During his ten years as Prime Minister Tony Blair led the British public to believe that there was a unique closeness in the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom.

He told the British public that aligning closely with the United States gave Britain greater sway in the international arena.

Questions about the credibility of these claims have been raised many times, particularly since Britain followed the United States into war with Iraq. They were thrown into further doubt when a U.S. state department official described a relationship that was entirely one-sided and undermined still further when in February of this year it was revealed that in 2002 the United States used the port of Diego Garcia for rendition flights without the knowledge of the UK Government.

This kind of disregard for UK sovereignty has come to represent for many British people the lack of reciprocity in Anglo-American relations and has considerably blackened the perception of the United States in the mind of the British public.

A YouGov poll from May this year gave some idea of the strength of feeling when it found that 35 per cent of British people agreed that the US was now a “force for evil” in the world with only 33 per cent believing the US was a force for good.

For the relationship to be recovered, at least in the mind of the British public, it will need to bring a considerable change in the balance of the relationship. In the Democratic candidate Barack Obama there seems to be someone who has the potential to win over the British people if, that is, he wants to.

The same YouGov poll from May in which British people showed their disdain for US foreign policy they indicated vastly more support for Mr Obama than for his Republican rival John McCain.

In addition, Barack Obama has outwardly called for a rebalancing of the relationship. In May he reportedly told an audience of American ex-pats based in Britain that there was "a chance to recalibrate the relationship and for the United Kingdom to work with America as a full partner."

A willing British public may not be enough, however. First and foremost any new American administration is likely to focus on domestic policy. With a wobbling economy in the light of the credit crunch and a crisis in America’s banking system alongside rising oil and food prices, it is likely that Mr Obama will concentrate on problems at home rather than abroad.

Thus, foreign policy in general and Anglo-American relations may have to take a back seat.

Furthermore, there have been reports that the UK Government have been held at arms length by the Obama campaign team since Gordon Brown’s reluctance to hold a high profile meeting last summer at a time when it looked like Hillary Clinton was going to be the Democratic presidential candidate. Thus the status of the personal relationship between the Presidential hopeful and the Prime Minister is seemingly in the balance.

More importantly, there are some clear differences in the foreign policy proposed by Barack Obama and those of the UK Government (and the opposition Conservative party), most notably over Iraq.

Making a speech at the international trade centre in Washington, Mr Obama stated his intention to end the war in Iraq and has committed to creating a timetable for withdrawal once in office. By contrast, Gordon Brown has repeatedly stressed his opposition to an “artificial timetable“.

As a result many were watching to see what would happen when Mr Obama made his foreign tour last week.

So when Mr Obama gave his major speech in Germany and came off as decidedly "chummy" in a press conference with President Sarkozy this led some commentators to speculate that Mr Obama was seeking to distance himself from the United Kingdom in favour of alliances in Berlin and Paris. Governments who, like Mr Obama, were opposed to the war in Iraq from the start.

Writing on the opinion pages of the Daily Telegraph, for example, Nile Gardiner of the Margaret Thatcher Centre for Freedom suggested that the approach of Mr Obama could be seen as ushering in a “seismic shift in the transatlantic alliance”.

He argued that that decision to make Germany and France the ““centrepiece” of his European tour represented a deliberate shift in the focus of US foreign policy.

However, before getting carried away with the idea that Anglo-American relations as we know them are over it is important to consult some other sources.

Professor John Dumbrell of Durham University, an expert on Anglo-American relations, dismisses the idea that conclusions can be drawn based on this trip alone. He argues instead that the existing military, cultural and intelligence ties are what define the relationship, not these media events that are largely for the benefit of the American public.

In fact, he suggests that these kinds of worries simply detract from what should be the goal for the UK; the need to seek a rebalancing of the relationship.

Thus there are more intricate diplomatic ties between the UK and US at a level below what is presented to us by the media.

Professor Dumbrell is not the only academic inclined to ignore these short term indicators in favour of a wider view of the Anglo-American relationship. Professor John Baylis Pro-Vice Chancellor at Swansea University, who has also written widely on the special relationship, says that it is too early to make an assessment of how the Special relationship would go under an Obama Presidency.

He stresses that there are three key elements to the special relationship, a close nuclear and intelligence relationship, a willingness of Britain to stand alongside the US in international crises and the personal ties between the two leaders.

Professor Baylis argues that the first and second are likely to continue under Obama. He emphasises that differences over Iraq will be overcome with Britain continuing to support the U.S. in Afghanistan. This is something, of course, that the likes of Germany and France have failed to do in spite of their NATO commitments.

Finally, Prof Baylis says that the personal ties between the leaders remain uncertain, but he notes that “history suggests that any future British leader is likely to give priority to developing close ties with Obama””.

Thus concerns that the Anglo-American relations are in for a tough time with an Obama administration seem premature. It is at the very least too early to make a definite assessment of the way Special Relationship would go and of course should John McCain win the election in November these questions will never be answered.

What is more important than speculation over whether Mr Obama will favour Germany or France over the UK is ensuring that the relationship does not return to the doldrums it has reached during the current Bush Administration.

As both Professor Dumbrell and Barack Obama have argued the relationship must be rebalanced.


Leigh Marshall is an assistant editor with International Affairs Forum

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