secretary of State John Kerry said that the energy shock resulting from the United States and Israel’s war with Iran is one of the worst global crises in decades.

“It’s very dangerous,” Kerry said on March 12. “Hope diplomacy will re-enter in a very forceful way in the next days… It is incredibly important for the world that folks find an off-ramp here.”

Kerry said the crisis was one of the worst in decades and could get “even more out of control.”

“You’ve seen what’s happened to (energy) prices – that will flow down into everybody’s economy if it goes on too long,” he said.

Having collaborated closely with the Iranians during the negotiations by the Obama administration, which led to the 2015 nuclear deal, Kerry warned that Tehran could drag the conflict out, inflicting further economic pain.

“No one should underestimate Iran’s capacity to conduct asymmetrical warfare. They have proven it previously. They are practiced at it,” he said. “I just don’t know to what degree – if at all – those considerations were taken into account here in the (Trump administration’s) decision-making.”[44]

Undoubtedly, Iran had planned to conduct a prolonged asymmetrical war with the US-Israel and had prepared for it for decades. Iran’s strategy now is to impose a prolonged economic shock to force Trump to back off. A spokesperson for Iran's military command said on Wednesday that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 a barrel.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration says the first six days of the Iran war cost $11.3b. The estimate was shared in a closed congressional briefing and, administration officials say, covers the immediate campaign expenses but not the full scope of costs associated with military buildup and ongoing operations. Lawmakers pressing for more detailed figures have been told that the total is expected to rise as further assessments are completed.

Some congressional aides have shown the White House may seek as much as $50 billion in supplemental funding for the conflict. Public details about the administration’s overall cost projections and the projected duration of the war remain limited.

Trump has publicly characterized the conflict as effectively won, even as Defence officials warn that continued operations will require significant resources.

Meanwhile, Gulf Arab governments have expressed deep anger over Iranian attacks on their territories but are pushing strongly for diplomacy as the preferred path forward. The Gulf states reject Tehran’s justification that strikes on their soil are legitimate because of their alliances with the United States. They argue that Iran’s interpretation is both exaggerated and strategically flawed, and they have accused Tehran of miscalculating the regional impact of its actions.

Despite public outrage and repeated condemnations, Gulf leaders have reiterated that military escalation is not a solution. They see robust Defence measures — including missile-intercept systems — as necessary, but stress that a broader conflict would be damaging for all parties involved.

Senior Gulf officials have underscored the necessity of diplomacy, saying that even after the current hostilities end, their countries will remain neighbors to Iran and must find a way to coexist. They have looked to assure their domestic audiences that avoiding deeper involvement in the war is still a top priority, and that restraint and negotiations offer the best chance of long-term stability.

Meanwhile, Iran had set ablaze two tankers in Iraqi waters as it stepped up attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East, warning the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel in defiance of Trump's claim that the US had already won the war.

Unleashed with joint US and Israeli air strikes on Iran almost two weeks ago, the war has so far killed around 2,000 people and thrown global energy markets and transport into chaos. The conflict has spread across the Middle East and prompted plans for a record release of strategic oil reserves to dampen one of the worst fuel shocks since the 1970s.

What Next?

The opposition to the war is growing all over the world, even in the US. Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen said Congress should not fund the Trump administration’s assault on Iran.

“Not one more dime for an illegal war of choice that is making us less safe,” Van Hollen wrote on X.

“The best way to protect our troops, end the killing of school children and civilians, reduce skyrocketing oil and gas prices, and stop wasting billions of taxpayer dollars is to cut off the funding.”

In the US system, Congress distributes money to the federal government, including the Pentagon. With Trump’s Republican Party in control of the Senate and the House of Representatives, Democrats are unlikely to succeed in defunding the war.

But the push highlights the growing opposition to the conflict, which Trump launched without congressional approval.[45]

Notwithstanding the claims of the Trump administration and Netanyahu’s government, the US-Israel war of choice on Iran is a violation of international law. The Guardian’s editorial entitled “The Guardian view on the Iran war and international law: it’s worse than a mistake; it’s a crime” on March 13, 2026, brilliantly said that:

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the international condemnation from Europe and elsewhere was loud and clear. Leaders did not expect legal threats to shift Vladimir Putin or end war crimes by his troops. But they understood the importance of naming what had happened as an illegal act of aggression, and of looking to hold those responsible accountable. The same countries have been strikingly muted since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran. This, too, was an act of aggression. Spain’s Pedro Sánchez has been lonely in his forthright condemnation, though Norway and others also pointed to the breach of international law. Meanwhile, Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, offered unreserved support, and Germany’s chancellor, Friedrich Merz, declared that it was “not the moment to lecture our partners and allies”. As in Ukraine, the original sin has quickly been compounded, with the deaths of over a thousand civilians reported in Iran alone – including in the strike on a girls’ school which killed at least 175 people, mostly children: evidence points to US responsibility. Serious violations of the laws of war, reckless as well as deliberate, constitute war crimes. The US Defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, declared on Friday that “no quarter will be given” to the enemy – a violation of international humanitarian law. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, in retaliation for Hezbollah attacks defending Iran, are at a minimum disproportionate – as Katja Kallas, the EU foreign affairs chief, has implied – with vast civilian displacement and damage to infrastructure. That Iran is also committing war crimes does not lessen US or Israeli culpability. The contrast between the West’s rhetoric about universal standards and its selective outrage is glaringly and increasingly clear to people around the world…. Each time, the belief in international law as an essential framework for conduct was further undermined. Each time, an implicit license was given for further breaches. Double standards reflect disquiet about the Venezuelan and Iranian regimes, fear of angering the US president, and the prioritization of Ukraine’s needs. But some are also adopting US arguments. When Donald Trump declared that his “own morality” was the only limit on his global powers, the problem was not merely his character. Yet as the war on Iran began, Chancellor Merz asked: “What should we do when international law clearly reaches its limits?” As Dr. Tamer Morris of the University of Sydney notes: “The purpose of international law is not to determine who is morally good; it is to maintain order in a world where every state believes it is waging the ‘good’ fight.” Mr. Merz and others are growing more critical as this war’s impact becomes clearer. But it should not be challenged solely on pragmatic or even ethical grounds. The difficulty of upholding international law and the limits of its scope are no reason to jettison it. If those who lament the decline of the rules-based order remain complicit with the erosion of law, we will all be in greater danger.

The US-Israel war is escalating with no de-escalation in sight. This is a dangerous moment as the needed off-ramp is not available. The war will further engulf the region in destabilization and turmoil. The global economy will suffer further because of the oil and gas price shocks and disruptions of commerce. Given Iran’s desperate situation and threat of collapse, it is being quietly backed by both Russia and China, which is bound to increase in scope. Iran is proving resilient as it was prepared for the war. Both the US and Israel had underestimated Iran’s resilience, underlying unity, fierce nationalism, and even war preparedness.

Meanwhile, the question both Trump and Netanyahu face now is: without regime change in Tehran, how long before the next time?

The damage to Iran's weapons program this time is far deeper than before. Iran’s production sites and leadership were targeted alongside missile stocks and launchers. The US and Israel planned their joint attack on Iran together over several months.

There is a political risk for Netanyahu in leaving the regime intact. Hamas still controls half of Gaza. Hezbollah is now putting up a much bigger fight than imagined, and after the June 2025 war against Iran, Israel and the US are back in an even bigger war against Iran. Netanyahu has made a career out of defending Israel against the so-called Iranian threat. He is now facing a tricky situation.[46]

President Trump was also now faced with a dilemma. Yaroslav Trofimov, in his excellent article “Ending the Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and Allies,” published in the Wall Street Journal on  March 11, 2026, had aptly argued that: [47]

President Trump—faced with rising oil prices and pushback from his MAGA base—is signaling that he wants to wind down the war he launched against Iran less than two weeks ago. But stopping the fighting carries big risks, even if Iran lets him. If Trump proclaims victory, stops the bombing, and begins to withdraw the huge air and naval assets he assembled in the Middle East, it could soothe global markets, at least in the short term, and reassure American voters uneasy about the prospect of another forever war. Leaving the regime undefeated could motivate Tehran to develop nuclear weapons and leave it in control of much of the world’s energy flows.

Thus, President Trump has not yet explained how the war will end or presented a plan to reopen the blockaded strait. The US and Israel state that the aim is to destroy Iran's missile and nuclear programs, but Trump has also demanded the destruction of Iran’s navy, Iran's "unconditional surrender," and the power to decide its leaders, and more. He does not have any coherent strategy for ending the war. What is now desperately needed is an off-ramp. As the cost of the war rapidly escalates, this is now obvious. However, it will not happen anytime soon, and the war will continue unabated for some time. The region will thereby suffer tremendously, and the global economy, too, will feel the aftershocks. The US is really fighting Israel’s war, not its own. As the war costs climb, the Trump administration might realize the mistake. Whether or not it realizes it, it will pay the cost in the coming November mid-term elections. The overwhelming part of Americans, like other nations, do not want their country engulfed in another fruitless war in the Middle East. The lessons of American defeats in Afghanistan and Iraq have been learnt by many knowledgeable people, but not the Trump administration. It will surely pay a heavy price for that. The Republican Party will lose power in the coming mid-term elections. There was a glimmer of hope of a nuclear deal between the US and Iran just two days before the war began on February 28. But that was not even considered in any serious manner by the Trump administration. Too bad for the US and the Middle East region, and the world.

On March 12, 2026, Oman’s foreign minister, and the mediator in the US-Iran nuclear talks, has claimed the US will not achieve as much through war as it could have achieved in the peace talks.

Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi was speaking to Omani reporters in Muscat and appears to challenge the premise that the war is about Iran’s nuclear program, arguing it was designed to weaken Iran politically.

In the official account of the meeting, it is said: “In describing the background of the war, the minister stated that the decision was not fundamentally linked to the Iranian nuclear program.”

He noted that recent negotiations had reached a very advanced stage, including an Iranian pledge not to have nuclear material capable of producing a bomb, a commitment not to accumulate or store enriched materials, and to convert existing stockpiles into irreversible fuel.

He emphasized that the United States could not have obtained greater concessions through war than those achieved through negotiation.

He added that the true objective of the war was to weaken Iran, reshape the region, and advance the normalization process within a broader context that also included attempts to prevent the establishment of a Palestinian state and to weaken any country or institution that supports or stands with the Palestinian statehood project.

In response to a question about Oman’s position on the ‘peace council’, he stated that Oman would not join the council and would not normalize relations with Israel.

The minister considered the American and Israeli attacks on Iran a new link in a “dangerous chain of violations witnessed in recent years” and said they threatened to undermine the legal framework that had provided protection and stability to the countries of the region for decades.[48]

Today, the US-Israel war of choice is being relentlessly fought with a much-weakened and even beleaguered Iran. Israel wants to destroy Iran completely, even break it into pieces, so that it never challenges it again. Iran has never posed an imminent threat to the US, and therefore, the brazen American attacks on Iran now border on international crimes. The US does not have a war strategy to speak of, and the mercurial nature of President Trump is making it worse. We are now approaching an American ground operation as the Marines head to the Middle East. Thirteen American service members have already been killed, and more will surely follow. War could have been avoided, but it was not. That is a historic mistake and will prove tragic to the US and the Middle East region. Even now, Trump can declare victory as Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been totally vanquished forever. After all, wars are politics by other means, as the strategist Clausewitz says. The US does not have a clear war aim to begin with and has decided not to go for regime change or breakup of Iran as Israel desires. Therefore, after a few more days of relentless and massive strikes on Iranian military targets, the US can declare “Mission Accomplished” and end the war. But the US faces a dilemma as Iran does not want to end the war, as it seeks revenge for its own losses and destruction. If Russia and China step up their aid, which they might do as an opportunity presents itself for them, which simply cannot be missed, then the war will be prolonged further. For the sake of the millions of helpless people inhabiting the Middle East region, we hope it is otherwise. For the sake of America itself, we hope the war ends soon. Alas, it will not, and that is tragic, to say the least.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[1] Trump claims massive US strikes destroy military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, Express Tribune, March 14, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597521/trump-claims-us-obliterated-irans-kharg-island-in-most-powerful-airstrikes-in-mideast-history and Iran threatens US-linked oil targets after Trump says Kharg bombed, AFP, March 14, 2026, https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2636337/middle-east

[2] Bo Erickson, Parisa Hafezi, Maya Gebeily , and Alexander Cornwell, “Trump threatens to hit Iran's Kharg Island oil network if shipping lanes remain blocked”, Reuters, March 14, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-threatens-strike-irans-kharg-island-oil-network-if-shipping-lanes-remain-2026-03-14/

[3] Ibid

[4] Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart, “Iran's new supreme leader wounded, likely disfigured, Hegseth says”, Reuters, March 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/irans-new-supreme-leader-wounded-likely-disfigured-hegseth-says-2026-03-13/

[5] Live Updates: At Least 3 Ships Come Under Attack Near Key Oil Passage, New York Times, March 11, 2026,

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/11/world/iran-war-news-trump-oil-israel and Edited By  PATRICK QUINN, BRIAN P. D. HANNON, FRANK GRIFFITHS, Michael Warren, Drew Callister,  and Peter Osi. “About 140 US troops wounded in Iran war, 8 severely, Pentagon says”, AP News, March 11, 2026, https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump--03-10-2026.

[6] Ibid

[7] Gavin Butler, and Toby Mann, “Strait of Hormuz: What happens if Iran shuts the global oil corridor?”, BBC News, March 12, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78n6p09pzno

[8] Ibid

[9] Ibid

[10] Parisa Hafezi, “Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed in new leader's first statement”, Reuters,

March 12, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-signal-no-quick-end-war-tankers-burn-iraqi-waters-2026-03-12/

[11] Biggest global oil supply disruptions in history, Reuters, March 13, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597464/biggest-global-oil-supply-disruptions-in-history

[12] Ibid

[13] Jessie Yeung and Issy Ronald, “What we know on the 13th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran”, CNN, March 12, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/middleeast/us-israel-iran-middle-east-war-what-we-know-intl-hnk

[14] Ibid

[15]  Parisa Hafezi, Maya Gebeily and Alexander Cornwell, “Trump says US will hit Iran 'very hard' after easing sanctions on Russian oil”, Reuters, March 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/both-sides-dig-iran-war-approaches-two-week-mark-2026-03-13/

[16] Ibid

[17] Idrees Ali, “US carrying out rescue effort after military plane crash in Iraq”, Reuters, March 13, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-carrying-out-rescue-effort-after-losing-aircraft-iraq-us-military-says-2026-03-12/

[18]  Live Updates:  All 6 US crewmembers killed in Iraq plane crash, CNN, March 13, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-13-26

[19] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-administration-estimates-iran-war-cost-over-11-billion-six-days-source-2026-03-11/ and Jessie Yeung and Issy Ronald, “What we know on the 13th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran”, CNN, March 12, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/middleeast/us-israel-iran-middle-east-war-what-we-know-intl-hnk

[20] Towhid Asadi, “Iran refuses negotiations amid US-Israel air attacks”, Aljazeera, March 12, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/12/iran-war-live-oil-tankers-hit-in-iraq-tehran-sets-3-conditions-for-peace?update=4392595

[21] Parisa Hafezi and Bo Erickson, “Oil tankers burn near Iraq as Iranian strikes defy Trump's claim to have won the war”. Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-signal-no-quick-end-war-tankers-burn-iraqi-waters-2026-03-12/

[22] Ibid

[23] Ibid

[24] Ibid

[25] Ibid

[26] US intelligence says Iran leadership still firmly in control despite weeks of strikes”, Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597195/us-intelligence-says-iran-leadership-still-firmly-in-control-despite-weeks-of-strikes

[27] Ibid

[28] Ibid

[29] Ibid

[30] Jessie Yeung and Issy Ronald, “What we know on the 13th day of the US and Israel’s war with Iran”, CNN, March 12, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/03/12/middleeast/us-israel-iran-middle-east-war-what-we-know-intl-hnk

[31] Ibid

[32] Iran tanker attacks ignite Gulf oil fears, challenge Trump’s claim war is won, Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597174/iran-linked-boat-attacks-set-tankers-ablaze-in-iraqi-waters-escalating-gulf-shipping-crisis

[33] Ibid

[34] U.N. Security Council Condemns Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes in the Middle East, NYT, March 12, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/world/middleeast/un-security-council-condemns-iran-strikes.html

[35] Jared Malsin, Summer Said,  and Shelby Holliday, “Escalating Hormuz Crisis Raises Specter of Prolonged Closure, Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/escalating-hormuz-crisis-raises-specter-of-prolonged-closure-7678477e?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1

[36] Iran War Live Updates: Oil Tops $100 a Barrel as Attacks Spread Across Middle East, New York Times, March 12, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/12/world/iran-war-news-trump-oil-israel and Oil Futures Top $100 a Barrel as Iran Threatens Red Sea Route and Continues Strikes, WSJ, March 12, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/us-israel-iran-war-2026, and Parisa Hafezi and Bo Erickson, “Oil tankers burn near Iraq as Iranian strikes defy Trump's claim to have won the war”, Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-signal-no-quick-end-war-tankers-burn-iraqi-waters-2026-03-12/

[37] Iran War Live Updates: Oil Tops $100 a Barrel as Attacks Spread Across Middle East, New York Times, March 12, 2026, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/03/12/world/iran-war-news-trump-oil-israel and Oil Futures Top $100 a Barrel as Iran Threatens Red Sea Route and Continues Strikes, WSJ, March 12, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/us-israel-iran-war-2026

[37] Iran tanker attacks ignite Gulf oil fears, challenge Trump’s claim war is won, Reuters, March 12, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597174/iran-linked-boat-attacks-set-tankers-ablaze-in-iraqi-waters-escalating-gulf-shipping-crisis

[38] PATRICK QUINN, BRIAN P. D. HANNON, FRANK GRIFFITHS, LUENA RODRIGUEZ-FEO VILEIRA, MICHAEL WARREN, DREW CALLISTER, NELL CLARK, and PETER ORSI. “About 140 US troops wounded in Iran war, 8 severely, Pentagon says”, AP News, March 11, 2026, https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump--03-10-2026 and Parisa Hafezi and Alexander Cornwell, “ Iran tells world 'get ready for $200 a barrel', Reuters, March 11, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/combatants-mideast-war-trade-more-air-strikes-iran-clamps-down-dissent-2026-03-11/

[39] Italy won’t join US-Israeli attacks on Iran, says PM Meloni, Express Tribune, March 11, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597040/italy-wont-join-us-israeli-attacks-on-iran-says-pm-meloni

[40] Italy won’t join US-Israeli attacks on Iran, says PM Meloni, Express Tribune, March 11, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597040/italy-wont-join-us-israeli-attacks-on-iran-says-pm-meloni

[41] Drone strikes near Dubai airport deepen Gulf aviation chaos, Reuters, March 11, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2597041/drone-strikes-near-dubai-airport-deepen-gulf-aviation-chaos

[42] We make a lot of money’: Trump spins spiking oil prices as benefit for US, Shari Popat, The Guardian, March 12, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/12/iran-war-live-updates-oil-trump-middle-east-crisis-israel-lebanon-iraq-latest-news?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-69b2cc908f08496505517e19#block-69b2cc908f08496505517e19

[43] https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/12/iran-war-live-updates-oil-trump-middle-east-crisis-israel-lebanon-iraq-latest-news?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-69b2cc908f08496505517e19#block-69b2cc908f08496505517e19

[44] Christian Edwards, “Iran war, energy shock one of the "worst crises in decades," says John Kerry, CNN, March 12, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-12-26?post-id=cmmnmdnem00003b6vhk4uj163

[45] US senators back ending funding for war on Iran” Live Updates Aljazeera, March 14, 2026,

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/3/13/iran-war-live-trump-says-war-going-well-as-gulf-under-wave-of-attacks

[46] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg5yp7v0ppo

[47] Yaroslav Trofimov, “Ending the Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and Allies,” Wall Street Journal,

March 11, 2026, had argued that: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/ending-iran-war-quickly-carries-big-risks-for-the-u-s-and-allies-60c003de?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_2.

[48] Patrick Wintour, “Oman’s foreign minister, and the mediator in the US-Iran nuclear talks, has claimed the US will not achieve as much through war as it could have achieved in the peace talks”, Middle East Crisis Live, The Guardian, March 12, 2026, https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/mar/12/iran-war-live-updates-oil-trump-middle-east-crisis-israel-lebanon-iraq-latest-news