After seven years of broken ties, Saudi Arabia and Iran declared recently that they would reestablish diplomatic relations. The two countries agreed to start cooperating in areas like security and trade in addition to promising to reopen their embassies in the next two months. An important bone of contention in Middle Eastern affairs has been the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is frequently used as a symbol of the more general tensions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims. Both countries have been battling for influence in Yemen, and Lebanon.

Since dynamic and young crown prince M.B.S. has essentially been in charge of Saudi Arabia, we have witnessed, at least initially, a very aggressive foreign policy from Saudi Arabia, with him in charge of a disastrous war in Yemen.

In response to the execution of prominent Saudi Shiite opposition cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr on January 2, 2016, Iranian protestors seized Saudi diplomatic missions in Tehran and Mashhad. Consequently, Saudi Arabia decided to terminate its diplomatic relationship with Iran. Since then, Iran and Saudi Arabia have been attempting to mend their strained relations. Iran proposed diplomatic talks in 2021 to restore relations with Saudi Arabia which were rejected by Riyadh due to significant security concerns. The two nations had held five rounds of lengthy negotiations in Baghdad by the year 2022. Iran accepted Saudi Arabia's proposal for resumption in relations when Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi went to China in February 2023 and met with Xi.  Then on March 10, it was announced that the effort had finally paid off after several rounds of mediation with the involvement of Iraq and Oman. China, a typically non-active diplomat, had seized the opportunity to try its hand at international mediation. However, that decision took a while to make.

What can competing states learn from it?

The remarkable act of quiet diplomacy between Iran and Saudi Arabia comes with lessons for all nations that conflict with one another. The conflict between antagonistic states is undoubtedly the most common and potentially dangerous of all the processes in international politics. However, bargaining and negotiation are the effective approaches by which actors settle their conflicts. Negotiation by diplomacy is as common as the conflict itself in the international arena, where disagreements can easily turn into highly destructive and destabilizing wars and where there are no established "rules of the game". Similarly, the peace agreement demonstrates bilateral issues can be managed, if not resolved, through diplomacy. Human history is testament to the fact that eventually the outcomes of all conflicts and rivalries have been settled on negotiating tables rather than battlegrounds.

India-Pakistan rocky relations case:

Pakistan and India have a complicated and largely antagonistic relationship as a result of several political and historical occurrences. Since they have long been rivals, their relationships are generally strained. The essence of India and Pakistan's relationship is that they do not communicate, at least not in a formal capacity. The approach to dialogue over the past 20 years has typically been dualistic: either concentrate on improving the larger bilateral relationship to foster enough goodwill to discuss Kashmir clearly or allow the latter to result in greater thaws in the ice for the larger relationship. 

Resolving Kashmir and mending bilateral ties:

With their vast social capital and economic potential, India and Pakistan can grow, and leave their mark on South Asia and the rest of the world. The two countries have a trade potential estimated at $37 billion in a 2018 World Bank study. However, their ongoing dispute over Kashmir, which has sparked numerous wars, keeps them and the region trapped in poverty and disaster. The Kashmir issue is a key barrier to normalizing the relationships that have continued unabated since independence.

Since Delhi and Islamabad are each other's neighbors and improving relations with one's neighbor is the most important factor in international relations, both states need to find ways to establish normal relationships. In this regard, the two parties have attempted to settle the Kashmir dispute in the past. Before the 2015 initiative to improve relations, Kashmir was one of the eight "baskets" of issues covered by the Composite Dialogue. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Pervez Musharraf, and Manmohan Singh all displayed a strong commitment to settling the conflict. A backchannel intended for resolving the Kashmir issue was made possible as a result of strong political wills at the top.

The covert talks only discussed Kashmir, while the Composite Dialogue Process (CDP) concentrated on unresolved bilateral issues like Siachen, Sir Creek, and barriers to economic cooperation. Both India's and Pakistan's priorities were met by this coordinated process. India's intentions to accommodate Pakistan's desire to discuss Kashmir, treating Kashmir as important and distinct, were signaled by the then-Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee's keen efforts to untie the "Gordian knot" of Kashmir.

Interests over Coercion:

It is significant for Pakistan to notice that trade between India and China is booming despite the tense bilateral relations between the two close neighbors. The progressive change in both countries’ attitudes came toward the end of the Cold War. India and China came to understand during this time the necessity of cooperation for their respective long-term security and economic growth goals. China also started to take the required actions to support its claim that it could be a big player on the world stage as this awareness increased. Beijing made efforts in this direction in the 1990s to show a greater willingness to ratify international agreements and also started to forge closer connections with New Delhi at the same time. Putting aside political tensions, Pakistan should also strengthen its economic ties with India.

Between India and China, total trade increased by 29% over the previous five years, reaching $115.44 billion in 2022 from $89.72 billion in 2018. After the United States, China is India's second-largest trading partner. Bilateral trade between India and China equaled $115.83 billion in 2021–22 or 11.19 percent of India's $1,035 billion in total goods trade. While India had a trade surplus of $32.85 billion with the US in 2021–2022, it had the largest trade deficit of any nation—$73.31 billion—with China.

Effort on Pakistan's part:

General Bajwa, the former COAS of Pakistan, quite often emphasized on the importance of stable Indo-Pak ties throughout his tenure and referred to them as key to unlocking South and Central Asia's economic potential. He hoped for strong relations with India because "Pakistan will gain if we develop relationships with India," in his keynote speech on April 2, 2022. General Bajwa often showed his intends to resolve all common problems, especially Kashmir issue, and to focus on modernizing cyber power. He also claimed that the disagreements and problems between the two "nuclear neighbors" have always kept the economic potential of South and Central Asia hostage.

Moreover, the ceasefire agreement along the Line of Control (LoC) is a proof of Pakistan's sincerity and it has been peaceful since a year, following the signing of the agreement in February 2021 by Indian Army Chief General M.M. Naravane.

The Way Forward:

Competing nations do bargain in international relations. From the Saudi-Iran agreement, Pakistan and India should learn how difficult decisions sometimes need to be made in order to pursue larger objectives. There is always the possibility of negotiation and peace for states.

Due to its proximity to both nations and its strategic interests, China can play a significant role in restoring ties between Pakistan and India, if Islamabad encourages Beijing to do so. In the shifting geopolitical environment of the post-Cold War era, Beijing's orientation to both New Delhi and Islamabad can be decisive.

Due to their equal good relations with both of the rival states, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, two Gulf State, can also be very helpful in mending relations between India and Pakistan, if the Chinese option fails to materialize.

The structural causes underlying Pakistan's hostile actions toward India should alter as a result of the country's present economic crisis. Pakistan cannot afford any military escalation with India; as the material power disparity between the two nations in economic and military terms is growing.

Longer-term improvement in the ties is possible given that elections are approaching in both countries. Pakistan is expected to hold elections in 2023, while the general elections in India are scheduled for 2024. Therefore, to initiate peace talks would be a risky affair for the current governments.

Lastly, as mentioned before, the two countries should begin with low-level political issues, such as reopening of trade. This will eventually create space for high-level political issues in the future.

Areej Haider is an undergraduate student of International Relations (IR) at National Defence University, Islamabad. Her areas of interest are South Asian and Middle Eastern politics.