By Tim Hopper

In 2025, the world is once again holding its breath. Donald Trump is shaking the foundations of the global order with bold and polarizing policies. His “America First” slogan and unpredictable approach have unleashed waves of instability across economics, diplomacy, and technology—undermining the previous order and altering the balance of power. Amid the storm, China is not only determined to remain above the fray, but also poised to seize this moment as a golden opportunity to redefine its global position vis-à-vis the United States. Is this the moment Beijing has been waiting for—a chance to emerge as the vanguard of a new world order amid the chaos triggered by Washington’s revisionist agenda?

Trump’s second-term policies have strained the cohesion of America’s long-standing alliances, causing structural rifts with its traditional partners. In Europe, his repeated doubts about NATO commitments and persistent demands for increased financial contributions from member states have eroded transatlantic trust. His Zigzag policy shifts have fostered deep unease among allies, pushing Europe toward a strategic autonomy. This has created space for China to step in, presenting itself as a stable alternative partner and advocate of multipolarism. Beijing, reshaping its image as a champion of multilateralism, is working to deepen diplomatic ties with European countries in the diplomatic vacuum left by the U.S. retrenchment.

In the Indo-Pacific as well, key U.S. allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia are grappling with uncertainties stemming from Trump’s policies. His financial and diplomatic pressures for greater defense burden-sharing, coupled with ambiguity surrounding U.S. security commitments to Taiwan and North Korea, have diminished trust in Washington. In response, these nations have begun strengthening their ties—with each other and with China. Aware of this opening, Beijing has seized the opportunity by offering economic and security partnerships. Reports of meetings among Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean representatives in March 2025—aimed at coordinating responses to U.S. trade policies—signal a growing willingness to adopt a multilateral approach and reduce dependence on Washington. These developments allow China to portray itself as a stabilizing force capable of filling the void left by America’s partial retreat.

Trump’s protectionist policies—particularly the sweeping tariffs imposed on U.S. trading partners—have disrupted global supply chains and provoked deep dissatisfaction among allies and rivals alike. According to a Reuters report from April 2025, the initial tariffs announced by Trump—54% on Chinese goods and 10–20% on other partners—wiped $6 trillion off global markets in less than a week. Though framed as measures to revive domestic industries and promote fair trade, the tariffs have triggered severe consequences for global commerce.

Countries affected by U.S. tariffs—including Canada, the European Union, and Southeast Asian nations—are now seeking to establish alternative supply chains to mitigate the damage.

According to a Chatham House assessment, this trend may sideline the U.S.—which accounts for only 15% of global trade—and elevate China as the focal point of regional and global economic realignment. The aforementioned March 2025 talks among China, Japan, and South Korea exemplify Beijing’s strategic ability to turn economic threats into opportunities. These efforts, combined with the strengthening of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), solidify China’s status as a regional economic hub and significantly diminish U.S. influence. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), RCEP now covers nearly 30% of global GDP, with China—its largest economy—playing a pivotal leadership role.

Ironically, the escalating U.S.-China trade war has, in some respects, bolstered China’s economic standing. While tariffs and trade restrictions have prompted multinational firms to leave China, many have relocated to Vietnam and India—countries with strong trade ties to Beijing. Even in a worst-case scenario, a total halt in China-U.S. trade would affect only 2.5% of China’s GDP, showcasing the country’s economic resilience. This dynamic is accelerating regional economic integration around China and portraying Beijing as a robust economic power capable of withstanding U.S. protectionism.

The Trump administration’s restrictive tech policies, aimed at curbing China’s access to critical technologies—particularly semiconductors and AI—have presented both challenges and strategic opportunities for Beijing. U.S. export controls may slow China’s tech growth in the short term, but they have also sparked a powerful drive for technological self-reliance. According to a RAND Corporation report from March 2025, China has doubled its investments in key technologies such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence in response to U.S. restrictions, and is projected to significantly close the tech gap with the West by 2030. Therefore, it is expected that Trump’s policies—particularly in the realm of technology—will push China toward greater technological self-sufficiency and position Beijing as a leading player in the standardization of global technologies. These efforts, combined with China’s attempts to consolidate its own technological standards through initiatives like the Belt and Road, are strengthening Beijing’s tech influence in emerging economies and accelerating the fragmentation of the global tech ecosystem into two distinct blocs: one led by the West and the other centered around China.

Trump’s isolationist diplomatic approach—marked by reduced U.S. engagement in institutions such as the World Trade Organization and climate accords—has created leadership vacuums that China is swiftly moving to fill. Washington’s retreat from global institutions and fraying alliances offer Beijing a rare opportunity to assert global leadership. By presenting itself as a defender of multilateralism and economic stability, China is winning over developing nations and even some of Washington’s traditional allies. This shift is clearly visible in international organizations, where China promotes governance models based on national sovereignty and economic development priorities. According to the Brookings Institution, by January 2025, China had increased its presence in key UN-affiliated bodies by 20% since 2020.

Still, capitalizing on these unprecedented opportunities is not without risk. Potentially aggressive Chinese actions in sensitive geopolitical regions—such as the South China Sea or Taiwan—could provoke powerful military coalitions against Beijing, especially involving Japan, Australia, and India. While Trump’s trade policies may drive U.S. allies away from Washington, they could also trigger coordinated regional pushback against China. Furthermore, continued trade wars and global economic instability could threaten China’s export-driven economy. Nevertheless, China’s past experiences—particularly its strategic gains following the 2008 financial crisis—demonstrate its capacity to turn global upheavals into strategic advantages. In the aftermath of that crisis, China decisively expanded its influence in areas like the South China Sea, and today it appears equally prepared to exploit U.S. vulnerabilities to its advantage.

Trump’s second presidency—by undermining traditional U.S. alliances, facilitating regional economic integration centered on China, and accelerating Beijing’s technological self-sufficiency and diplomatic influence—has laid the groundwork for an unprecedented redefinition of China’s global role. America’s withdrawal from global agreements such as the Paris Accord and the WTO has created an opening for China to claim global leadership. However, Beijing’s success in this new era will depend on its ability to navigate diplomatic relations wisely and avoid provoking united backlash. China’s strategic patience and pragmatic diplomacy—as evidenced in its outreach to Japan and South Korea and its growing role in international institutions—have clearly positioned it to reshape the world order in its favor.

Timothy Hopper is an international relations graduate of American University. As a freelance foreign policy writer, is work has been featured on platforms such as intpolicydigest, geopoliticalmonitor and others.