Artificial Intelligence (AI), an "enabling technology," has dramatically altered the power dynamic between the state and non-state actors (NSAs). AI is a "double-edged sword" for Pakistan, a middle power operating within a dangerous nuclear dyad with various regional rivalries. On one hand, it helps the state forecast its foreign policy and become more precise in defense. However, on the other hand, the democratization of technology has helped NSAs develop sophisticated means of conducting information warfare, kinetic action, and even cyber attacks against the Pakistani state. This paper employs SRR and Constructivism to analyze how AI helps NSAs challenge the dominant narrative in Pakistan, necessitating a "restraint by architecture" foreign policy in Pakistan.

Introduction: The Democratisation of Harm                                                AI is not only a specialized weapon, but a multipurpose power like the electric motor or the internal combustion engine that "cognitizes" both the hardware and software of machines.[1] Historically speaking, surveillance and the capacity to deliver precise strikes were exclusively available to resource-rich nations. Yet the emergence of cheap and readily available open-source AI algorithms such as Stable Diffusion for synthetic media and Llama for strategic analysis has led to the "democratization of harm."[2] In Pakistan's case, this trend is even more pronounced. The country's digital gap, with 64.2% internet access rate[3] along with rampant illiteracy in rural areas, makes its citizens particularly susceptible to manipulation using AI.

Theoretical Approach: Constructivism and Systemic Restraint Realism

In analyzing the impact of AI-powered NSAs on Pakistan’s foreign policy, this paper uses the following two approaches:

1. Constructivism: The formation of foreign policy is not solely a matter of material power; rather, it is a “social process.” AI becomes relevant to our discussion because it has the potential to change the meanings created during social processes and affect the state’s perception of its national interests.[4] Through deepfakes and data analytics, NSAs can influence which foreign policy measures become too risky for Pakistan.
2. Systems Restrained Realism (SRR): A derivative of defensive realism for the machine era, SRR argues that within nuclear-armed zones such as South Asia, the danger of escalation originates from "algorithmic unpredictability." While great powers can afford to "take the hits" in the name of technological progress, middle powers such as Pakistan will be subjected to international criticism. Hence, Pakistan has opted for a policy of "restraint by architecture," deliberately designing "latency" (intentional delay) as well as human control mechanisms to avert machine-led nuclear disaster.[5]

Mechanisms of NSA Empowerment

AI acts as a force multiplier for NSAs in Pakistan across three primary domains:

• Kinetic Asymmetry: Terrorist groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) make use of AI to identify targets, optimize routes for drones, and gather real-time intelligence through satellite images. Similar to global dynamics, terrorist groups use cheap quadcopters, nicknamed "killer bees," to overcome conventional border security measures while undermining the morale of state forces.[6]
• Information Warfare (5GW): Using generative AI, NSAs can easily generate convincing misinformation. In 2026, misinformation campaigns coordinated by AI that were associated with Afghan groups inundated Pashtun channels with information that presented Pakistan as an oppressor[7], forcing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) to dedicate a great deal of effort toward managing the narrative. Misleading deepfakes of political figures admitting to policy decisions may sabotage negotiations.
• Cyber Operations: Hackers from ethnic separatist organizations of Balochistan and others use malware aided by artificial intelligence to scan for vulnerabilities in the state’s system infrastructure.[8] Notable examples include the breach in the Election Commission in 2023 and several attempts at infiltrating the Federal Board of Revenue.[9]

Impact on Foreign Policy Spheres

The empowerment of NSAs through AI directly reshapes Pakistan's strategic landscape:

1. The Afghan Policy and Counter-terrorism: Coordination by TTP using AI for conducting cross-border attacks leads to diplomatic escalation between Islamabad and Kabul.[10] Disinformation campaigns create bottom-up pressure on government officials at home, which limits the country's diplomatic options.
2. The India-Pakistan Rivalry: The Baluch and Kashmiri militant groups use artificial intelligence tools to detect “media weak points” in the West. They exploit their grievances through international media platforms on occasions such as SCO summits. This puts pressure on Pakistan's "all-weather friendship" with China as the latter calls for regional stability in its own interest.[11]
3. Diaspora and Economic Diplomacy: The Overseas Pakistani communities in the UK and US use AI-powered predictive analytics to estimate their influence and advocate before the US Congress for IMF funding.[12] This results in what is called “dual influence,” which refers to competition among pro-state and anti-corruption groups in shaping Pakistan’s economy abroad.

State Responses and Governance Gaps                                                These challenges have been addressed by Pakistan through the creation of the National Center of AI (NCAI)[13] and incorporation of AI in MoFA’s processes by 2025.[14] Yet, state responses remain constrained by “institutional fragmentation.” While civilian institutions are responsible for cyber-security, they generally do not have the technical capacity enjoyed by military-related institutions. This "disconnect between competence" leaves the government vulnerable to a crisis-driven approach characterized by fragmented containment without consolidated institutional learning. Moreover, rapid turnover within leadership has rendered advanced technological infrastructure, such as the “flagship” servers purchased under the "Digital Pakistan" initiative, "rotting in the storehouses" because of the unavailability of skilled staff.[15]

Conclusion: Toward a Unified National Strategy

This "double-edged sword" phenomenon has thus created a new platform for non-state actors to challenge the sovereignty of states on the diplomatic table. In order to retain stability, Pakistan has to stop relying on its knee-jerk reaction in managing the crisis and establish a holistic cyber security policy that acknowledges the double use of its technological infrastructure. The country needs "techno-diplomacy" training for diplomats, cooperation between the private and public sector in adopting AI startups that follow strict ethical standards, and ongoing efforts towards advocating AI arms control at global platforms such as the UN and OIC. Whether Pakistan can be a stabilizing influence in South Asia depends less on how fast Pakistan becomes automated and more on whether it can keep control of the force in human hands.

Amara Malik is an independent researcher. Her area of interest includes South Asian Politics and CT.

[1] By "cognitizing" hardware and software, it enables systems across every industry to perceive, learn, decide, and adapt.

[2] Sarah Kreps, “Democratizing Harm: Artificial Intelligence in the Hands of Nonstate Actors,” Brookings, November 2021, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/democratizing-harm-artificial-intelligence-in-the-hands-of-non-state-actors/.

[3] Kalbe Ali, “ECONOMIC SURVEY 2025-26: Digital Economy Grows as IT Sector Posts Gains,” Dawn, June 12, 2026, https://www.dawn.com/news/2007210.

[4] Y.E. Rachmand, “Social Constructivism Theory,” ORCID, 2025, https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6414-3252.

[5] Iskandar, Monica Marchelina, Hamdan Nafiatur Rasyida, and Hafid Adim Pradana. "Artificial Intelligence in International Society and The Reappreasal of Realism, Rationalism, and Revolutionism." Journal of Transformative Governance and Social Justice 4, no. 1 (2026): 17-27.

[6] Rueben Dass, “Nascent Adoption: Emerging Tech Trends by Terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan - GNET,” GNET, June 18, 2025, https://gnet-research.org/2025/06/18/nascent-adoption-emerging-tech-trends-by-terrorists-in-afghanistan-and-pakistan/.

[7] “Coordinated Disinformation Network Targeting Pakistan Exposed,” Digital Rights Foundation, 2016, https://digitalrightsfoundation.pk/coordinated-disinformation-network-targeting-pakistan-exposed/.

[8] Imtiaz Baloch, “Operation Herof-2: BLA Propaganda, Female Fighters, and Virality on TikTok - GNET,” GNET, April 2026, https://gnet-research.org/2026/04/01/operation-herof-2-bla-propaganda-female-fighters-and-virality-on-tiktok/.

[9] Iftikhar A Khan, “ECP Issues Advisory after Suspected Ransomware Attack,” Dawn, July 8, 2023, https://www.dawn.com/news/1763614.

[10] Alexander Palmer and Alexander Margolis, “Why Did Pakistan Announce ‘Open War’ against the Taliban?,” Csis.org, 2026, https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-did-pakistan-announce-open-war-against-taliban.

[11] “#IFJBlog: AI, Deepfakes, and the Fog of War - Disinformation in the 2025 India-Pakistan Conflict / IFJ,” Ifj.org, June 25, 2025, https://www.ifj.org/media-centre/blog/detail/category/ai/article/ifjblog-ai-deepfakes-and-the-fog-of-war-disinformation-in-the-2025-india-pakistan-conflict.

[12] “The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap,” IMF, April 11, 2025, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2025/04/11/The-Global-Impact-of-AI-Mind-the-Gap-566129.

[13] “NCAI – National Center of Artificial Intelligence,” National Centre of AI, n.d., https://ncai.pk/.

[14] Wajid Islam, “Will AI Transform Pakistan? Knowledge Brief,” November 2025, https://file.pide.org.pk/pdfpideresearch/kb-136-will-ai-transform-pakistan-assessing-the-2025-national-policy.pdf.

[15] Sajjad Ahmed, Ahmad Yaakub, and Asma Javed, “Artificial Intelligence in Pakistan’s Cyberspace: Governance Gaps, Dual-Use Dilemmas, and Strategic Vulnerabilities,” Obrana a Strategie 2 (2025), https://doi.org/10.3849/1802-7199.25.2025.02.3-23.