This article analyses the interaction between politics and economics in the ensuing public discourse in Kenya around possibility of an acceptable compromise (henceforth called handshake) between President Ruto (and by extension his government) the opposition politicians. As the debate has now narrowed down to the fate of the country amidst calls by the opposition politicians for fresh demonstrations, it is important to disambiguate the actors and the interests involved, and consequently to infer on who will lose and who will gain if what happens. 

In more than three of my previous facebook opinion pieces, I have consistently argued that a handshake between President Ruto and the former Prime Minister of Kenya, Mr. Raila Odinga, is inescapable, structurally and due to prevailing circumstances. I have recently seen and pitied analyses that have used the sort of U-turn take by Ruto and his team after their ‘extension of the olive branch’ to his ‘brother’ Raila, as implying no handshake and that Raila has been played. Such analyses are myopic to say the least and do not take cognizance of the broader environment surrounding Ruto, his dual interests between now and 2027, and his quest to strike a critical but very delicate balance. 

In this short piece, I build on my previous hypothesis on stability and survival to disambiguate the actors [and their interests] involved in the handshake prospection and counter-prospection and why eventually, a handshake will be the point of a political market equilibrium. I argue that the handshake phenomenon is a complex process of largely open political rhetoric and counter-rhetoric, and is simultaneously underpinned by economic interests which, while very invisible from the eye of the untrained, are the key drivers for everything going on. The interaction between formal political [publicly undertaken] processes, and the informal-and-invisible economic interests of the actors involved is what I call the political economy of the imminent Ruto-Raila handshake. 

The actors in a broader framework

The question of the actors involved in the handshake processing and counter-processing that will eventually lead to the handshake can be seen from different angles. These angles are largely used by the political class involved. While the opposition has framed the actors in this struggle as autocratic [slowly degenerating into an authoritarian regime] government versus a very disenfranchised populace, the government, for the better part of the discourse has framed the process as between a government which is fresh in power and trying to organize itself and deliver for her people on her promises versus a selfish cohort of politicians in the opposition who have perpetually used mass action to push for their agenda into a government they should otherwise be keeping on toes through conventional mechanisms. 

Critically, the battle to the handshake is a battle between politicians and the business class that supported them in 2022. Naturally, borrowing from liberalism, political competition, just like economic market competition will deliver a certain level of public goods and service to the people of Kenya. Primarily, they are not in the picture of the people purporting to be pushing for their interests both in and without the government. If the government did, she would be talking about employment for the youths not short-term remedies such as the internship for the recent graduates. If the opposition did, it would be treating the issue of youth unemployment as agenda one in its so called irreducible minimum, and not focusing Kenyans on elections. 

From the foregoing, we can see that there the handshake is a dynamic process of continuum with the ‘legitimately elected government actors’ through the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party on the one side and the opposition affiliated parties and elected personnel [those who have not crossed the floor to the UDA side] on one extreme end. On both extremes, the common Kenyan – the Wanjiku is used to rationalize the positions and interests of the actors on each side. In between the continuum, there are policy brokers, invisible yet very critical in the process, in terms of deescalating the attendant conflict or otherwise. These include on the business class that supported the government into power and that supported Raila in his 2022 bid. These are from within and without Kenya. Importantly, the role of international players, especially Kenya’s key capitalist allies, such as UK and the USA, have a keen interest to broker negative peace – a handshake peace that won’t treat the structural illnesses facing Kenya such the burgeoning youth, rural as well as urban unemployment. 

The actors and their interests

The foregoing analysis leads us not to less than ten specific categories of actors with varying interests involved in the push for and against handshake between Raila and Ruto. These actors are and their interests are deductively analyzed below. I group them into 7 as other groups have similar visions, thus interests, for the handshake discourse. 

  The President

President Ruto has two main interests. To deliver on his campaign promises to Kenya and to invest in strategic actions that will guarantee his re-election in 2027. To most UDA-allied analysts, Ruto’s political friends and mentees, the latter is the only interest and must be pursued as realistically [in Machiavellian sense] as can be through a mix of state machinery and state-society maneuvers. Such an analysis suffers from the Adichiesian, ‘the danger of a single story’ for two reasons. First, the analysts, mentees, political friends are biased and thoroughly blinded by their interests within this guaranteed re-election. Second, and as a consequent to the first point, they have to work round the clock to paint the imminent handshake as more than devilish. 

On the contrary, and as I have argued before, the supreme court of Kenya (SCOK) ruling  on the transformed Ruto from the radical and populist politician he was between 2017-2022 to Kenya’s president. He must face Kenya’s problems with intelligent policies not propaganda and populism. The new Ruto, the president of Kenya, has, as his first and most important interest: to deliver on the roles that come with presidency. To do this, He requires above all: POLITICAL STABILITY. For this reason, as a president he must make decisions that are UNEXPECTED by the allied analysts, mentees and friends. This decision is ultimately a handshake. From the perspective of Ruto’s interests, a handshake will be the market equilibrium for two reasons: first, Raila has a following that cannot be ignored. Despite the fact that turn up to the first round demonstrations did not go well, as regards Raila’s image as a nation-wide leader, the Raila’s support base goes beyond the Luo Nyanza. The ‘the old man is finished’ argument is fallacious and cannot hold. It is based on recent events that only have coincidental and not long-term impact on the enduring trends in our politics. The argument borrows from the fact that Ruto, while applying late Moi’s political genius, has tried to spread his support by rewarding loyalists across Kenya, across communities, especially those previously seen as Raila’s support bases, and that due to this, the voters from these communities are status quo his in 2027. The voting patterns do not change in an electioneering cycle. Raila learnt this the hard way, with the fake ‘climbing the mountain’ proposition. Ruto understands this than his friends, mentees and paid analysts/sycophant analysts. This is what matters because finally a handshake decision is made by Ruto and not even his deputy. 

Secondly, Ruto’s ability to deliver on his most important role is properly limited by the kind of politicians he has appointed to help him deliver on his the Plan. I have argued before, and there is no risk repeating here, that the click that occupies governmental positions and that were elected on an UDA and allied tickets are on average ambitious billionaires, whose main interest is nothing other than seeing Ruto’s government go as planned during the formation and revision of the UDA alliance, as this is the only guarantee that their billionaire ambitions will be fomented at the end of Ruto’s reign. For most of them, ‘it is our time to eat’ is the one and only drive. This cohort will employ every carrot and stick measures to ensure that everything that happens in this country while Ruto is president is first and foremost making a business case for them. This is dangerous for Ruto, and as unpopular as this argument may be, Ruto needs a handshake to manage this self-created problem because of two main reasons. First, his survival in 2027 is hinged on the support of these ambitious largely young politicians and non-politicians occupying different governmental positions. Hence, he must apply strategic balancing, very skillfully. Raila-Ruto half-handshake provides the president with the best option to tame these ambitions to a given extent, and to deliver on The Plan. On a modified version of this view, with a full-handshake, in the sense of Uhuru-Raila 2018, Ruto and his team could as well silence the ‘old man’ and do their things comfortably without any genuine destabilizing forces. Either way Ruto has the leeway to appear to deliver on his promises, while doing all it can take to prepare for 2027. After all, time is first moving, and a president, the score-card is key for Ruto in 2027. 2027 campaign on the part of Ruto cannot be served to the electorates on a populist plate again. Ruto needs stability to try to do a few things here and there, it is good in the short-term and it is a double edged sword: fulfilling both of the two interests for Ruto. It is the point of political market equilibrium in the current context. 

  The Deputy President

Based on the above, it is evident that Ruto needs to both self-survive now and by winning 2027 elections as well as to also ensure continuity of governance. Without taking decisions which can strike this balance, self-and-immediate survival as well as through re-election can and will be compromised.

However, unlike president Ruto, and like Ruto the deputy president (2013-2022), Mr. Gachagua has only one interest: self-survival. He, like previous deputy presidents before him is swallowed in the illusion of the preparatory face of assuming presidency. That once you achieve deputy president, your work shifts to preparing for how you will be the replacement of your boss when he signs out. For this reason, Mr Gachagua has all the reasons to be opposed to the hand-shake. This is because of three reasons. Firstly, bringing someone of the stature of Mr Odinga will mean compromising some of the officially delegated duties to the deputy president to either Mr. Odinga or a Odinga-Ruto brokering institution. Secondly, Mr. Odinga’s entry into the Ru-Chagua [shorthand for Ruto and Gachagua administration] government mean automatically that part of the government must be given to Raila’s political and economic friends. This is perhaps the second biggest fear facing Mr. Gachagua because and has been witnessed, his task between now and 2032, if not 2027, is to ensure that he has built a very strong loyal political and business disciplines, who will not only fund his 2032 campaigns as a way of giving back to a caring father, but also will be his grassroots mobilizers. Gachahua has learnt this from Ruto and he appears not to want to misuse this lesson. 

But to be sure that Gachagua is properly fit for 2032, he must do everything humanly possible to make wealth (including through illegal amassing) that will enable him surmount a presidential campaign. This, from the standpoint of Gachagua cannot be done with Raila in government. Raila’s entry will automatically mean restructuring the framework of doing ‘national businesses.' Gachagua and allied friends will likely face the greatest of the consequences. But Gachagua has learnt what happened to Ruto in the post-2018 handshake, especially what happened to the image of Ruto, the wealth creator and the self-declared hustler. Gachagua is not ready to take any chances. Actually, Gachagua appears to be having one main task in government today: to do all it takes to ensure that genuine communication channels between Ruto and Raila are destroyed. But the reality of time will catch up with him, as did Ruto while he was deputy president. The bigger picture is always only seen and felt by the president on whose shoulders, all Kenyans are seeking to lean on. 

  President’s economic and Political friends and the post-Odingaism Proponents

Like Gachagua, everyone allied to Ruto cannot support a Ruto-Raila handshake. The ambitious billionaires largely from Gachagua’s Kikuyu tribe and Ruto’s Kalenjin tribes know it so well that the only way out to achieving their economic quest ‘during their time’ is when the political environment is a favorable one. It is not and cannot be favorable with Raila onboard. But the quest for an anti-handshake movement goes beyond just their need to attain billionaire statuses in the post-Ruto regime. It is also rationalized on their part owing to the feeling that they have ‘worked so hard and won this elections’. This means they have a feeling of entitlement as they used both their monies and time and ensure that their bosses, Ruto and Gachagua won the elections. 

The political friends brought in political capital, designed and implemented unimaginable grassroots populist campaigns and to a greater, the win is owed to them. The economic friends brought in both their brains and their wealth to support the course. Both of these groups do not only want to add unto their wealth by 2032 a million-fold, they want and expect to return what they sacrificed to win 2022 elections. 

But this is neither a new nor unique occurrence, it is ubiquitous that elections, world over, are funded by expectant economic and political friends to the contender. However, after elections, realities dawn, and the president becomes the first person to face these new realities. Whether an election was won on propaganda basis, delivering public goods and services must be systematic and predictable. Any element of de-stabilization, particularly in the immediate period after assuming government [owing to the expected confusion that come with it], must be skillfully dealt with. It doesn’t really matter how much someone brought into the campaign kitty that helped the president. The president’s role goes beyond just giving back to his loyalists in politics and business, but also to the state called Kenya. For the state’s shake, decisions as unexpected by the presidents loyalists across the divide may be reached at. In Kenya today, that will include a handshake. 

In addition to the economic and political friends, Ruto has acquired a new cohort of loyalists, those whom I call the post-Odingaism proponents. This is a group of Luo Nyanza politico-business elites, whose main diplomatic carrot in Ru-Chagua government is that Ruto doesn’t have to worry anymore because they are consolidating a politics landscape in Luo Nyanza where Raila is no-longer calling the shorts but them. I have argued elsewhere, that the post-Odingaism framework, though is a good development that will ensure the Luo Nyanza people can increase their survival by not putting all their eggs in one basket, as postulated by its proponents is as argumentatively fallacious and is unachievable within the current landscape of ensuing intra-Luo political class struggle for dominance. 

Obviously, therefore, the main interest of these new cohort of President Ruto’s friends is that the handshake never happens. For this reason, they have to prove their significance to Ru-chagua by for example, organizing meetings in Luo Nyanza that attack Raila and point to his irrelevant in the ‘New Nyanza Politics’ and by bypassing formal frameworks such as holding county meetings without an official participation of the Governor of the respective county – as we recently saw in Migori County. 

These new friends of Ru-chagua, are pre-occupied and simultaneously incognizance of the dangers of a single story. They don’t understand the other side of the story, the dangerous that are yet to befall them in the aftermath of a post Ruto-Raila handshake. Even economically speaking, it would be cheaper for Ruto if he wanted to gain popularity through Raila – the de- facto direction giver, and the undoubted Kingpin, than through the dispersed cohort of the post-Raila proponents. With Raila he only needs to make a single call and entire Nyanza is in his basket. With the new friends, he has to go extra mile, including for example pleasing them each through the Chief Administrative Secretaries (CAS) positions, which is already a big sacrifice on the part of his mainstream politico-business friends and their cronies to whim he told ‘the cow is too big and each will get a portion’. 

  The Opposition Leader

Mr. Odinga’s interests can be analyzed through different lenses and maybe there is no correct and wrong analysis. To me, it just depends on two main factors: from what angle once looks at it, and to what extent one is objective – i.e., whether one is an insider and pushing an emic perspective or whether one is a non-partisan, giving an uncorrupted analytical etic perspective. 

The background to my perspective of Raila’s interests in this push for handshake, dumbed the fight for high cost of living and other irreducible minimums is this: Ruto [and his brigade], unlike previous presidents, seems to be setting a new precedence in our politics: seeking to displace, politically and economically, the pre-2022 members of the dominant class – largely the ‘old money folk’(6) unfriendly to him and his economic goals. Politically, he has rendered the Moi’s politicians without political teeth. With the help of Gachagua and grassroots whipping boys, he continues to render Uhuru not only politically irrelevant [as can be seen in the once vibrant Jubilee Party], but has also to a greater extent divided and ruled the Mountain. 

Politically, he works day and night to render Raila irrelevant. He is using young, energetic and deeply self-interested individuals, most of whom are political failures and former politicians to whip out the only small fame remaining of Raila, after his eventual failure to become the president of Kenya, despite state support formalized through the Uhuru-Raila handshake in 2022. Post-Odingaism, they call it, implies to the exponents of this ideal, that it is already a sealed deal, that Raila now is no-longer the organizer of the Luos and the Luo politics. 

Economically, while not much is in the public domain to be used to connect the dots, it appears that Ruto and his brigades commanded by the deputy president are hell-bent to restructure the business landscape, and displace members of previous dominant class whose continued business strength is the single biggest threat to their billionaire ambitions. The Taifa Gas launched on February this year, despite being tagged ‘a milestone to our clean green energy journey’ by the president himself, is one example of strategic move to displace Raila’s East Africa Spectre Limited, one of the main suppliers - enjoying a good level of monopoly in that area - of gas and related goods and services in Kenya. The attack on former president Uhuru’s Northland farm without any form of immediate interventions by the government, and the speculations around interferences with the former president’s shipping value chains, are only a few examples of the determination by the Ru-chagaua to displace the economic empires of the previous dominant class posing threats to their quest to create and consolidate economic dominance in Kenya and beyond. 

The way the government usually operates is that members of the dominant class, whether friendly or not to the current government can only be co-opted [in the sense that their economic empires remain undisturbed to a greater extent] into the current economy, and if there are conflicts, these are usually off the public eye and ear. Small wonder therefore, the Moi’s, the Kenyatta’s the Odinga’s remain the richest families in this country – politically speaking. 

This is the background for Raila’s quest for a handshake [he has denied it several times, but let’s wait and see before so long]. Ruto’s quest to replace his political and economic empire is last the last thing that Raila would want to experience while he is alive. He therefore has no option but to push until he is able to see into it that a comprise, whether not a win-win – full handshake, is reached. He must secure his political empire and control over Luo Nyanza politics. He must continue to gain from and build on his hard earned economic enterprises. 

  Raila’s political and economic friends 

As opposed to Ru-chagua’s political and economic friends, Raila’s political and economic friends are keen on ensuring that their safety is guaranteed in the current government. For first, the politicians allied to Raila are living in a new reality: they were sure Raila would win for that matter they had used the best of their energies and wealth to prospect for presidency and to paint a devilish image of Ru-chagua. Ruto knows them one by one, and they fear this profiling is not good for their survival politically and economically. A compromise between Raila and Ruto is good for them because they can be then re-profiled, and at least given one or two opportunities pertaining to government businesses. Secondly, owing to the fact that our politics is defined by corruption, Raila’s political friends especially those who have control to finances such as the governors and members of parliament (MPs) who patronage the CDF cannot take any chances but to push for an understanding between their patron and the Ruto. This is the only guarantee that they can continue the corrupt trend of governance without interference from government institutions such as the Ethics and Anti-corruption Commission (EACC) – which if anything works at the will of the government of the day, against those opposed to the government. 

  Kenya’s Capitalist allies

The interest of Kenya’s capitalist allies in Kenya- broadly speaking is rather clear-cut. First and most importantly, they are ideologically opposed to a Raila presidency and Ruto is their capitalist ally. They made this decision long time ago, when Raila replaced his socialist dad, Mzee Jaramogi Oginga. But over time, toward each electioneering period the Capitalist allies have given Raila an opportunity to redeem himself by confirming whether he has ideologically transformed and joined third liberal market economic movement or confirm his continued allegiance to Socialist Thought. This chance for redemption is usually offered through public debates at the USA’s and the UK’s public policy think-tank and/or research institutions. While Most African presidential contenders or their representatives take such opportunities as mere displays of what they really are and what they can do, the Capitalist allies, treat these opportunities as informal and the most important interviews to gauge who their friend really is between the available options. 

So toward 2022 elections, they gave Raila a chance at the Global Institute for Development to put his case, and to convince them that he was their friend. Raila when he took the floor, told USA is their eyes that he was not their friend but actually their ideological enemy. He did literally say this, but a reading of his speech there goes fundamentally in the opposite direction to the Washington Consensus. For example, his free education for all at all stages and the Kshs. 6,000 to every poor household confirmed him as the leader of a socialist movement called Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and consequently and unfortunately so put him automatically as the loser of the 2022 presidential contest. Whether the capitalists class, having understood so well that Raila was not their friend, infiltrated through their intelligence into the Kenya’s 2022 elections campaign processes and brought the luxury on the part of Raila’s team through the concept of deem state is a conspiracy I hold so strong, which may be very difficult to join dots and logically argue for. 

The million dollar question that follows from the argument above is: if they wanted Ruto’s presidency, why would they broker a handshake between Ruto and Raila again? The answer is rather straight forward and can be result from answering a secondary question: why did they want Ruto in the first place: world peace or to protect the liberal market interests? The latter is a logical answer to me. The European Union, the USA, and the UK and other capitalist groups of states and state acting unilaterally see Kenya in two main ways; a fast growing destination for commerce, and an increasingly anchor state in the Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes Region. Any disruptions of normal way of business in Kenya, of any kind, cannot be tolerated by Kenya’s capitalists’ allies. Even more, with the understanding of the history and the consistency that define Mr.Odinga, and the kind of following he has, no Capitalist friend would want Kenya to incur reverse development. Such reverse development is not just bad for Kenya, but also them as they are the owners of the mega multinational companies that repatriate billions in profits to their countries of origin. Also, Kenya has international obligation to pay back her loans - most of which are from the capitalist countries directly or indirectly through the institutions they formed and looped in developing countries like Kenya; including World Bank and International Monetary Fund. 

  The common Kenyan

Unlike the other actors, the Wanjiku does not know what their interests are. They are disorganized, and on average vulnerable. For this reason, they are organized and disorganized at will by the politico-business class. But what do they stand to gain or lose in the event of no understanding/no handshake and continued demonstrations, or vice versa? 

As of 2021, according to one Statista Report(9) revealed that of the 18.3 million people employed in Kenya, a whopping 15.3 million were in the informal sector. This translates to not less than 83.6% Kenyans getting their livelihoods from the informal sector. With consistent demonstrations, most Kenyans will suffer massive hanger as the informal sector majority of them operate under largely works on a hand-to-mouth model. Even more unfortunately, as the hunger continues in the case of demonstrations, their small scale businesses will be the target through vandalism and thievery, causing even permanent damage to their lifelines. This is the worst case scenario for business owing common Kenyans, especially as they are just getting up from their knees as a result of the impacts of COVID-19. So the lack of handshake in a context where the opposition continues to push for it through demonstrations and unavoidably violence, will only hurt the common Kenyan. 

On the other hand, a full-handshake is not good thing for the common Kenyan either. A full handshake will mean the opposition only exists in de jure and never de facto. This is will usher in yet another era for total darkness under the guise of the government is delivering, for example through a few mega physical projects in areas seen as supporting the opposition, to blind massive government corruption. The end result of a full-handshake is irredeemable high cost of living. It can be said, that uncontrolled, unchecked government of the Uhuro and Raila handshake takes responsibility for the greatest part of the current state of living. It was a period of complete silence on the part of the opposition about corruption, thanks to the media that at least brought the COVID-19 billionaires to fore, even if the same government that cheered such billionaires expectedly did nothing at all. 

So generally, the future for the common Kenyan is rather very gloomy. May be a half-handshake: a compromise between Raila and Ruto only to some extent, whereby at least opposition continues with its conventional roles of checking and providing alternative to the government of the day, while also not seeking detrimental avenues such as demonstrations which naturally must turn into violent and vandalizing activities. 

Conclusion 

Based on the arguments postulated above, we can make the conclusion that based on the ensuing political market in Kenya, a handshake, half or full, is unavoidable. While the deputy president and Ru-chagua friends are still living in the pre-2022 elections populist and propaganda environment of the campaign time. While the ramifications of post-inauguration populism have found themselves in the head of the Head of State, Mr. President. The current political market is one characterized one top priority: the need for political stability both to deliver on campaign promises made by Ruto, but also to strategically plan for 2027 re-elections. Therefore, the main concerns for our current political landscape narrows down to the interests of the president as the primary interest and all others’ as secondary and even tertiary. It is this fact that makes Ruto’s and Raila’s interests converge. Ruto needs stability, Raila needs Ruto to go slow on his quest to destroy his political and economic empire. Raila will pursue his interests through all means available at his disposal. The optimal means – which will escalate the conflict exponentially being violent demonstrations and economic sabotage [including calling on his supporters to forego certain goods and services affiliated to the ‘enemy’]. These opposing interests and their negotiations makes a handshake the most likely viable POINT OF EQUILIBRIUM. This is where Ruto’s quest for stability and peacefully and strategically planning for 2027. It is the point at which Raila stops the de-stabilization and agrees to take that which can be offered, provided it can at least protect his political and economic capital that he has built all through his life. This point of equilibrium cannot take to happen from today because the actors at the middle of the handshake continuum – the political brokers especially Kenya’s Capitalist allies, cannot sit and watch before they force a marriage between Ruto and Raila, if they cannot do so by themselves in good time. 
That said, while the handshake remains eminent, perhaps the greatest concern is: what is in it for the common Kenyan? I conclude that it is better a half-handshake than full or no handshake while demonstrations and everything attendant to it continues: violence, killing of youthful souls, destruction of property and businesses, especially of small scale owners. 

Odhiambo A. Kasera is a research scientist. His first degree is in BA in International Relations with Diplomacy [First Class Honors] and a Master’s Degree in Politics and International Relations [with Distinction]. He lectures courses in Community Development, Political Science and International Relations at Maseno University’s School of Development and Strategic Studies.