Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD)

QUAD is multilateral strategic arrangement between four countries. These four countries comprise of India, Australia, Japan, and the USA. Japan is accredited as the founder of QUAD. Back in 2007, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed a multilateral arrangement which focuses on open, free, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

In the recent years, China has been aggressively modernizing itself. It underwent a drastic military modernization. This Chinese military modernization serves as a mean to claim its territory, particularly Taiwan and associated lands. It has disturbed the regional stability. Hence, QUAD was the brainchild of Japan to stabilize the region. QUAD focuses on security cooperation and addressing regional challenges.

Objectives of QUAD

QUAD has three significant objectives:

• Security Cooperation: Guarding the security interests of member states.
• Economic Cooperation: Increasing economic collaboration for a prosperous region.
• Maritime Security: Ensuring freedom of navigation at sea.

Reasons behind Japanese Brainchild: QUAD

One of the major reasons why Japan came up with the idea of QUAD was the growing Chinese influence in Indo-Pacific. China started to maintain an assertive stance on minor or major border disputes especially in East China and South China sea, while ensuring the progress of its broader military expansion.

The second reason of the introduction of QUAD by Japan was its own economic and technological ambitions. Japan is of one the most technologically advanced countries around the globe. According to the statistics, Huawei and ZTE are currently dominating the telecommunication market globally. Both are Chinese companies. Japan intends to break the Chinese telecommunication monopoly by fostering collaboration among QUAD countries to boost its own domestic telecommunication industry. Hence, it will not be wrong to quote that QUAD serves as a potential forum for Japan to uplift its domestic technological industry.

In 2016, Japan introduced the FOIP policy in response to the already emerged Chinese dominance. FOIP is an acronym for Free and Open Indo-Pacific. QUAD supports the FOIP policy via its three pillars. These three pillars represent Rule of Law, Economic Prosperity, and Peace & Stability. Aligning QUAD with the vision of FOIP, Japan is focused on intensifying its diplomatic ties with Australia, US, and India. These intense relations will cooperate in the domains of infrastructure development, humanitarian assistance, and maritime security.

Potential Military Alliance of QUAD

There is an on-going debate among global political community regarding the potential of QUAD to emerge as a military alliance. The QUAD is focused on maritime security, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief in the contemporary times. Recent developments point towards a more defence-oriented approach as a counterbalancing act to the assertive Chinese posture in Indo-Pacific. However, QUAD members have enhanced their military cooperation, but it is quite complicated due to various indicators.

• Collective Defence Commitments

The QUAD is merely an alignment rather than alliance. It lacks the commitment for a collective action. This is a crucial distinction which does not obligates any member state of QUAD to take any sort of retaliatory action in case of any breach or aggression. While in comparison, the NATO is built on the strong foundations of mutual trust and collective defence action in action of any breach and aggression. Therefore, the most evident absence of the principle of collective action classifies QUAD as an alignment of states due to their mutual interests. 

• Indian Factor

The major drawback for QUAD to emerge as a military alliance is primarily India which has a unique strategic environment. Pakistan and China are the hostile neighbours which pose a constant existential threat to the sovereignty of India. Therefore, India has always been cautious about a formal military alliance. Although, military alliances will enhance the Indian strength, but it will also limit its economic, regional, and hegemonic ambitions. This serves as the main reason behind Indian reluctance to sign a formal military alliance or pursue the notion of Asian NATO.

• Economic Perspective

Moreover, the realistic potential of QUAD doesn’t seem to be a viable option. The immense defence budget of China is 1.67 trillion yuan. According to the current exchange rates, China has the second largest defence budget of 232 billion USD after the US. On the other hand, the US is already investing 40 billion USD to contain China in the form of economic initiatives, diplomatic means, and military deployments. This investment doesn’t include military alliances like AUKUS and QUAD. Therefore, question arises regarding the will of the US to invest in the military alliance of QUAD.

Apart from the US, QUAD members include the states of Australia, Japan, and India. For the fiscal year of 2024-2025, Australia, Japan, and India have the defence budgets of 36.8 billion USD, 51 billion USD, and 71 billion USD respectively. The combined number of these three countries concludes to 158.8 billion USD. Hence, the difference between defence budgets is evident. QUAD does not have the potential to emerge as a military alliance without the heavy investment of the US.

Conclusion

The increased military cooperation between QUAD countries points towards enhanced relations to counter Chinese influence in the region of Indo-Pacific. However, the evidence suggests that there might be a potential military alliance if the security objectives of all QUAD member states align with each other. This includes different Indian foreign policy dynamics along with immense contribution of the US in terms of finance and military presence. With Trump back in the office, the US dynamics are changing. For instance, Trump issued an order to halt all foreign aids. This is an indication of the US strategy to consolidate all its resources to be redirected towards containment of China.

Saad Burney is a final year student of Strategic Studies at National Defence University, Islamabad with an impeccable record of debating over international politics. He has served Ministry of Defence, ISPR, FASS etc. as research intern. Currently, he is serving Pakistan Young Diplomats of IR (PYDIR) as DG Islamabad & AJK Chapter He is an evolving expert on dynamics of South Asia, role of emerging technologies in militarization of South Asia, Chinese military modernization, Indian military modernization, challenges for Pakistan in aggressive military modernization era, and Sino-US rivalry in East Asia.