Ever since the US ?and Israel launched their war on Iran in February, the US-Israeli bombing of Iran has killed thousands of people in Iran. Israel has also killed thousands more and driven hundreds of thousands from their homes in Lebanon, which it invaded in pursuit of Hezbollah. Iranian strikes on Israel and neighboring Gulf ?states have killed dozens.[1] A tenuous ceasefire was still in place since April.

Despite heavy losses, the Iranian regime is intact. It has shown remarkable resilience in the face of Israeli and US aggression. As expected, when faced with foreign aggression, nations unite, a phenomenon called the rallying around the flag, which occurred in Iran as well, and has galvanized the Iranian nation. Despite weeks of conflict, Iran had preserved its stockpile of near-weapons-grade enriched uranium as well as missile, drone, and proxy capabilities.[2]

Indirect negotiations continued between the US and Iran through Pakistan and Qatar intermediaries. On May 25, Trump said that Washington and Iran had "largely negotiated" a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been effectively closed. [3]

The US and Iran agreed in principle to a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for Tehran's commitment to dispose of its highly enriched uranium.

The method for disposing of Iran’s highly enriched uranium was still being negotiated.

The proposed deal does not address Iran’s missile stockpile nor include a moratorium on uranium enrichment. These issues were expected to be managed in future rounds of talks.

The US could consider “significant accommodations” on sanctions relief if Iran agreed to make similar concessions about its enriched uranium stockpile.

The US  plan is to deal with all its stockpile of enriched material. The Trump administration sees Iran making “serious accommodations” not previously seen in earlier negotiations. [4]

The US rejected the idea of any “tolling” mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz; such an arrangement would not be acceptable and had not been proposed by either side.

The Trump administration viewed the emerging agreement as stronger than the 2015 nuclear deal reached under former US President Barack Obama, which allowed uranium enrichment up to certain levels.

As part of the agreement, the US would lift its blockade on vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. The  Cento and Gulf partners would coordinate to ensure safe passage; this should not be viewed as a toll system.

Perplexingly, Trump also called on more Arab and Muslim states to sign up to the Abraham Accords, brokered during his first term in office and aimed at normalizing ties between those states and Israel. He said Saudi Arabia and Qatar should at once sign, and Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey should follow suit, calling his request mandatory. The statement reflected an attempt to use the Iran diplomacy for a wider push around the accords, but the two issues were not interlinked and could not be made so. Others saw the suggestion as aimed at making an Iran deal more ?palatable to sceptics. Trump was trying to sell an Iran deal ?as an Abraham Accords project that was good for Israel and good for ?the region. But that was just a fantasy and was not going to happen.[5]

Trump ?has repeatedly said an end to the war is close since mid-March, though the two sides have shown little public movement toward common ground. Iran has called for sanctions to be lifted, foreign assets to be unfrozen, and U.S. forces to be withdrawn from the region. Washington has called for Iran to dismantle its nuclear ?program, which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes.

On May 28, a tentative agreement was reached in talks between the United States and Iran, though President Donald Trump has not signed off on it, and the situation in the region remained tense.[6]

Still, the finalization of text between the two nations was a sign that diplomacy was trying, despite active hostilities between the US and Iran. However, Iran said  that the text of the agreement “has not yet been finalized or made definitive.”[7]

Meanwhile, the conflict was now proving to be a catastrophe for the region. The global public opinion demands that the US end the war despite the aims of its partner, Israel. The Trump administration should now grasp the opportunity and make peace with Iran. There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is extremely repressive, cruel, and corrupt, but that does not mean that the US should replace it. Anyways, a replacement of the Iranian regime would require a massive ground invasion, which is going to prove a strategic mistake leading to unintended and severe consequences for the US and the region. The US can make peace with Iran e. After all, the US does business with other even more repressive regimes like India, Egypt, North Korea, China, and even Israel itself. It is not the responsibility of the US to intervene in other nations’ internal affairs and set things right, as it sees it. This would be a violation of international law and the UN charter, also. It is time for the US to make peace with Iran by recognizing the Islamic regime, no matter how much it is disliked by the American establishment. The American people overwhelmingly want peace, not war with Iran. Therefore, the Trump administration should have taken the difficult path of diplomacy with Iran to resolve the outstanding nuclear issue. Unfortunately, that did not happen as both the US and Israel had decided otherwise. Many American leaders could not come to understand the true nature of the political situation and the political compulsions of the Iranian nation. The Trump administration faced a choice, and it erred because it listened to only favored viewpoints. In hindsight, Trump should have ignored such hawkish views. But they were not, and that was the problem with the current Trump administration. Too many extremist views got accepted in their top decision-making circles. Obviously, that made for bad policy decisions like the mess in the war in Iran.

Iran has responded to the US-Israeli strikes with waves of drone and missile attacks not only toward Israel but also against Gulf states hosting US military installations, including Saudi Arabia, widening the conflict’s regional impact. The escalation has struck key infrastructure across Gulf countries, including airports, ports, hotels, and oil and military facilities. The GCC has been struck badly and is now vociferously condemning Iran. But these vehement comments can be ignored as the Gulf Arabs are not about to enter the war. Given their own weaknesses, these countries are incapable of taking on the Iranians at all. Therefore, all they can do is outright condemnations of Iran and, like the UAE, join the US international force to open the strait. However, military action to do just that is not possible. Iran has the advantage of its strategic location, being north of the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, geography is to its advantage, and the Iranians will exploit it to the best of their ability.

Meanwhile, surveys show the war was unpopular with ?US voters, facing sharply higher gasoline prices less than six months before nationwide elections that will decide whether Trump's Republican party keeps control of Congress.

The US had also found little international support, with ?NATO allies refusing calls to send ships to open the Strait of Hormuz without a full peace deal and an internationally mandated mission.

The Iran war must end now for the sake of the region and even beyond. The way Trump is conducting diplomacy is not proper. He is not asking for professional help in the matter and instead depends on family and friends. This is leading to poor decision-making in the White House. Today,  Trump is searching for a decent withdrawal plan and a face-saving for his beleaguered administration. The Trump administration underestimated the resolve of the Iranians to defend their country from US and Israeli aggression. Plus, the reliance on air strikes to defeat Iran was a mistake. The economic pressure is not working as well.

All wars are politics by other means, as Clausewitz declared a long time ago, and this war is no exception. The problem for the US is that the Trump administration does not have a war strategy. Israel manipulated it to fight its war with Iran. There was no immediate and imminent threat to the USA before the war began a month ago. The US will have to pay a prohibitive cost for the blunder.

The US should end the war despite the aims of its partner, Israel. The Trump administration should now grasp the opportunity and make peace with Iran. There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is extremely repressive, cruel, and corrupt, but that does not mean that the US should replace it. Anyways, a replacement of the Iranian regime would require a massive ground invasion, which is not even contemplated by the Trump administration. Therefore, the idea of whether there is any should be discarded at once. After all, the US does business with other even more repressive regimes like India, Egypt, North Korea, China, and even Israel itself. It is not the responsibility of the US to intervene in other nations’ internal affairs and set things right, as it sees it. This would be a violation of international law and the UN charter, also. It is time for the US to make peace with Iran by recognizing the Islamic regime, no matter how much it is disliked by the American establishment. The American people overwhelmingly want peace, not war with Iran. Therefore, the Trump administration should have taken the difficult path of diplomacy with Iran to resolve the outstanding nuclear issue. Unfortunately, that did not happen as both the US and Israel had decided otherwise. Many American leaders could not come to understand the true nature of the political situation and the political compulsions of the Iranian nation. The Trump administration faced a choice, and it erred because it listened to only favored viewpoints. In hindsight, Trump should have ignored such hawkish views. But they were not, and that was the problem with the current Trump administration. Too many extremist views got accepted in their top decision-making circles. Obviously, that made for bad policy decisions like the mess in the war in Iran.

The conflict continued unabated. Given the recent developments in the conflict, the chances of a breakthrough are very bleak. But back channels are still in operation and must be kept open in the future. Countries do not have permanent enemies, as they have only national interests to protect. In the Second World War, Germany and Japan were mortal enemies of the US, but now they are close friends. Circumstances can change, and even the US can become friends with Iran, as before the Islamic Republic was founded. It is possible that a peace deal between the US and Iran can happen. However, a peace deal between Israel and Iran is not possible. Israel is committing aggression in the region and is being duly opposed by Iran. The enmity between Israel and Iran is very deep. Even if there is a peace deal with the US, Israel will remain bent on the destruction of Iran. Eventually, the US can obviously stop it. Regional politics are changing. A strategic alliance of Russia-China-Iran has appeared. The nature of international politics dictates that China and Russia will help Iran against the US-Israel alliance. Meanwhile, Iran will do whatever it takes to survive. Iran will be victorious if it can survive the joint US-Israeli aggressions of the war.
 

External factors are also supportive of the continuation of the Iranian regime. International politics is becoming both intense and complicated now. If Iran falls, both China and Russia lose a valuable strategic partner. Therefore, both will continue to back Iran only because it is an adversary of the US, which happens to be their adversary as well. In other words, China and Russia will not let Iran collapse altogether. Russia is already helping Iran with intelligence sharing and upgrading drone technology. China is also supplying some weapons. If the war prolongs any further, both will ramp up their support to Iran, making sure it survives the US-Israeli strikes.

Despite heavy losses, the Iranian regime is intact. It has shown remarkable resilience in the face of Israeli and US aggression. The Islamic regime will remain intact and powerful as it has a sturdy foundation in the Iranian state and society. It has built a system that now sustains it.

Most importantly, Iran exerted powerful leverage against the US and its allies, triggering an unprecedented energy supply shock by choking off shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will be emboldened knowing that it will have this weapon at its disposal even after the war. Iran knows that, even in a weakened state, it can shut off the Strait at will. Just knowing it means that  Iran was “stronger than it was before the ?war."[8]

As expected, Iran kept a path to nuclear weapons. Earlier, Trump had taken office and promised to avoid entanglement in foreign interventions, but he also did not achieve his main stated aim in attacking Iran in February: to close off its path to a nuclear weapon.

Though Trump had said he ?would accept nothing less than a long-term solution to the threat ?posed by Iran, he had at times shown signs of seeking an exit plan from an unpopular conflict. Given Trump’s actions, European and Gulf Arab allies had expressed concern that Trump might eventually agree to ?a flawed deal that would allow a wounded Iran to remain a threat.[9]

Meanwhile, the global public opinion has turned against the war. Except for Israel and a minority of Republican supporters inside the US, the people overwhelmingly demand an end to the war. The ongoing conflict will now further engulf the region in destabilization and turmoil. The global economy will suffer further because of the oil and gas price shocks and disruptions of commerce. The conflict shall lead to more unintended consequences. Surely, the entire world will suffer as a result. Therefore, the conflict must be resolved at once. But the needed off-ramp is not available for the Trump administration. But there is a glimmer of hope as Pakistan is acting as an intermediary in the proposed negotiations between Iran and the US for ending the war. The back-channel efforts by Pakistan might just work, as the country has excellent relations with the US and Gulf allies, as well as good relations with neighboring Iran. Pakistan is on a tight rope and is balancing its position between the adversaries.

Meanwhile,  a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran holds after weeks of conflict, with negotiations still far from producing a lasting agreement. The US paused its attacks on Iran last month but began a blockade of the country's ports. Talks aimed at ending the conflict have stalled with Iran refusing to end its nuclear program or relinquish its stockpile of enriched uranium. Iran, which denies it intends to build a nuclear weapon, has refused to end its nuclear program or relinquish its hidden stockpile of enriched uranium, to ?Trump's frustration.

More than three months after the US and Israel staged an attack on Iran, a US blockade and Tehran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz have created a deadlock, with neither side bending, economic pain deepening, and the risk of ?renewed war rising.

A growing concern among policymakers is not whether a deal is near, but how long tensions can persist before a miscalculation by Washington or Tehran triggers renewed conflict.

Meanwhile, Iran remained defiant of US and Israeli actions. The Iran ceasefire had mostly held, although drones had been launched towards Gulf countries by Iran’s allies.

The Iranian regime, which had faced ?a mass uprising at the start of the year, withstood the superpower onslaught with no sign of organized opposition. Donald Trump has again threatened Iran, saying the US may launch new attacks if Tehran continues to refuse the significant concessions he wants before a deal can be struck to end the Middle East war.

Meanwhile, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the threat of further conflict in the region have sent oil prices soaring, increasing inflation worldwide and threatening a global recession. A new round of fighting could send prices even higher and stock markets tumbling.

Both Iran and the US  want to avoid a new round of hostilities, but neither is willing to pay the political price of the concessions necessary to secure a peace agreement. White House officials are concerned that the conflict, which has little support among US voters, may derail Republican chances of keeping control of Congress at a time when worries about the cost of living are acute.

Iran faced a deepening economic crisis and potential damage to its oil infrastructure. Inflation was soaring, and there was a fear of an increase in popular discontent with the regime. However, the Iranian regime was intact and probably more hardline than it had ever been. Unexpectedly, the US stance was shifting daily.[10]

Meanwhile, Tehran was implementing a new multi-tiered system granting safe passage through the waterway.

The US and Iran continued to threaten each other, as before. Given the history of the Iran-US and Israel-US relations, mutual distrust between the US and Iran also continued, as before.

The Iranian military claimed that it had developed advanced weapons that had not yet been used in war. Iran faced no shortage of military or defensive capabilities and warned that it would not show restraint in any future confrontation.[11]

Meanwhile, White House spokesperson Wales made an outlandish statement that the US had met or surpassed all its military goals. “President Trump holds all the cards and wisely keeps all options on the table,” she said.

Trump campaigned for a second term, promising no unnecessary military interventions, but has brought the U.S. into an entanglement that could do lasting damage to his foreign policy record and credibility ?abroad.

The continuing standoff comes as he faces domestic pressure over high U.S. gasoline prices and low approval ratings after he embarked on the unpopular war ahead of November’s midterm elections. His Republican Party is struggling to keep control of Congress.

As a result, Trump faced a ?stark choice: to accept a potentially flawed deal as an off-ramp or escalate militarily and risk an even longer crisis. Among his options, if diplomacy collapses, would be to launch a round of sharp but limited strikes, frame it as a final victory, and move on.[12]

Meanwhile,  quiet diplomacy through Pakistan is ongoing even when Iran and the US each rejected the other's most recent proposals. The facilitation by Pakistan is backed by Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and China. The discussions between Iran and the US continued despite the latest violence. Progress, however, is still elusive. Iran says there has been little tangible movement, while the US continues to rely on military pressure to strengthen its negotiating position. But the conflict is becoming more complicated on several fronts. In Washington, the House of Representatives has tried to limit the Trump administration’s ability to continue military action without congressional approval. Complicating matters further is Lebanon. Iran has increasingly linked the fate of the ceasefire to developments there, warning that Israeli military operations against Hezbollah threaten the broader framework that ended the fighting. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz is no longer the only issue that can kill the ongoing diplomacy. Today, the greatest danger is not a deliberate decision by Washington or Tehran to return to war. It is that the ceasefire is no longer confined to their relationship alone. Its survival is increasingly tied to developments across the region, making it ever more fragile.” [13]

On  June 9, Israel again struck southern Lebanon, killing at least eight people, in an escalation that adds strain to efforts to broker a peace deal to end the wider Middle East ?war. On June 8, Israel and Iran said they would halt attacks on each other after an appeal by Trump to end their first direct exchanges of fire since April. Still, Tehran warned it would resume hostilities if Israel continued to attack its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel's refusal to end its campaign in Lebanon, as Iran demands, has hindered Trump's efforts to extend a tenuous ceasefire in the wider U.S.-Israeli war with Iran into a ?durable settlement.[14]

As a truce announced on April 8 holds in the Gulf war, oil prices, which had risen on the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran, fell on June 9, after the attacks were paused.

Meanwhile, Trump repeated himself and said he might have "an idea" for an Iran deal within a few days, without elaborating. He said he had warned the Israeli leader not to return to war with Iran: "I said, 'Bibi, you better be careful, ?or you will be on your own very soon.'" However, ?Israel's military chief, Zamir, said on June 9  ?that the attack Israel conducted against Iran the previous day was "in preparation for a much more significant and heavier blow.” “We are prepared to return and deliver another severe and deep strike against Iran," he said during a visit to training exercises in northern Israel.[15]

Tehran has long said any peace deal with the U.S. depends ?in part on an end to fighting in Lebanon, which Israel invaded in March in pursuit of Hezbollah fighters who had fired across the border. Israel has never halted its Lebanon campaign, which has killed thousands of people, saying the conflict should be treated separately from any U.S.-Iranian ceasefire. Hezbollah has also continued its attacks. At the same time, Tehran has continued to block most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which, before the war, carried a fifth ?of the world's ?crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Washington has imposed its own blockade of Iranian ports.[16]

US Energy Secretary Wright said on ?June 9 that ship traffic through Hormuz is rising "very meaningfully", but added it would take many months to get back to normal flows of energy once the war is over.

Trump had said any peace deal must ensure Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon. Iran's demands include ?the lifting of international sanctions, the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets, and recognition of its control of the strait.[17]

Surprisingly, on June 9, the US military attacked Qeshm Island and ports along the Iranian coast in the Strait of Hormuz after blaming Iran for the downing of a US Apache helicopter earlier. The US had struck 20 targets in Iran and intercepted all missiles and drones launched.

"I believe the response should be ?very strong, very powerful, and that's what this one is," Trump said. Following the strikes, Iran's Foreign Minister ?Araqchi said that the country would "leave no attack or threat unanswered." [18]

On June 10, the IRGC claimed attacks on US military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian ports and islands in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched a drone attack on the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and a base in Kuwait, as well as a long-range missile strike on an air base in Jordan. It said it attacked 21 US targets and destroyed four of them. The IRGC warned that its forces are still fully prepared to deliver a “crushing and decisive” response to any US military actions, and said Washington would bear full responsibility for the consequences of further escalation.[19]

As expected, Iran responded consistently and swiftly against US attacks. Obviously, it was showing clearly that any attack on Iran would be responded to at once, regardless of the scope. The new strikes have deepened doubts over a potential peace deal and further strained a fragile ceasefire. [20]

Unexpectedly, as of June 10, the earlier glimmer of hope had somehow vanished. Previously, regional tensions had escalated since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran in February. Tehran had retaliated with strikes targeting Israel as well as US allies in the Gulf, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A ceasefire took effect on April 8 through Pakistani mediation, but talks in Islamabad did not secure a lasting agreement. Trump later extended the truce indefinitely while keeping a blockade on vessels traveling to or from Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire has mostly been kept, despite occasional exchanges of fire. More than 2,000 people have been killed ?during the war that the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28, which has upended markets, spiked fuel costs, fueled global inflation fears, and convulsed the postwar Western alliance.

Most importantly, an unintended consequence of the war is the strengthening of Iranian leverage through the de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz. For Iran, flexing control over the Strait of Hormuz is a new deterrent. Iran’s government could emerge from the conflict with a blueprint to use it. Most importantly, the war was now escalating with no de-escalation in sight. This is a dangerous moment as the needed off-ramp is not available. The war will further engulf the region in destabilization and turmoil. The global economy will suffer further because of the oil and gas price shocks and disruptions of commerce. War shall lead to unintended consequences. Surely, the entire world will suffer as a result. We wish it were otherwise.

For Trump and his Republican Party, the implications of a continued impasse are grim. An unresolved conflict would ?mean the global economic fallout, including high US gasoline prices, would persist, putting further pressure on Trump, whose poll numbers were falling, and darkening Republican candidates' prospects ahead of November’s midterm congressional elections.

Given the recent developments,  the chances of a breakthrough are encouraging as back channels led by primarily Pakistan, and then Qatar, have been working tirelessly. There can be a peace deal between the US and Iran. History suggests so. Countries do not have permanent enemies, as they have only national interests to protect. In the Second World War, Germany and Japan were mortal enemies of the US, but now they are close friends. Circumstances can change, and even the US can become friends with Iran, as before the Islamic Republic was founded. It is possible that a peace deal between the US and Iran can happen. However, a peace deal between Israel and Iran is not possible. Israel is committing aggression in the region and is being duly opposed by Iran. The enmity between Israel and Iran is very deep. Even if there is a peace deal with the US, Israel will remain bent on the destruction of Iran. Eventually, the US can obviously stop it. Regional politics are changing. A strategic alliance of Russia-China-Iran has appeared. The nature of international politics dictates that China and Russia will help Iran against the US-Israel alliance. Meanwhile, Iran will do whatever it takes to survive. Iran will be victorious if it can survive the joint US-Israeli aggressions of the war.
The Islamic regime will remain intact and powerful as it has a sturdy foundation in the Iranian state and society. It has built a system that now sustains it. Benoit Faucon, in his article “The Web of Patronage That Keeps Iran’s Regime in Control’ published in the Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2026, explains that:[21]

Iran’s sprawling security apparatus is not solely held together by ideology. It is underpinned by a system of economic incentives that makes the regime’s collapse a direct threat to the livelihood of its acolytes. Since its founding, the Islamic Republic has built a tentacled ecosystem that controls more than half of the economy and acts as a powerful protection policy for the regime. It rewards loyalists with cash, careers, and other opportunities in exchange for crushing dissent and staying true to the regime, say academics and analysts who study the Iranian regime. 

External factors are also supportive of the continuation of the Iranian regime. International politics is becoming both intense and complicated now. If Iran falls, both China and Russia lose a valuable strategic partner. Therefore, both will continue to back Iran only because it is an adversary of the US, which happens to be their adversary as well. In other words, China and Russia will not let Iran collapse altogether. Russia is already helping Iran with intelligence sharing and upgrading drone technology. China is also supplying some weapons. If the war prolongs any further, both will ramp up their support to Iran, making sure it survives the US-Israeli strikes.

Meanwhile, the global public opinion is now definitely all over the world against war. Except for Israel and a minority of Republican supporters inside the US, the people demand an end to the war. Therefore, suffice it to state now that the war must end soon, by whatever means possible, as it is getting disastrous. Most importantly, the war is continuing with no de-escalation in sight. This is a dangerous moment as the needed off-ramp is not available. The war will further engulf the region in destabilization and turmoil. The global economy will suffer further because of the oil and gas price shocks and disruptions of commerce. War shall lead to unintended consequences. Surely, the entire world will suffer as a result. We wish it were otherwise.

The US has been ?struggling to end the war it began with Israel three months ago. Trump has repeatedly said during the conflict that a deal with ?Tehran was close, and similarly threatened heavy strikes on Iran if it did not reach an accord.[22]

The conflict has caused the worst-ever disruption to global energy supplies, blocking hundreds of tankers from leaving the Gulf while damaging energy and shipping facilities across the region. Meanwhile, Pakistan is helping to mediate talks between Washington and Tehran. [23]

War must end now for the sake of the region and even beyond. The way President Trump is conducting the diplomacy of war is not proper. He is not asking for professional help in the realm of diplomacy and instead depends on family and friends. This is leading to poor decision-making in the White House. At the end of the first month, President Trump is searching for a decent withdrawal plan and a face-saving for his beleaguered administration. The Trump administration underestimated the resolve of the Iranians to defend their country from US and Israeli aggression. Plus, the reliance on air strikes to defeat Iran was a mistake. However, a ground invasion by US and Israeli troops is not in the cards. What can happen is the occupation of Kharg Island by American marine forces and Israeli troops. Iran fears that Trump is just stalling for this eventuality and is not serious about negotiations with them.

All wars are politics by other means, as Clausewitz declared a long time ago, and this war is no exception. The problem for the US is that the Trump administration does not have a war strategy. Israel manipulated it to fight its war with Iran. There was no immediate and imminent threat to the USA before the war began a month ago. The US will have to pay a prohibitive cost for the blunder.

The Trump administration should know too well the problem of entering a quagmire when a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland occurs. After all, it is easier to win battles than to shape long-term political outcomes. Then, overreliance on military solutions while ignoring political and economic tools is not right. Most importantly, the US is now a victim of mission creep and unclear goals. Initial aims have shifted over time, which makes success hard to define and measure. The Trump administration also had intelligence failures and flawed assumptions. It underestimated Iran’s capacity to withstand and then retaliate against American and Israeli strikes. Finally, the cost of the war versus the possible outcome. The US and Israel did not expect the prohibitive costs to be incurred now as the war rages on. The Trump administration has failed to learn these from failed wars in Afghanistan (2001-2021) and Iraq (2003-2011). The war is now proving to be exorbitantly costly to the US and Israel. Surprisingly, Iran has suffered enormously in the old war but continues striking Israel and the Gulf region. Notwithstanding Iran’s dismal condition, it has built a strong nationalism fervor, and the “rallying around the flag” phenomenon has taken hold of the nation. The Islamic Republic is still intact and has even built a strong narrative of resilience to American and Israeli aggression. Therefore, Iran will continue fighting on. Undoubtedly, Iran had planned to conduct a prolonged asymmetrical war with the US-Israel and had prepared for it for decades. Iran’s strategy now is to impose a prolonged economic shock to force Trump to back off. Iran's military command said that the world should prepare for oil prices of $200 a barrel.

The US-Israel war of choice must end now for the sake of the region and even beyond. The way Trump is conducting the war’s diplomacy is very inappropriate, to say the least. He has no knowledge or knowledge of the sophistication needed in the realm of diplomacy. Moreover, he is not asking professionals in the State Department to conduct it and instead depends on family and friends. This is leading to poor decision-making in the White House. At the end of the first month, President Trump was searching for a decent withdrawal plan and a face-saving for his beleaguered administration. The Trump administration underestimated the resolve of the Iranians to defend their country from US and Israeli aggression. Plus, the reliance on air strikes to defeat Iran was a mistake. The law of diminishing returns suggests there is a limit to the number of strikes that can be made on the enemy. After all, how many campaigns can one conduct without a political backlash? The US and Israel cannot go on forever striking Iran without bearing the cost of the political backlash to their aggressions.

The Trump administration had earlier decided that a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland by US and Israeli troops was not a practical choice, as it was considered too dangerous for obvious reasons. The war could have turned into a prolonged ground battle. Later, the Trump administration had also discussed options to send ?ground forces to Iran's ?Kharg Island in the northern Persian Gulf, the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports.

The US has been struggling to end the war it began with Israel more than three months ago. Trump has repeatedly said during the conflict that a deal with Tehran was close, and similarly threatened heavy strikes on Iran if it did not reach an accord. The US should end the war, despite the aims of its partner, Israel. The Trump administration should now grasp the opportunity and make peace with Iran. There is no doubt that the Iranian regime is extremely repressive, cruel, and corrupt, but that does not mean that the US should replace it. Anyways, a replacement of the Iranian regime would require a massive ground invasion, which is not even contemplated by the Trump administration. Therefore, the idea of whether there is any should be discarded at once. After all, the US does business with other even more repressive regimes like India, Egypt, North Korea, China, and even Israel itself. It is not the responsibility of the US to intervene in other nations’ internal affairs and set things right, as it sees it. This would be a violation of international law and the UN charter, also. It is time for the US to make peace with Iran by recognizing the Islamic regime, no matter how much it is disliked by the American establishment. The American people overwhelmingly want peace, not war with Iran. Therefore, the Trump administration should have taken the difficult path of diplomacy with Iran to resolve the outstanding nuclear issue. Unfortunately, that did not happen as both the US and Israel had decided otherwise. Many American leaders could not come to understand the true nature of the political situation and the political compulsions of the Iranian nation. The Trump administration faced a choice, and it erred because it listened to only favored viewpoints. In hindsight, Trump should have ignored such hawkish views. But they were not, and that was the problem with the current Trump administration. Too many extremist views got accepted in their top decision-making circles. Obviously, that made for bad policy decisions like the mess in the war in Iran. The US president is under intense political pressure at home to reach an accord that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz - a key route for global supplies of oil and other commodities. Gasoline prices are high. Resultantly, Trump's approval rating had plummeted with congressional elections looming in November.

The war’s economic consequences would have far-reaching global ramifications. The international energy markets had been thrown into turmoil by the war. The global economy will take time to recover. The International Energy Agency has described this as “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” The IMF had described it as an “abrupt darkening” of the outlook for the global economy. Its latest forecast in the World Economic Outlook warns of slower growth and higher inflation. The IMF estimated global growth at only 3.1 per cent this year, with headline inflation projected to rise, in what it called a “sharp deviation” from the global disinflation trend of recent years. This could cause a global recession.[24] A recent UNDP report had warned that the war’s fallout could drive over 32 million people worldwide into poverty. The economic shocks involved energy, food, and weaker growth would hit the poorest countries the hardest and meant ‘development in reverse’ for them. Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the IMF, had claimed that even if a durable peace were achieved, the war would permanently “scar” the global economy and result in long-term damage to living standards. The security, economic, and diplomatic consequences of the Iran war would be felt for a long time to come. [25]

As expected, Asian stocks fell while oil prices surged on June 10.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.6%. Oil prices climbed about 1% in early trade, moving away from a seven-week low touched earlier in the session in the wake of fresh U.S. attacks. Brent futures rose 0.9% to $92.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ?WTI crude climbed 0.8% to $88.97.[26]

Meanwhile, the ripple effects from the war in Iran are threatening millions more of the most vulnerable people with crisis levels of hunger or worse, World Food Program (WFP) acting Executive Director Carl Skau said June 10. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up the cost of fuel exponentially, making the organization’s operations far more costly. The escalating fuel costs have also driven up the price of food around the world. And critically needed supplies of fertilizer from the Gulf to plant crops have been hindered by the blocked Strait. “In many places, we’re already taking from the hungry to give to the starving,” Skau said. Skau explained that in the world’s poorest countries, “when the price of food goes up 20-30%, well, they eat 20-30% less.”[27]

Earlier, in March, the humanitarian organization warned that 45 million more people would face acute hunger by July if the price of oil remained above $100 a barrel. Now, Skau said they have begun seeing the impact on the ground in places like Sri Lanka, Somalia, and Afghanistan. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen tomorrow, Skau said, the impact would continue to be felt longer-term. “It’s going to take time to recover,” he said. “We hope this conflict goes away, and that the strait opens tomorrow. But I think it’s clear that we need rich countries to step up and try to mitigate the hit on the most vulnerable from this crisis,” he said.[28]

Most importantly, the US does not really have a strategy to begin with and has continuously fluctuated in its aims. Finally, the US is now trying to break the resolve of the Iranian regime through sheer economic pressure applied by the institutionalization of a maritime blockade. The Trump administration is now convinced that the strangulation of Iran’s oil trade, which sustains regular life there, would trigger societal collapse. This will build unbearable pressure on the regime to bow to US demands to permanently renounce its nuclear program. There was a simple logic that applied to the strategy. Obviously, any nation will crumble if it cannot ensure access to the basic economic requirements to sustain itself. The Trump administration was convinced that rising inflation, immense job losses, and shortages in Iran were due to the blockade. Therefore, the ongoing blockade is an alternative to military operations that have failed to get the job done. It was also an answer to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. But this will not work as Iran is very resilient. Trump wrongfully n that the Iranian nation would revolt against the ruling Islamic regime, but it will not happen. Meanwhile, Trump’s approval ratings are at historic lows, and Republicans fear losing the House and facing an uphill fight to cling to the Senate in November.[29]

Given the record of his frequent flip-flops, Trump’s threats have lost all credibility. Iran and the US  are just stuck, and their stances are too far apart in terms of what they are willing to accept to arrive at a peace deal. And then there is the ego of Trump that causes skepticism in many people about any outcome of the war situation. Former State Department Iran official Eyre, who took part in past US-Iran talks, said an agreement may be ?out of reach. "These two sides will never reach a deal. Trump does not want to just win; he wants to humiliate Iran and be seen as having crushed Iran."[30]

Despite Trump’s erratic behavior and egotistic personality, there are larger issues at play here. No one wants the war to continue, as it is hurting everyone now. Since neither Iran nor the US wants to go back to war, and the pressure on both is so great, there is now a glimmer of hope that a sort of peace deal may be achieved. However, things cannot be rushed, as a proper peace deal between the US and  Iran needs more time and patience. There is no use in pretending that a fragile deal can anchor a new Middle East order.

Earlier, there was indeed progress in the path to peace in the Gulf region. Later, events dashed the prospects. But still, a peace deal between the US and Iran may eventually happen. The peace deal will happen not because of Trump but despite him, as the entire world minus Netanyahu and Trump supports it. More importantly, the world is changing as we speak. The US is a declining superpower largely because of the poor leadership of Trump. What is likely to happen next is a restructuring of regional politics. There will be more appreciation for Chinese global leadership and a real, more diminished view of American leadership. Another unintended consequence of the folly of the US-Israel war with Iran is the growth of a new Muslim alliance, which includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, and Turkey, and will be backed by China. This alliance is in the making, and the foundation stone is the very recent strategic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Pakistan has already stationed a sizeable military force in Saudi Arabia. Turkey and Pakistan are collaborating in the joint buildup of their air force capabilities. More is to come soon enough.

Given Trump’s inadequacies, the US power will decline in the entire region soon enough, at the cost of China’s rise in the same region as it enters to fill the strategic gaps in the wider region.

Finally, the US would be a loser by the time the war finally ends. This was an unnecessary war to begin with. There was no compulsion for the US to wage war against Iran, as the country did not pose any immediate discernible threat. Although Israel was convinced otherwise. It was a war of choice, and the US will have to pay a huge cost for the folly.

Dr. Sohail Mahmood is a political analyst in Chapel Hill, NC.

[1] Humeyra Pamuk and Asif Shahzad, Trump says there is no rush for Iran deal, US blockade stays”, Reuters, May 24, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-iran-deal-largely-negotiated-dispute-over-strait-reopening-2026-05-24/

[2] Ibid

[3] Ibid

[4] Humeyra Pamuk and Asif Shahzad, Trump says there is no rush for Iran deal, US blockade stays”, Reuters, May 24, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-iran-deal-largely-negotiated-dispute-over-strait-reopening-2026-05-24/ and US official says Washington, “Tehran reach preliminary deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz: reports”, Anadolu Agency/Reuters/Express Tribune, May 24, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2609806/pm-shehbaz-congratulates-trump-as-iran-ceasefire-agreement-nears-finalisation

[5] Ibid

[6] Kevin Liptak and Alayna Treene, “Trump still needs to sign off tentative deal between US and Iran”, CNN, May 29, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/05/29/world/live-news/iran-trump-war-newsJonathan Landay, Steve Holland and Yomna Ehab, “Iran, US reach deal to extend ceasefire, pending Trump's approval”, Reuters, May 28, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-trade-air-strikes-after-trump-dismisses-report-hormuz-deal-2026-05-28/, Alan Fisher, US-Iran skirmishes not enough to derail deal that could be ‘inching closer’, Aljazeera, May 29, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/29/iran-war-live-tehran-trump-yet-to-comment-on-60-day-truce-extension-plan, Jonathan Landay, Steve Holland and Yomna Ehab, “Iran, US reach deal to extend ceasefire, pending Trump's approval”, Reuters, May 28, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-trade-air-strikes-after-trump-dismisses-report-hormuz-deal-2026-05-28/

[7] Ibid

[8] Ibid

[9] Ibid

[10] Ibid

[11] Ibid

[12] Trump says Iran deal 'largely negotiated', dispute over strait reopening, Reuters, Asif Shahzad, Michael Martina and Ryan Patrick Jones, May 24, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-iran-deal-largely-negotiated-dispute-over-strait-reopening-2026-05-24/

[13] The editorial “Ceasefire in name” Dawn, June 8, 2026.

[14] Phil Stewart, Maya Gebeily and Tala Ramadan, “Israel kills eight in strike on Lebanon; US rescues helicopter crew from Hormuz,” Reuters, June 9, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-us-helicopter-pilots-who-went-down-strait-hormuz-are-fine-2026-06-09/

[15] Ibid

[16] Ibid

[17] Ibid

[18] Iran attacks Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan in retaliation for US strikes,  Al Jazeera, June 10, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/10/iran-strikes-bahrain-and-jordan-in-retaliation-for-us-attacks-in-hormuz and

 Neha Mustafi, Kay Johnson, and Christine Chen, “Iran war live: US strikes Iran after its helicopter was shot down”, Reuters, June 10, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-war-live-us-strikes-iran-after-its-helicopter-was-shot-down-2026-06-10/

[19] Ibid

[20] Ibid

[21] Benoit Faucon, “The Web of Patronage That Keeps Iran’s Regime in Control”,  Wall Street Journal, March 29, 2026, https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-revolutionary-guard-built-a-sophisticated-system-of-patronage-its-keeping-the-regime-alive-67d319e6?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_3

[22] Florence Tan and Humeyra Pamuk, “Tankers exit Hormuz as Trump, Vance talk up Iran deal prospects”, , Reuters, May 20, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tankers-exit-hormuz-trump-vance-talk-up-iran-deal-prospects-2026-05-20/

[23] “Tehran reviewing US response to its latest proposal: FM Spokesperson”, Express Tribune,  May 21, 2026, https://tribune.com.pk/story/2609295/tehran-reviewing-us-response-to-its-latest-proposal-fm-spokesperson and Tehran reviewing US response to its latest proposal, FM spokesperson says”, Al Jazeera, May 21, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/21/iran-war-live-tehran-says-no-surrender-to-us-diplomacy-wiser-than-war

[24] Maleeha Lodhi,  “The fallout”, Dawn, April 20, 2026, https://www.dawn.com/news/1993366

[25] Ibid

[26] Iran attacks Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan in retaliation for US strikes,  Al Jazeera, June 10, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/10/iran-strikes-bahrain-and-jordan-in-retaliation-for-us-attacks-in-hormuz

[27] Jennifer Hansler, “ Iran war ripple effects are increasing risks of acute hunger for millions, World Food Program chief says,” CNN, June 10, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/06/10/politics/iran-war-hunger-world-food-program

[28] Ibid

[29] Stephen Collinson,  “Trump is betting his blockade will defy history and break Iran”, CNN,  April 30, 2026, https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/30/politics/trump-iran-

[30] Ibid