By Fatma Twfiak

Abstract:

The paper demonstrate the development of warfare through seven generations, the characteristics and examples that distinguish each generation, and focus on cyber-attacks and its effect on international relations.      

The paper uses two approaches to examine the topic, the descriptive approach and the systematical analysis approach.       

Key words:

Warfare generations, English Civil War, First World War, Second World War, Syrian Civil War, cyber-attacks. 

1- Introduction:

Warfare has been developed through many stages from first generation warfare till it reached the seventh generation warfare, the most common type of warfare that world faces now is fifth generation warfare, especially cyberwar.

In the 1980s[1], the United States of America increased its dependence on computer networks thus, the world new focus was the foreign espionage[2].

During the cold war between the United States of America and the Soviet Union, President Ronald Regan the 40th president of the United States who began thinking about the cyber war[3], the idea occurred to president Regan in his attempt to overcome the Soviet Union nuclear weapon if the United States and the Soviet Union ever went to war[4].

 2- The approach:

To analysis the development of warfare to cyber war and it is effect on international relations, the paper will demonstrate it through the usage of the descriptive approach and the systematic analysis approach.

The descriptive approach in social science refers to the description of the phenomenon characteristics that is being studied, “descriptive studies may be characterized as simply the attempt to determine, describe or identify what is, while analytical research attempts to establish why it is that way or how it came to be”[5].

The systematic analysis approach by David Austen where the approach contains input, output, and feedback.

In this study, the input is the cyber-attacks that is caused by one country against another.

The output is the outcomes of those cyber-attacks on the country attacked.

And the feedback is the effect of the cyber war on international relations.

3- The development of warfare:

3.1- First generation warfare:

The first generation warfare refers to typically the Napoleonic wars and types of engagement with the enemies[6].

The first generation warfare was characterized by the tactics of line and columns to maximize the power of the army, smoothbore musket and conscripted armies[7].

First generation warfare phase began at 1648[8], the peace of Westphalia convention year, a convention which ended a 30 years of war that consists what we know now as Germany[9].

The Westphalia convection is also the beginning of usage of term Nation-State with it is conditions in the European affairs, replacing communal and tribal organizations as war-making entities[10].

On the first generation warfare the concept of operational art did not exist as a formal concept yet, however it was widely practiced by napoleon[11].   

There are a lot of examples for the first generation warfare:

Such as: English civil war, Anglo-Spanish Wars, Seven Years' War, American Revolutionary War, Napoleonic Wars, War of 1812 and Mexican War of Independence.

1- English Civil War:

The signs for the English Civil War started to emerge from the conflict between Charles the first and the parliament over the issue of the Irish rebellions[12].

In October 1642, the first battel in the English Civil War, the Battle of Edgehill took place[13].

The actual reason for the English Civil War was the Scotland and the Irish armies especially the Scotland army when Charles the first failed to defeat them[14].

The war was marked by two phases, the first phase ended after the battel of Naseby 1645[15].

While the second phase ended after the Battle of Preston in 1949, with Charles’ defeat[16].

2- Anglo-Spanish War:

The Anglo-Spanish War passed through several phases or wars.

1- Anglo-Spanish War between Britain and Spain, the war took place between 1585 till 1604[17].

After the English army managed to surround the Spanish army in the battel of Kinsale, the Spanish army agreed on terms of surrender[18].

The battle ended the Anglo-Spanish War, or as it is also known as the Anglo-Irish Nine Years War[19].

2- The Anglo-Spanish War took place between 1779 till 1783[20], the war was between Great Britain and Spain[21].

Spain had a sufficient gain from this conflict, for Spain it was about stopping Britain from it is constant attacks on it is land[22].

3- Napoleonic wars:

In May 1803[23], the Napoleonic wars began after 10 years of the British joining of the war against the revolution in France[24].

The Napoleonic war came as a series of battels or wars some examples of them are:

In December 1805[25], the battle of Austerlitz, it is also called the battel of the three emperors[26].

In October 1806[27], the battle of Jena-Auerstadt took place as a part of the Napoleonic wars in Saxons[28].

In June 1807[29], the Battle of Friedland took place as the aftermath of the Battle of Eylau, where Alexander, the Russian emperor was defeated and forced to accept the French terms in the treaty of Tilsit[30].         

3.2- Second generation warfare:

The idea of the second generation of the warfare first emerged after the industrial revolution which offered a various range of firepower options[31].

The second generation warfare was developed in the mid of the nineteenth century due to the emergence of steam technologies and the methods of mass production[32], as well as, a response for the wide range of the development of the ri?ed barrel, guns and indirect ?re[33].

The second generation warfare depended on the massive fire power and troops to occupy the enemies land as it was an essential condition to victory at that time[34].

The concept of operational art began to emerge in this phase which gave depth to the battlefield, together with the deep penetration, combination and “cauldron battles”[35].    

But at the tactical level it was a warfare based on fire and movement, thus the basic principle for the second generation warfare was attrition[36].

There are some examples for the second generation warfare

Such as: World War 1[37]and the American Civil War.

1- American Civil War:

The American Civil War lasted from 1861 till 1865[38], it was a war located in the United States of America between the north and the south[39].

Most of the people in the United States at that time believed that the war would be short just as a matter of battle or two until one of the two sides surrender[40].

The northern leaders purpose when the initiated this war was to suppress the insurrection of the south with their confederation goal[41].

 2- First World War:

The First World War was initiated in the aftermath of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Duchess Sophie on June 1914[42].

France, Russia, Germany, Britain and Austro- Hungarian leaders led their states into a war that lasted for several years, counter to what the United States leaders Imagined[43].

In August 1st 1914, Germany declared war on Russia[44].

In August 3rd 1914, Germany declared war on France[45].

In August 4th 1914 Germany declared war on Belgium, soon Britain joined the war by declaring that it will fight against Germany[46].        

In 1919, the international conference on the Treaty of Versailles took place, a peace treaty that ended World War1[47].

3.3- Third generation warfare:

The third generation warfare emerged due to the increase of the fire power[48], the concept was developed the Germans in 1918[49].

It was developed as the Germans were aware that one of the reasons for the defeat in World War 1 was because of their weak industrial base, thus they had to develop new tactics to protect themselves[50], and they managed to develop the concept of operational freedom[51].

The third generation tactics was maneuver in it is principle rather than the attrition principle of the second generation warfare[52].

The maneuver principle is based on qualitative maneuver over quantitative fire, it was also known as the blitzkrieg[53].

There are a lot of examples on the third generation warfare.

Such as: World War 2, Korean War, the war in Afghanistan and the Iraq war.

1- Second World War:

In September 1939[54], the Second World War began when Germany attacked Poland after blaming it for the tension and the outbreak of the war in the German propaganda[55].

Soon enough Britain and France joined the war to support Poland, although the two countries did not interfere directly in Poland[56].     

The war consisted of two wars that overlapped each other, the first battlefield was in Europe and North Africa and the second battlefield was in the far eastern, which began in December 1941[57]. 

The real overlap occurred when the Japanese forces attacked Pearl Harbor, this attack which provoked Germany leader Adolph Hitler to declare war on the United States of America[58].

 In 1945[59], the United States of America dropped two nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, which led japan to surrender[60].

The Second World War ended by the victory of the Allies and the defeat of the Axis, but the war costed the humanity the loss of more than fifty million human being[61].

2- Korean War:

In June 1950[62], North Korea initiated a war against South Korea, it was a matter of few days until North Korean soldiers arrived near Seoul “south Korea capital”[63].

In June 27th 1950[64], Seoul defense was about to collapse due to the evacuation panic[65].   

The Korean War was divided into three sections:

The war of South Korea in the summer of 1950[66].

The war of the North Korea in the fall and winter of 1950[67].

And the Chinese intervention that caused the agreement on demilitarization zone between the two parties[68].

In June 1953[69], the Korean War ended due to several reasons, first, Stalin death in March the same year[70], second, the Eisenhower administrations air war escalation in May and July 1953[71].     

3- Afghanistan war:

In October 7th 2001[72], the United States of America and the United Kingdom initiate a war on Afghanistan as a response to the aftermath of the September 11th attacks on the United State of America by the terrorist group Al-Qaeda[73].

The invasion occurred after the United States of America and the United Kingdom informed the United Nation security council of their right to use force for their defense under the Article 51[74].

In September 2006[75], Ronald Rumsfeld the United States secretary of defense announced the withdrawal of 3000 troops from Afghanistan, as the United States could not wage war in two countries at once[76].

However, in December 2006[77], the NATO announced an expansion of six thousand troops in the United Nation peacekeeping force in southern Afghanistan[78]. 

In 2014[79], the United States of America and the NATO international security force started the preparation of the troop’s withdrawal from Afghanistan[80].  

4- Iraq war:

There was an international fear due to some intelligence reports that reported that president Saddam Hussein is developing weapons of mass destruction in Iraq[81].

In 2002[82], the United Kingdom prime minister tony Blair announced that the United Kingdom will support and join the United States coalition against Iraq[83].

In March 19th 2003[84], the United States of America under President George W. Bush took the decision to attack Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq[85].

In March 20th 2003[86], the British and the American armies cross the border to Iraq from the Persian Gulf [87].

In 2010[88], the United States of America declared the end of the combat mission in Iraq.

During the second term of president Bush it was announced that the deadline for the complete United States withdrawal from Iraq in 2011[89].

In December 2011[90], the United States ended the war in Iraq officially after lowering the United States flags[91].

3.4- Fourth generation warfare:

The fourth generation warfare ideas started to have a great importance after the September 11th attacks on the United States, followed by the Bali, London, Madrid and Bombay attacks, which made the traditional use of the armed forces useless in preventing those attacks[92].

The concept of the fourth generation warfare was mentioned for the first time in the changing face of war: into the fourth generation article published in 1989 by William S. Lind, Nightingale, Gary I. Wilson, Jhon F. Schmitt and Joseph W. Sutton[93]. 

The fourth generation warfare came as indirect result of the rapid development in the social, economic, political and technological transformation caused by the globalization[94].  

The fourth generation has several names such as Insurgency, terrorism, the long war, guerrilla warfare, non-state actors and the global war against terrorism (GWAT)[95].

There are three main ideas that affected the emergence of the fourth generation warfare[96]:

The first idea is that the nation states lose it is monopoly in controlling war[97].

The second idea is that the new face of conflict is changing in to cultural conflict that is identified by religion and ideology[98].

The third idea concerns with the concept of multiculturalism, which is marked with the United States abandonment the western of Judeo-Christian values[99].

There is a specific agenda that govern the fourth generation warfare that includes the identification of the problems caused by contemporary security issues and the recommendation of the right path to overcome those issues[100].      

The fourth generation warfare changed the face of war from destroying the enemy in the battlefield to destroying it internally, which includes collapsing it is society from the cultural aspect not just as a physical entity[101]. 

In order to defeat the fourth generation of warfare (4GW) the fighting parties needs a combination of military, political, diplomatic, economic and technological aspects, unlike the traditional war that only required military and political aspects[102].   

There are some examples for the fourth generation warfare:

Such as: Syrian Civil War and the Libyan Civil War.

1- Syrian Civil War:

The Syrian Civil War started as a revolution by the people in 2011[103], to enhance the political, economic and social situation in the country as part of the Arab spring movement in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya[104].

Soon the revolution turned to a civil war when the free Syrian army rebel movement attempt to overthrow the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad from the office[105].

ISIS, Hizbollah, and Jabhat al-Nusra forces joined the war afterward which made the civil war last for several years without an expected ending[106]. 

In 2014[107], President Barak Obama ordered to lunch a United States air campaign against Isis in Syria as it was the biggest player in the Syrian civil war[108]. 

In 2019[109], President Trump claimed a complete defeat of ISIS in Syria and order a complete withdraw from northern Syria which was considered as a green light for president Erdogan to interfere in Syria[110].

2- Libyan Civil War:

In January 2011[111], Libyan started protesting against the Libyan president Muammar Gadhafi regime as a part of the Arab spring movement[112].

The protest were demanding an economic and social development, even so president Muammar Gadhafi tried to enhance the economic situation to meet the protest demands, the protest started to expand to a large and violent demonstrations in  Benghazi[113].

In February 17th 2011[114], the protesters organized a day of rage where the protesters violently break out in several major cities including the Libyan capital Tripoli[115].    

From March to October 2011[116], the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and some countries from the outside the coalition lunched an air campaign against the Libyan regime to help in the overthrown of President Muammar Gadhafi. 

In 2014[117], the violence escalated in Libya after the election dispute between           al-Sarraj and Haftar, where al-Sarraj took over the GNA in 2016[118], while Haftar lunched several military campaigns that helped him takeover a large territory, soon Isis joined the battlefield which led to the division of the country between two regimes[119].           

3.5- Fifth generation warfare:   

The fifth generation warfare emerged due to the state were struggling it maintain it is monopoly over the war and organization, as a result of the interference of the non-state actors[120].

It is also defined as a pseudo operation, which is known as “a terrorist act done by one group in such a manner that they are blamed for another action”[121].

The pseudo operation is defined as “describes the act of a software sending instructions or code to a hardware device that has not been compiled. Afterwards the hardware device translates the instructions into machine language”[122].

The fifth generation warfare are seen as a mixture between the barbarism and the guerrilla warfare[123].

The fifth generation warfare aircraft consists of four generic elements or approaches:

Networks, combat cloud, Multi-domain battle and the fusion warfare[124], the order of those generic elements or approaches reflect concatenation that formed the concept of fifth generation warfare[125].

1- Definition of cyber war:

Cyber war is a digital attacks for espionage that targets the enemies strategic and tactical structure, it aims to steal information that is valuable to the enemy such as data about the army, or even take down the server of the government site[126]. 

Cyber-attacks targets both military and civilian, which may cause a civilian deaths and causalities, a cyber-attack on a government system that may cause it to shut down may results traffic accidents[127].

Cyber-attacks is defined as  it is an information network system that consists of commands, controls, communications, computer intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, electronic and information warfare, campaign support and fire power[128].

2- History of cyber war:

In 1980s[129], the United States of America increased it is dependence on computer networks thus, the world new focus was the foreign espionage[130].      

It was Ronald Regan the United States of America president who first came with the idea of cyber-attacks and cyber war[131]. The idea came to President Ronald Regan in the middle of the cold war with Russia as he thought of it as the way to win the nuclear war against Russia if they ever went to such war[132].

In the 1990s, the concept of cyber war starts to expand including the attacks that might be triggered by the non-state actors[133].        

During president Bush’s administration cybersecurity theorist identified the dominant threat as the state actors rather than the non-state actors[134]. 

 After the September 11th 2001 attacks against the United States of America the dominant threat shifted back to non-state actors such as the terrorist organizations[135].

China is considered a pioneer in cyber space, attacks and cyber espionage.  

• State actor cyber-attacks:
• In 2004[136], several attacks was performed targeting the united states military  laboratories called the titan rain attacks[137], the attack was caused by a group located in southern china, the group managed to hack hundreds of the united states computers and steal sensitive information[138]. 

• In April 2015[139], the United States government accused the Chinese government of conducting a cyber-attack against the United States office of personal management and stealing over a 4 million of the United States citizens personal records[140].

• In 2018[141], a cyber-attacks was conduct on the international chemical weapons watchdog headquarter of the Netherlands, but it was stopped by the Netherlands intelligence[142], the Netherlands government accused Russia of the attack but they had no evidence to support their claims[143].
• Non-state actor cyber-attacks:
• In November 2014[144], an Iranian cyber espionage group was activated known as Advanced Persistent Threat 39 (APT39) or Chafer, the group worked on stealing information in the Middle East, North America and Europe telecommunication, travel and high tech companies[145].
• In August 2015[146], a Russian hacking group known as Cozy Bear attacked the United States department of defense email system[147].

• In January 2017[148], the Cozy Bear group attacked both ministry of defense and ministry of foreign affairs of the Norwegian government[149].

• The Cozy Bear group is also known as the Cozy Duke, the group was linked to a number of cyber-attacks against companies and governments and political groups in the United States, South Korea and Germany.

3- The impact of cyber-attacks on international relations:

• Cyber conflicts is described as a cool war, as it represent the dynamic changes in state interactions after the end of the cold war between Soviet Union and the United States of America[150].
• Cyber threats are considered as one of the most dangerous threats to the states -nowadays, President Barak Obama declared that cyber-attacks is the most obvious threat on the American national interest[151].
• In 2011[152], the United States of America announced that cyber-attacks will be consider as a traditional act of war that requires a military response[153], although till now the united states of America never responded on a cyber-attack by military forces.
• Cyber-attacks may be practiced by both official and non-official actors and levels, in the unofficial level the cyber war and attacks it allows non-state actors to participate in foreign actions and affairs[154].
• Cyber-attacks mainly targets government agencies, political organizations, companies and power grids, cyber-attacks can cause significant loses for the country under attack economically, politically and it can even cause death.
• Cyber-attacks are hard to track as they may be define the country that lunched the attack but they cannot prove whether this country’s government is involved or it is just an attack by an independent group.

Which made it hard for the country under attacks to held responsibility against the attackers.     

3.6- Sixth generation warfare:

Sixth generation warfare is about non-contact warfare through the usage of high accuracy gunnery, it is also about making the enemy do what you want them to do without making them realize that fact[155].

For example: operation desert storm[156].