Introduction

For decades, the Middle East was treated as the world’s permanent crisis zone. It was a place where wars never ended and governments never stabilized. Yet ironically, the Middle East is now doing what Europe failed to do. It is ending conflicts, rebuilding economies, and expanding its influence far beyond its borders.

Across the region, countries with prior conflicts are now partnering, wars are winding down, and investment funds are reshaping global markets. And even more ironic, countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey are now shaping events across the Middle East, Africa, and even Ukraine.

The age of total wars recedes

Perhaps one of the most prominent features that was tied to the Middle East for decades was wars. Luckily, that era is coming to an end.

Lasted for over two years, with immense casualties, deaths, and destruction, the Gaza war has finally wound down. On October 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a U.S.-brokered deal blessed by Arab states and Turkey, involving the release of the remaining 20 living Israeli hostages in exchange for over 1,900 Palestinian prisoners (AP, 2025). Israel began withdrawing troops from parts of Gaza, and Trump declared the war's end and announced the start of a multi-phase peace plan including reconstruction and a multinational force deployment (NPR, 2025). Although it is early to judge as violations still persist, the deal itself is considered a breakthrough.

Not very far, Syria, that witnessed 14 years’ war after the Assad regime caused the civil revolution to turn into armed resistance, is also gradually calming down. On December 8, 2024, after a 10-day offensive by opposition forces led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Assad regime fell (Al Jazeera, 2024). After being a hotspot of tension and instability for years, Syria is seeing improvements that will eventually put it back on the regional scene, after years of isolation due to the Ba'athist regime policies.

In Lebanon, Israel has significantly weakened Hezbollah capabilities over the last two years through a series of targeted assassinations, cyber operations, and airstrikes. One of the most effective operations was the September 2024 exploding pagers and walkie-talkies campaign, which killed or injured over 3,000 operatives, followed by the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah and successor Hashem Safieddine (Al Jazeera, 2025). Israel also managed through airstrikes to destroy great part of Hezbollah's rocket arsenal (NYT, 2024). For the first time in decades, Hezbollah lost a great part of its influence and dominance in Lebanon.

In short, the Middle East of 2025 looks nothing like the 2015 Middle East.

Economic Boom

Economically, the region has never been better. Reliance on non-oil sectors is rising, tourism is booming, and sovereign wealth funds are reshaping global finance.

Saudi Arabia now has a non-oil GDP surpassing 50% with tourism and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) at unprecedented levels (IMF, 2025). Similarly, Qatar is investing heavily in sports projects like the 2022 World Cup and maintaining massive energy resources. On the other hand, Turkey’s GDP is on the rise with an average 5.3% annual growth (2014–2023). In addition, inflation that massively affected Turkish economy in recent years is down from 85.5% (2022) to 33% (2025) (Trading Economics, 2025).

In addition, the Gulf States host some of the world's largest sovereign wealth funds. These funds have shifted from passive global investments to active drivers of economic diversification. They are funding tech, renewables, and infrastructure under visions like Saudi Vision 2030.

Middle Eastern countries are having growing ties with China and the U.S. simultaneously, and they are gradually becoming central global players.

Diplomatic Presence

In recent years, the Middle East is replacing Europe in diplomacy and mediation.

Qatar, for instance, was present diplomatically across continents and hosted multiple mediations. In Asia, Qatar leveraged its Hamas ties to play key role in the negotiations between Hamas and Israel that eventually led to a ceasefire. In addition, it hosted the 2020 Taliban-Afghan peace talks in Doha (NYT, 2020) in an effort to end decades of conflict and facilitated the release of British couple Peter and Barbara Reynolds from Taliban detention this year after months of negotiations (NYT, 2025). In Africa, Qatar mediated in the DRC-Rwanda peace treaty (Wikipedia, 2025) and played key role in the restoring of Kenya-Somalia ties back in 2022 (Africanews, 2021). Ironically, Qatar was present in Europe as well. Through its mediation efforts, Qatar successfully reunited over 100 children separated by the Ukraine-Russia conflict with their families since 2024 (Qatar MoFA, 2025).

Saudi Arabia, similarly, was strongly present diplomatically. It played key role in the ceasefire negotiations to end the conflict in Gaza and pledged billions of dollars for the reconstruction of the destroyed strip (Atlantic Council, 2025). In addition, Saudi Arabia has been leading Syria's reintegration into the international community over the past year, advocating for sanctions relief, which President Trump granted in May 2025 during a Riyadh summit at Riyadh's urging (ABC News, 2025). Saudi Arabia also played a role in the Ukraine war. They hosted Zelenskyy at the Arab League Summit in 2023 (NPR, 2023). In addition, they gave Ukraine around $400M in aid, including a $300M oil grant (AGBI, 2023).

Turkey also has been immensely active in the past decade regionally and globally. It was involved in various conflicts in the region. Turkey played a pivotal role in the Libyan war in 2019 and its military intervention saved Tripoli from defeat against Khalifa Haftar’s forces backed by Egypt, Russia, and the UAE (Wikipedia, 2025). Turkey also intervened militarily for Azerbaijan in their war against the self-declared breakaway state of Artsakh (GMF, 2020). Turkey played a key role in the Russia-Ukraine war by supplying Kyiv with drones and mediated the Russia-Ukraine talks and Grain Deal in 2022 (Al Jazeera, 2022). Nowadays, Turkey maintains significant military bases abroad in over 12 countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe (Center for Applied Turkey Studies, 2021).

Interestingly, this growing diplomatic presence of Middle Eastern countries is not limited to Africa or Asia only, but it reaches Ukraine as well, which is normally a European territory.

Trump’s Blessings

Since his 2025 inauguration, President Trump has repeatedly praised these countries and their leaders during diplomatic engagements. This flattery has been consistent across speeches, social media, and joint statements, emphasizing their "toughness," "smart leadership," and contributions to U.S. interests like Gaza ceasefires and anti-terrorism.

In his May tour, Trump visited Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE. Later this year, he met with the Qatari Emir when he was traveling to Malaysia and stopped in U.S. base at Qatar for refueling. In the same May tour, he met with Syrian President Ahmed Al Sharaa, describing him as “a tough and attractive guy” (Guardian, 2025). In November, Ahmed Al Sharaa visited the White House as the first Syrian President to do so (NPR, 2025). "Syria under Sharaa is turning a corner.. great potential for peace and deals”, Trump said (Reuters, 2025). Saudi crown prince Mohammed Bin Salman also visited the White House in November, pledging +$1 Trillion in investments in the U.S. and securing F-35 fighter jets deal (White House, 2025).

Is Trump seeing the potential or he is forming an alliance?

Trump is a businessman. He sees potential. The Middle East has long been regarded by analysts as having a tremendous potential if it was not for the continuous chaos and wars. Perhaps Trump believes that ending wars in the Middle East could potentially transform the region completely.

Other analysts have a different view. Syrian writer and researcher Ali Tami was the first to signal these shifts in U.S. policies, tying it to the formation of a Sunni Alliance. Ali Tami believes that Trump's strategy signals a deliberate U.S. pivot to forge a broad Sunni alliance (Qatar, Saudi, Turkey, Egypt, and post-Assad Syria) to counter China. Trump’s vision, as per his claim, consists of facing China's "Belt and Road" inroads through rallying Sunnis into a U.S.-anchored bloc for tech/security/energy dominance.

Perhaps Trump no longer sees Europe as a reliable partner, or at least not reliable to counter China. What is certain is that the U.S. is tired of carrying Europe militarily and wants partners who contribute in return.

Conclusion

Whether Donald Trump is simply recognizing potential or actively shaping a new strategic bloc, two things are now unmistakably clear. First, the Middle East’s trajectory is upward. The region once written off as volatile and dependent is now positioning itself as a future centre of global politics. Perhaps the Middle East is even fulfilling what Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman predicted when he said the Middle East would become “the new Europe.” Second, Europe’s decline is no longer theoretical. It is visible, measurable, and in many arenas already.

Nadhem Mahmoudi is a translator and interpreter with an MA in Translation and Interpreting, specializing in the linguistic impact of non-native English accents.